This is an FPL series by resident Hub statistician Carl Weeks. Carl uses his Algorithm forecasting tool, that predicts FPL point based on spread betting odds, to select his Fantasy Premier League team and make his transfers,

 

Last week I made my transfer of Haller to Vardy and decided to give Otamendi one last chance as he was at home to Southampton and a great chance of picking up a clean sheet if he played. This would give me the chance this week to do a double transfer of Otamendi to Soyuncu and the chance to bring in D Silva into midfield.

I made the transfer the switch to Soyuncu on Sunday evening following a likely price rise. Leicester now have a very high defensive rating and around the same level as Man Utd, making their players good value for money.

With D. Silva being injured means he won’t be joining my team just yet.

In the near term, I am planning on releasing VVD as Liverpool will have a blank due to the club world cup. I may release him this week for AWB (depending on likely price movements and Europa league) as VVD has a difficult fixture and would be going very soon anyway.

If I make this transfer, then AWB will play instead of Soyuncu.

 

Prediction

The predicted (& review of last weeks) points from the algorithm assuming each player starts is:

 

 

This gives a summary position of:

After week 11:

Predicted total points: 610.6

Total points: 582

Position: 1,055,265

A rise of 138,938 a little disappointing as I was in the top 900k on Saturday night but suppose the drop may have been due to Lundstram coming off the bench in several teams.

 

Who’s the champs and chumps?

Looking at each player v expectation we have:

 

 

 

The money shot

This gives the best team according to the bookie odds. For Gameweek 12 the team selected is:

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