The Algorithm - FPL & Sky Prediction & Planning Toolkit  

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Carl
 Carl
(@darkish)
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14/07/2018 11:39 am  

What is The Algorithm? The Algorithm is a statistical spreadsheet tool developed by our resident statistician Carl Weeks. It uses various spread betting odds and expected bonus to determine the expected points for each player. Carl has created this statistical beast so that it can be used in both FPL and Sky games.   What…

This topic was modified 11 months ago 3 times by Will Thomas
This topic was modified 9 months ago 2 times by Carl
This topic was modified 9 months ago by Will Thomas
This topic was modified 4 months ago 2 times by Will Thomas
This topic was modified 3 months ago by Will Thomas

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Pinky and Debruyne
(@pinky)
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14/07/2018 11:55 am  

Bloody hell this is good Carl. Thanks for sharing mate


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Carl
 Carl
(@darkish)
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14/07/2018 12:03 pm  

Really glad you like it. It will be updated before at various times before the season starts (for transfers and to include Telegraph). During the season I try and update on a weekly basis for player stats and spread firm expect match goals (replace my estimates).


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Andy
 Andy
(@aldershotrejects)
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14/07/2018 1:16 pm  

In user dashboard, trying to exclude all teams except the 3 promoted teams but no-one then shows in the top 20 predicted players for each position.


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Will Thomas
(@ffhwill)
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14/07/2018 1:36 pm  

Thanks for this Carl - going to be very useful bit of kit for FPL and Sky over the season. Top work  👍 

I built a website to justify my addiction.


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Will Thomas
(@ffhwill)
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14/07/2018 1:43 pm  
Posted by: Andy

In user dashboard, trying to exclude all teams except the 3 promoted teams but no-one then shows in the top 20 predicted players for each position.

Hi Andy, welcome to the site.

I'm going to leave @darkish to answer this one 

I built a website to justify my addiction.


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Carl
 Carl
(@darkish)
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14/07/2018 6:22 pm  

There are two things you need to do here. Firstly, C16 needs to be set to No, then set the teams you want to Yes. You' still won't get any of the promoted clubs and just players with zero points. This is because no promoted teams have players meeting the minimum number of matches. If you set C11 to zero then it would make these players eligible.

The problem with new teams and players is that they have no past perform to base predictions. These are just based on averages for the position and hence will have mainly the same prediction. Of course as the season progresses we'll start to get data on these players to base projections.


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Mike A.
(@bitterandstout)
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14/07/2018 9:28 pm  

lovely work mate. in regards to xG data, have you developed this as well?


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Ste H
(@ste)
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14/07/2018 9:32 pm  

This is absolutely brilliant stuff Carl. Very clever and useful!


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Carl
 Carl
(@darkish)
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14/07/2018 10:15 pm  

No I didn't develop the xG myself. Originally, I started using shots from https://www.whoscored.com

then I stumbled across https://understat.com/ which is brilliant. Has a break-down by match and player


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Sophie
(@sophie)
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14/07/2018 10:22 pm  

Cool! Very handy Carl! 😋


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Ian Parrin
(@ianp1970)
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Posts: 128
15/07/2018 10:46 pm  

Looks a terrific bit of kit there Carl  👍

Agree with Salah and Aguero being key up to the Overhaul, and with Valencia as the captain pick for weeks 1 & 4 (although neither fixture is that great!)

First time I've logged onto Sky this summer. This is what I came up with in 15 minutes  🤔 

[attach]9[/attach]

Fortunately there's plenty of time to adapt things over the next few weeks...


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Carl
 Carl
(@darkish)
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15/07/2018 10:50 pm  

Very nice team and done so quickly as well. You may wish to change your keeper as I doubt he'll be number 1 this season. Palace have a friendly tomorrow and Ro hinted he'll start with his strongest available starting 11 which may give some insight.


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Ian Parrin
(@ianp1970)
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15/07/2018 11:08 pm  

Let's hope it's Speroni then - the extra funds would allow a midfield upgrade along the lines of Stanislas to Sigurdsson/Walcott (Everton have an excellent ticker for the first four games) or Ralls to Antonio (West Ham have a pair of plum home fixtures.)


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Mike A.
(@bitterandstout)
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16/07/2018 1:20 am  

cheers Carl, I've used understat as well


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Carl
 Carl
(@darkish)
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16/07/2018 6:39 pm  

Let it defo won't be Speroni. Bit surprised that Hennessey started the friendly match tonight, so may be first choice but I was under the impression it'd be Guaita. You'll be pleased to hear PVA has scored two already tonight and it's only half time :)


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James Hendrie
(@jhendrie)
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24/07/2018 4:33 pm  

Hey guys, really like this tool. It's definitely helped me identify my first draft. I set up a league for my pals last year and Dan joined it and won hahaha!! I need all the help i can get this year.

How often will the tool be updated? I've tried to incorporate Allison but hes not in it yet.

I've never felt more like singing the blues..


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Will Thomas
(@ffhwill)
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24/07/2018 4:42 pm  
Posted by: Jhendrie

Hey guys, really like this tool. It's definitely helped me identify my first draft. I set up a league for my pals last year and Dan joined it and won hahaha!! I need all the help i can get this year.

How often will the tool be updated? I've tried to incorporate Allison but hes not in it yet.

Welcome to the site @jhendrie!

I'll leave @animal to apologise for stealing your league winnings haha!

@darkish usually updates weekly I believe. Although no previous history for Allison, so might not get a prediction for him pre-season

I built a website to justify my addiction.


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Carl
 Carl
(@darkish)
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24/07/2018 10:59 pm  
Posted by: Jhendrie

Hey guys, really like this tool. It's definitely helped me identify my first draft. I set up a league for my pals last year and Dan joined it and won hahaha!! I need all the help i can get this year.

How often will the tool be updated? I've tried to incorporate Allison but hes not in it yet.

I'm really glad you like the prediction toolkit. I have updated tonight. I'm on holiday soon so won't update until the final week before the season.

Once the season starts I update on a weekly basis, first once I have corrected the data and then on the Thursday or Friday once I have the spread firms expected goals for the weekend.

As Will mentioned, the prediction side of things is very difficult for players with no data. The player won't appear in the top 20 tables or less you reduce the min matches to qualify to zero (though you then get loads of non playing players appearing). You can put them in the planning section.

Good luck for the season ahead.


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Beerfuelledman
(@beerfuelledman)
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26/07/2018 8:27 pm  

Am I nuts or is Aguero missing in the FPL planning section?


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Carl
 Carl
(@darkish)
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26/07/2018 10:01 pm  

You are not going mad. There was a little bug, eg the name ranges being picked up didn't include the first 5 players including Aguero. I have now corrected this.

Thanks

This post was modified 10 months ago 2 times by Will Thomas

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SM
 SM
(@sm)
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27/07/2018 11:49 am  

Huge appreciation here for this toolkit.  Great work fella!


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ShaunGannon87
(@shaungannon87)
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30/07/2018 6:26 pm  

What is the difference between the top 20 and the bottom 20?


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Carl
 Carl
(@darkish)
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03/08/2018 9:06 pm  
Posted by: ShaunGannon87

What is the difference between the top 20 and the bottom 20?

Sorry for the delay in replying, but just returned from holiday.

The top 20 is the top 20 by predicted total points.

The bottom 20 is a list of the top 20 by predicted total points per £m

Hope that helps.


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Blatch
(@blatch)
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17/08/2018 9:31 pm  

Has the sheet been updated? Thanks so much for making this amazing tool.


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Gary Precious
(@garyp)
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21/08/2018 3:08 pm  

Is there a way to save the document and this still to continue to update? As each time log in i have to alter my team etc

I am probably just being amatuerish at this for the document purposes, but use it each week

Thanks in advance


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Carl
 Carl
(@darkish)
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21/08/2018 9:32 pm  

In terms of updating, I try and have this finished by Wednesday night each week. On the planning page I will be hiding columns of weeks that have past.


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Carl
 Carl
(@darkish)
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21/08/2018 9:42 pm  
Posted by: Gary Precious

Is there a way to save the document and this still to continue to update? As each time log in i have to alter my team etc

I am probably just being amatuerish at this for the document purposes, but use it each week

Thanks in advance

You can save a copy of the spreadsheet either into your own one-drive or to your PC. However, when I update the model your information would be in the updated model.

For your team, highlight the rows that consist of the team (for "PlanSky" this would be rows 14:24) then copy and paste into a blank spreadsheet (some #N/A will appear but don't worry about these). When the next spreadsheet is updated then highlight the rows where this was pasted into the blank spreadsheet and copy, goto the prediction model and in cell A14 paste.

 

Hope that makes sense and helps, if not then please let me know.


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Gary Precious
(@garyp)
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22/08/2018 8:24 am  

Makes complete sense, just wanted to see if another way. Thanks for getting back to me


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Hornet
(@hornet)
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Joined: 11 months ago
Posts: 19
24/08/2018 8:20 am  

Hi Carl - I can't open the spreadsheet - error message says that there is author encryption. Any advice? cheers


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Hornet
(@hornet)
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24/08/2018 10:28 am  

sorted!  cheers


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Carl
 Carl
(@darkish)
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24/08/2018 12:56 pm  

Sorry about that. There is a page I protect and protected the spreadsheet instead by mistake. Glad its working again


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TriXaM
(@trixam)
Active Member
Joined: 10 months ago
Posts: 6
03/09/2018 3:11 pm  

Hi Carl, thanks for such a valuable resource - just starting to get to grips with the toolkit in readiness for the first overhaul. Just wanted to let you know that something funky seems to be going on with the excel sheet in onedrive. When following the algorithm link above it appears to be editable by everyone and the various "PlanXXX" worksheets have gone etc. Should that be the case? I've retrieved a previous version from a few days ago which I've downloaded to work with as it has the right worksheets, but thought I should mention this here in case something needs changing.


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Carl
 Carl
(@darkish)
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Joined: 2 years ago
Posts: 88
03/09/2018 5:15 pm  

Thanks, I've updated the prediction following the weekend games.

I don't protect the pages mainly due to time and I keep a master version. I over-write the public once a week (usually a Wednesday evening), but earlier this week due to the international break.

If anything looks incorrect in the future then please let me know and I'll update the file.

Good luck with the over-haul.


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Hornet
(@hornet)
Eminent Member
Joined: 11 months ago
Posts: 19
03/09/2018 9:08 pm  

Thanks, Carl. The link works but I can't see how to get to the user dashboard tab at the bottom that I used to use....it seems to have disappeared?  thanks


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Hornet
(@hornet)
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Posts: 19
03/09/2018 9:11 pm  

I can see it now - thanks


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Carl
 Carl
(@darkish)
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Posts: 88
03/09/2018 9:15 pm  

Glad to hear it is now working. All the best


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TriXaM
(@trixam)
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Joined: 10 months ago
Posts: 6
04/09/2018 10:02 am  

Ah gotcha, makes sense! Thanks for explaining that, and also for the fresh update ready for the overhaul - just the job, look forward to spending time planning out my strategy over these next two weeks. And all the very best for your planning too, cheers!


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Mike108uk
(@mike108uk)
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Joined: 9 months ago
Posts: 25
06/03/2019 10:07 pm  

Hi Does this take into account blank and double game weeks? For example, it doesn't appear to show GW32 doubles.


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Mike108uk
(@mike108uk)
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Posts: 25
06/03/2019 10:14 pm  

I think you also have got the GW set wrong. The sheet says the current GW is 31 when it should be 30. (FPL)


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