The best FPL differentials could be crucial for gaining an early advantage in Fantasy Premier League 2021/22.

@FPLTIPZ looks at the best FPL differential forwards under 10% owned at the time of writing.

Callum Wilson (£7.5m, 4.9% TSB)

Last season Newcastle were one of the surprise outfits. They finished the season strongly, moving up to 12th in the Premier League table.

One of the main reasons for their strong finish was midfielder and Arsenal loanee Joe Willock (£6.0m), who scored seven goals in the final seven gameweeks.

Before Willock started this run, it was Callum Wilson (£7.5m) that provided the main goal threat for Newcastle. He returned 10 goals and six assists in the first 21 starts of the season.

This gave Wilson a goal involvement of 64%, partly driven by the four penalties that he scored. It made him both the top goal scorer and top assister at Newcastle.

But it gets better. Using the Hub’s OPTA Stats tool, his 5.70 FPL points per start ranks only behind Harry Kane (£12.5m), Jamie Vardy (£10.5m) and Kelechi Iheanacho (£7.5m). With Iheanacho’s starting berth still in doubt, Wilson could well be the best £7.5m forward on offer.

His form in the early part of the season shows he’s not dependant on Willock for returns. At just under 5% owned, are FPL managers missing a trick?

Best differential forwards fantasy premier league

FPL points per start amongst forwards.

 

Newcastle’s fixtures include West Ham, Southampton and Leeds at home with away matches against Aston Villa and Manchester United.

The Hub Fixture Ticker ranks this as the second best start to the season for attackers, only ranking behind Brighton.

Within the Advanced section of the fixture ticker, Newcastle are predicted to score 6.6 goals over the first five gameweeks. Given Wilson’s high goal involvement last season, the mid-priced FPL forward could be seriously overlooked FPL differential.

best FPL differentials forwards

Has Callum Wilson been overlooked as an FPL option so far?

Rodrigo Moreno (£6.5m, 1.9% TSB)

Last season there was a lot of doubt about where Rodrigo would fit into the Leeds team. Was he signed as a Patrick Bamford (£8.0m) replacement?

As the season progressed, Rodrigo was used more as an attacking midfielder. This summer’s pre-season games have only reinforced the theory that Rodrigo is there to play with Bamford, not instead of.

Despite Bamford’s impressive 20/21 season, Rodrigo actually betters him for FPL points per 90 minutes played (6.22).

OPTA Stats for Fantasy Football

This return was driven by a combination of goal scoring as well as assist potential. Rodrigo averaged the most shots per 90 minutes out of any Leeds player with 3.22 as well as the second most key passes per 90 minutes with 2.17. Only Raphinha (2.44) had more.

Best differentials FPL 2021/22

Points per 90 minutes played for Leeds

Leeds do have a potentially difficult start to the season. They rank 13th for the best opening run of fixtures on the Hub’s Fixture Ticker, however, they have the potential to score against anyone.

Last season they enjoyed a 3-1 victory over Tottenham, a 2-1 victory over Manchester City and a 3-1 victory over Leicester.

Their opening fixtures include Manchester United, Burnleyand Newcastle away with home matches against Everton and Liverpool.

Being priced at just £6.5m gives Rodrigo a huge amount of potential as a great FPL differential, particularly when compared to the more expensive Bamford.

Raul Jimenez (£7.5m, 3.2% TSB)

Raul Jimenez (£7.5m) of Wolves gets a worthy mention in our article on the best Wolves FPL players.

As we know, Jimenez suffered a serious injury that saw him miss the majority of last season. What you may not know, however, is that before his injury Jimenez had already returned four goals and one assist from 10 starts.

This, combined with his 17 goals and seven assists in the 2019/20 campaign, gives the Mexican an impressive 0.62 attacking returns per start over the past two seasons.

Jimenez was the 10th highest scoring player across all positions with 194 points. More impressively, he ranked third on the Hub’s expected FPL points metric. Only Salah and Vardy scored more.

A big reason why Jimenez underperformed in the 19/20 season was Wolves’ finishing. His seven assists came from 48 key passes, 13 big chances created and an overall expected assists of 10.05.

Best FPL Differentials amongst forwards

All players’ total expected points per start during the 2019/20 season.

The initial opening fixtures for Wolves are mixed. After the first few games there’s a nice run that opens up for Jimenez.

The first five fixtures starts with Leicester, Tottenham and Manchester United before matches against two newly promoted teams in Watford and Brentford.

Despite the potentially difficult fixtures, previous seasons have shown that Jimenez has the potential to score against any team.

On top of this, from Gameweek 4-8 Wolves have the joint second best fixtures on the Hub Fixture Ticker. Only Arsenal have more favourable matches.

At just 3.2% owned, Jimenez’ potential is remarkable. We’ve seen what he can do in the Premier League, and his return to goalscoring form in pre-season surely makes him one of the best FPL differentials.

This will be the third and final part of the preseason differential series. Check out my articles on the best FPL differentials amongst midfielders and the best FPL differentials amongst defenders.

Feel free to message me any questions – Twitter or Youtube – @FPLTIPZ


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