Welcome to the best FPL Players for Gameweek 22 article which utilises the Hub’s Comparison Tool available on the website and in the app.
Dan compares sets of similarly positioned and priced players to help us determine which asset we should seek to have in our FPL teams.
Harry Kane (£12.2m) vs Cristiano Ronaldo (£12.5m) | Best FPL Players for Gameweek 22
Going into Double Gameweek 22, many FPL managers are looking at not only Mohamed Salah replacements, but captain candidates.
Ronaldo and Kane are currently third and fourth respectively among Double Gameweek players for transfers in so far this gameweek, ahead of their Double Gameweeks of Villa (A) and Brentford (A) and Arsenal (H) and Leicester (A).
Both will be featuring heavily as captain assets this week, with the Hub’s Twitter poll currently ranking Ronaldo top with around 40% of the votes, whilst Kane is the third most-backed with just over 20% of the four sided poll.
Since Conte’s arrival in Gameweek 11, little separates the pair in terms of goals, with Ronaldo scoring one more than Kane’s three, in an extra appearance.
Ronaldo also has two assists to his name. Kane has actually only played one top half side in that time period, which highlights how underwhelming his form has been of late. Meanwhile, Ronaldo has had a much trickier spell of fixtures in that period, facing three of the current top four.
In terms of shots and shots on target, the pair almost match, albeit Kane did so in one less appearance. Ronaldo narrowly beats Kane in terms of xG with 0.64 more as well as recording an extra two big chances, whilst Kane, unsurprisingly, beats Ronaldo quite comfortably for expected assists.
As a poacher, you wouldn’t expect Ronaldo to create much for his teammates and that is proven again by his big chance creation tally of just one, compared to Kane’s four.
Given the small difference in the pairs’ key stats in this timeframe, I will be basing my conclusion mainly on the underlying stats of the pair, as well as the fixtures and other current circumstances, such as the injury of Kane’s strike partner Son Heung-min.
Price: Best FPL Players for Gameweek 22
Kane is priced at £12.2m at the time of writing, whereas Ronaldo will take £12.5m out of your budget. This is such a minor difference that it will not play into my thinking.
Position: Best FPL Players for Gameweek 22
Comparing the pair since Conte’s arrival, Ronaldo’s heat map looks, surprisingly, not too dissimilar to Kane’s. The United forward does feature a bit more frequently in the 6-yard box and picks up the ball in his half less often, but other than that, once again little separates the pair.
Goal Threat: Best FPL Players for Gameweek 22
Ronaldo (shown in top row) is currently beating Kane’s tally for shots in the box, big chances, expected goals and goals per 90 minutes from our OPTA stats tool so far per start since Conte’s arrival in Gameweek 11.
As mentioned earlier, given how much harder his fixtures have been in this time, I think this means Ronaldo is more of a goal threat at the moment.
Despite Kane being an excellent finisher, his delta xG of -0.21 over this period has been disappointing, and I’d expect the Spurs talisman to rectify that record sooner rather than later.
Meanwhile, Ronaldo has also been a little disappointing in front of goal, and is far from used to underperforming in front of goal, comfortably beating his xG total in each of his last two seasons. Due to this, I expect to see Ronaldo and Kane’s xG totals be more representative of their actual goal totals in the forthcoming weeks.
Kane’s average xG per shot in that time is 0.15, compared to Ronaldo’s 0.18. This means that on average Ronaldo is having higher quality chances so should be expected to put more of them away.
Creativity: Best FPL Players for Gameweek 22
Represented by the top row, Kane is beating Ronaldo comfortably in terms of underlying creativity stats since Conte’s arrival according to our OPTA stats tool. That is unsurprising given his deep lying role compared to Ronaldo’s poacher role.
Despite making over double the xA of Ronaldo, Kane is yet to register an FPL assist in the Conte era, whilst Ronaldo has two to his name in that time.
Kane has also created over four times as many big chances, so it is just a bit of an outlier that Ronaldo has more assists, with one of his two assists a particular fluke as his misplaced touch fell to Scott McTominay outside of the box for the Scotsman to fire it into the bottom corner.
Although Ronaldo has two extra assists over this time, Kane is still far more of an effective creator and I’d be willing to put money on him getting more assists than Ronaldo between now and the end of the season.
Fixtures: Best FPL Players for Gameweek 22
According to the Hub’s fixture ticker, Man Utd have comfortably better fixtures over the next six. They face the likes of Burnley, Southampton, Leeds and Watford in that time, whilst Spurs face the four of the best defences in the league: Chelsea, Wolves, Arsenal and Manchester City.
Focussing on just this gameweek, Kane actually has the better fixtures when you compare the oppositions xGC. Since Gerrard’s arrival in gameweek 12, Villa have conceded the seventh lowest xGC per game (1.2), whilst Brentford have only conceded 1.5 (10th best).
In comparison, Arsenal have conceded 1.4 per game, whilst Leicester have conceded the highest xG in the league, with 2.3 per game. Adding to Leicester’s defensive worries is the fact that they only have two senior centre backs in the squad right now, and the fact that key defensive anchor Wilfred Ndidi is at the African Cup of Nations, and will miss Spurs’ visit.
To conclude, I prefer Kane’s fixtures for the Double Gameweek, but past that Ronaldo comfortably has the better fixtures.
Points Prediction: Best FPL Players for Gameweek 22
The Hub’s Points Prediction Tool projects Kane to outscore Ronaldo by 1.3 PPG in the double, although Ronaldo is by far the better long term pick, projected to score more than six points in all of the next six fixtures. Meanwhile, Kane is only projected to score more than six points on three occasions in this time.
Coinciding with the fixtures, the prediction tool suggests that Kane is the superior option this week but Ronaldo is the clear winner after the Double Gameweek.
Conclusion: Best FPL Players for Gameweek 22
Ultimately, I prefer Ronaldo as the pick going into United’s next few fixtures.
He not only beats Kane marginally in terms of goal threat, but has far better fixtures past the double. I also think Spurs will struggle without key man Son-Heung Min.
That being said, I prefer Kane as an option for this week alone, and if I were free-hitting and could only have one, or recommending a captain, he’d be my pick. As a Kane owner and a non-Ronaldo owner, I will be looking to move Kane to Ronaldo after the double.
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