This article covers clean sheet and goalscorer odds by FPL Salah. He has a four top 1k Fantasy Premier League finishes to his name and regularly uses spread betting odds that are converted into a % format. Invaluable information for any fantasy football manager. 

 

Calm before the storm!

I hope you are well rested from the passing International Break. From here on in its, all systems go as we head into the busiest period of the season. The next International Break isn’t until GW31 in March and we have nine GW’s crammed into approximately 46 days starting from this weekend. There will be rotation, injuries, postponement scares (and possible postponements) and a whole lot of drama. Therefore it’s paramount we go into this period prepared and ready. A strong bench, cool head and stress ball at the ready. In all seriousness, it is crucial a period of the season which if you plan and play right can propel you up the rankings, but if you’re not on the ball can leave you falling way behind. The real run-in starts here!

 

Gameweek 12 results

Gameweek 12 must seem like an age ago now but let’s just quickly refresh our memories. For the third week in a row, we had four clean sheets. Chelsea and Burnley cruised to easy wins for over Palace and West Ham, whereas favourites Manchester United conceded again, despite a good performance and win over Brighton. Leicester convincingly beating Arsenal 2-0 and well and truly staking there claim for the top four while at the same time resigning the Gunners to another frustrating season fighting for that Europa spot. Watford kept their third clean sheet of the season against the Canaries who have fallen off a cliff since that unbelievable win against City (which seems even more like a miracle now). In the last seven games, they have lost six and drawn one and sit bottom of the table.

The goal scorers were a lot better in GW12 with an array of popular options scoring. Ten of the top 20 favourite goalscorers got a goal including the two most popular captains Tammy Abraham and Jamie Vardy. Other popular options like Jimenez, Salah and Mane also notched so it was a good week for the 'template'.

 

GW12 clean sheet results –

 

GW12 goalscorer results –

 

 

Gameweek 13 Clean sheets

The two Merseyside clubs lead the pack this week. Not surprising really as anyone who plays Norwich, especially at home will have more than a punchers chance at keeping a clean sheet. In the last seven games (since they played Manchester City) Norwich have conceded 16 goals and scored just two. Only Southampton have conceded more goals (23) in the same period but that was including that freak Leicester result. No team in that period has scored fewer goals than Norwich so it isn’t looking pretty for the them just now. I have seen a few managers talking about ‘targeting’ Norwich with their captains, and transfers etc which judging by these stats seems like a viable strategy.

Crystal Palace have the scored the fewest goals so far this season at home (4), but at the same time have the third best defensive record at home conceding only five goals. On paper it should be a tight affair, something like one or two nil to Liverpool but I’ve given up hope when it comes to clean sheets this season. The Reds still only sit on two for the season (only one more than Norwich) despite having an xCS (expected clean sheet) of 4.42. Hopefully, the variance will turn soon and Trent also starts getting me those attacking points too, which I’ve been waiting for forever!

Sheffield United host Manchester United in the solitary game being played on Sunday. I think this will be an interesting one. The Blades have the second best home record in the league in terms of goals conceded (4), and also the most clean sheets (3). They also have the fifth best record for SoTC (20) and SiBC. However, United’s away stats are nothing to be frowned at either. They have the second best record in terms of SitBC (32), the fourth best for SoTC (21), and they also conceded the least 'Big Chances' (6). The anomaly here is that though they are still to keep a clean sheet away from home despite having an xCS of 2.23 so they’ve been a tad unlucky. I really can’t see how this game is going to go. Many managers will be wondering whether to play or bench Sir Johnathan Lundstram this week and personally I am going to play him (ahead of Mount). Not only does he have a good chance of a clean sheet, but he also some good attacking returns. In the last four GW’s he has had 11 goal attempts with 10 of those coming from inside the box. He was also the most advanced Sheffield United player in GW12 and came very close to scoring, as he hit the woodwork. With his ownership now at 42% (second most owned player in the game after Abraham) it’s a bit of risk to bench him as any haul will decimate your rank.

 

Team

Implied Probability %

Everton

43%
Liverpool

42%

Arsenal

37%
Man City

36%

Man United

36%
Aston Villa

34%

Leicester City

33%
Watford

32%

Wolves

29%
Bournemouth

28%

Spurs

28%
Sheffield United

26%

Burnley

25%
Newcastle United

23%

Brighton

22%
West Ham

17%

Southampton

13%
Crystal Palace

13%

Norwich

12%
Chelsea

11%

 

 

Gameweek 13 Anytime Scorers

It’s looking like a tough week for captains this week

Start FREE trial to gain full access
Join thousands of fantasy managers and start your free 7-day trial now.
You'll gain access to this article and all our fantasy football tools, tips and resources.
Start your 7-day free trial now and gain access all our fantasy football resources.
Already a member? Log in