‘Expected goals’ (ExG) – Is This The Statistic That Could Help Change Your Season?

After his side had been comprehensively beaten 3-1 and outplayed by Manchester City in October, notoriously good in defeat Arsene Wenger explained that “If you look at the expected goals, it was 0.7 for them and 0.6 for us”. Wenger’s bizarre justification for his team’s defeat was typical of a man searching for an excuse apart from his team’s poor performance, however also highlighted the level of influence ‘expected goals’ (ExG) is having at the highest level of football. If the metric is a valid statistic for the manager of Arsenal, and many other clubs around Europe, then surely it...

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