Should we be playing with 5 at the back?  

  RSS

Carl
 Carl
(@darkish)
Member Moderator
Joined: 1 year  ago
Posts: 51
08/07/2018 6:56 pm  

Even before the World Cup has finished, our heads are turned to the fantasy football season ahead. I play fantasy football by the numbers using various analytics to aid my selections and captain choices. The first step for the new season is to gather information on players, positions, and points scored the previous season and…

This topic was modified 2 months  ago 4 times by Will Thomas

ReplyQuote
Ste H
(@ste)
Estimable Member
Joined: 4 months  ago
Posts: 65
09/07/2018 7:51 am  

Thanks Carl. Very interesting read and actually quite counterintuitive. Midfielders always seemed best value as they are lower in price and have more points opportunities than forwards.

Its a shame 532 is the only valid formation with five at the back as it makes it very inflexible. With this in mind, will you be starting with 433?


ReplyQuote
Carl
 Carl
(@darkish)
Member Moderator
Joined: 1 year  ago
Posts: 51
09/07/2018 11:25 am  

My current plan is to play 5-3-2, it's a real shame that 5-4-1 isn't available, but can move to 4-4-2 or 4-3-3 with one transfer. I think 4-3-3 can only move yo 4-4-2 or 5-3-2 with one transfer so in many ways is just as inflexible.

My main worry if ensuring that I have 11 playing players due to the WC


ReplyQuote
Ste H
(@ste)
Estimable Member
Joined: 4 months  ago
Posts: 65
09/07/2018 4:14 pm  

Yeah, fair play. I tend to want to sit and forget defence and use transfers further up the pitch, but maybe I need to reverse this thinking as well? 


ReplyQuote
Will Thomas
(@ffhwill)
Founder Admin
Joined: 1 year  ago
Posts: 236
09/07/2018 8:04 pm  

Really enjoyed this article @darkish. I'm seriously considering 5 at the back now in both FPL and Sky - although agree with @Ste that it's slightly inflexible in Sky - a shame really.

I'm wondering whether last year was an exception or does the same apply to previous seasons Carl?

I built a website to justify my addiction.


ReplyQuote
Sophie
(@sophie)
Trusted Member
Joined: 4 months  ago
Posts: 42
09/07/2018 8:16 pm  

I'd be lying if I understood all those numbers Carl, but I trust they are correct  😛 

Makes it a very interesting option as I always thought 343 or 352 were the was the way to go. 

Is this because there are so many more wingback systems at the moment?


ReplyQuote
scotty
(@scotty)
Active Member
Joined: 4 months  ago
Posts: 4
09/07/2018 8:21 pm  

I get it that the numbers don't lie, but its surely much more entertaining to watch the goals go in rather than hoping for clean sheets. Or maybe I'm old fashioned like that?


ReplyQuote
Paul Jones
(@paulmj81)
Member Moderator
Joined: 1 year  ago
Posts: 68
09/07/2018 8:44 pm  
Posted by: Will Thomas

Really enjoyed this article @darkish. I'm seriously considering 5 at the back now in both FPL and Sky - although agree with @Ste that it's slightly inflexible in Sky - a shame really.

I'm wondering whether last year was an exception or does the same apply to previous seasons Carl?

Think last year saw a shift for defenders in Sky FF @ffhwill with the change in points system, and the style of football with more teams playing out from the back. Would guess that this pattern will continue going forward as more teams try to replicate it.  


ReplyQuote
Paul Jones
(@paulmj81)
Member Moderator
Joined: 1 year  ago
Posts: 68
09/07/2018 9:09 pm  
Posted by: Sophie

I'd be lying if I understood all those numbers Carl, but I trust they are correct  😛 

Makes it a very interesting option as I always thought 343 or 352 were the was the way to go. 

Is this because there are so many more wingback systems at the moment?

It’s usually dependent on the game Sophie.

The pass & tackle bonus system in Sky requires a slightly different mindset to FPL as it automatically makes certain defenders more valuable e.g Otamendi was by far the top defender as he was practically guaranteed an extra 2 points almost every game due to the way City constantly pass the ball between their back 3.

As for FPL, I think you are correct in terms of the wingbacks bringing defenders to the fore. However, I think the pricing this year may account for a slight shift away from the “norm”. 


Sophie liked
ReplyQuote
Will Thomas
(@ffhwill)
Founder Admin
Joined: 1 year  ago
Posts: 236
09/07/2018 9:31 pm  
Posted by: Paul Jones
Posted by: Will Thomas

Really enjoyed this article @darkish. I'm seriously considering 5 at the back now in both FPL and Sky - although agree with @Ste that it's slightly inflexible in Sky - a shame really.

I'm wondering whether last year was an exception or does the same apply to previous seasons Carl?

Think last year saw a shift for defenders in Sky FF @ffhwill with the change in points system, and the style of football with more teams playing out from the back. Would guess that this pattern will continue going forward as more teams try to replicate it.  

You're probably right Paul, It could be that Sky got caught out last year by City's ridiculous passing and the likes of Otemendi have been priced accordingly now... Are you edging towards 5 at the back in Sky then?

I built a website to justify my addiction.


ReplyQuote
Sophie
(@sophie)
Trusted Member
Joined: 4 months  ago
Posts: 42
09/07/2018 9:35 pm  

Thanks @pmj1981. Think I'm going to need to get my head around bonus points system in Sky. From what you're saying it sounds pretty crucial!


ReplyQuote
Carl
 Carl
(@darkish)
Member Moderator
Joined: 1 year  ago
Posts: 51
09/07/2018 9:36 pm  

I haven't been playing long enough to know about trends in points scored by defenders in that they score more because of wing backs or the game has changed in terms of picking up bonus as in Sky. The point is really that defenders are priced much cheaper for each point they earn than other positions. This means you get more bang for your buck and hence favours defence in building a team.

I don't know if this is because it is more fun to see goal scorers rather than keeping goals out (which can be frustrating if a goal is conceded late in the game - though that brings it own excitement).

Strikers are more expensive, though the most expensive striker is more likely to score more points in a week than the most expensive defender and would make a better captain.


ReplyQuote
Paul Jones
(@paulmj81)
Member Moderator
Joined: 1 year  ago
Posts: 68
09/07/2018 10:17 pm  
Posted by: Will Thomas
Posted by: Paul Jones
Posted by: Will Thomas

Really enjoyed this article @darkish. I'm seriously considering 5 at the back now in both FPL and Sky - although agree with @Ste that it's slightly inflexible in Sky - a shame really.

I'm wondering whether last year was an exception or does the same apply to previous seasons Carl?

Think last year saw a shift for defenders in Sky FF @ffhwill with the change in points system, and the style of football with more teams playing out from the back. Would guess that this pattern will continue going forward as more teams try to replicate it.  

You're probably right Paul, It could be that Sky got caught out last year by City's ridiculous passing and the likes of Otemendi have been priced accordingly now... Are you edging towards 5 at the back in Sky then?

Have to admit, I’ve not tried to create a team yet as there’s still too many unknowns with the World Cup etc.  Had great success with 4-5-1 last year though so will probably try to build my initial team using that system.


ReplyQuote
Paul Jones
(@paulmj81)
Member Moderator
Joined: 1 year  ago
Posts: 68
09/07/2018 10:24 pm  
Posted by: Sophie

Thanks @pmj1981. Think I'm going to need to get my head around bonus points system in Sky. From what you're saying it sounds pretty crucial!

Identifying the bonus magnets & learning who are regularly favoured for MoM is all part of the fun Sophie 😉


ReplyQuote
Back Of The Netski
(@netski)
Trusted Member
Joined: 1 year  ago
Posts: 25
11/07/2018 8:08 am  

If we could have a 5-4-1 then I would go five at the back but as it is, I will stick to five in midfield. And from what I found yesterday amongst the promoted teams it could work out well. One promoted side has a forward listed as a midfielder and this guy was banging the goals in in the championship. And at just over £7m that's a bargain. That lets me have one forward knowing I actually have two with the extra points for midfielder goals. And one of the promoted teams has a defender, listed as such, but who was played as a midfielder in the last third of last season and scored 10 goals across the campaign in the process and he's at just over £5m. I went and watched some videos of him and he's for real. Couldn't believe SKY has him priced as they do.

That kind of bargain hunting can allow you to build a better defence which is where the current SKY game benefits you with bonus points and those defenders playing as wing-backs and comfortable in the final third too. The bargains let me upgrade my keeper to a top four guy who regularly performs and I can leave in all season unless a real bargain materialises and have Salah as my main striker, with a prime-priced midfielder at a price that will allow me to make one change to go 4-4-2. A few hours spent researching early may well just pay. We shall see.


Paul Jones liked
ReplyQuote
Paul Jones
(@paulmj81)
Member Moderator
Joined: 1 year  ago
Posts: 68
11/07/2018 10:01 am  

Welcome to the forums @netski. Is this your first year in Sky as it sounds like you're researching and strategising like a pro?

Think I know which two players you speak and if I'm correct then its a good spot. They could be absolute 'OoP' gifts from Sky if they can adapt to the league quickly. 


ReplyQuote
Back Of The Netski
(@netski)
Trusted Member
Joined: 1 year  ago
Posts: 25
11/07/2018 1:12 pm  

This will be my second season playing the SKY game. I got the hang of it last season and had the rules worked out 'in play' rather than on paper after a short while but not enough to challenge at all. Got a handle on it I think to have a good go this season. Played the FPL version for a few years but ended up disliking the format to be honest. The SKY game is more to my liking. I am only going to run with one team and live or die by that. I have two versions I have worked out that I could use, one just covering the first four game weeks with the 'reset' in week five, and one that would cover the first eight weeks, with a captain selection for every announced TV game thus far and no transfers, outside of an injury of course. Took a bit of tinkering mind, and to be honest I prefer the first four week only team so far. Plenty of time to go yet.

Mahrez signing with City now just cements to me that De Bruyne and David Silva are really the only two City players from their midfield and forward line you can trust to pretty much be a lock. Sane, Mahrez, Jesus, Aguero and even Stirling now of the obvious choices look like they could face rotation at any time. Salah/Firmino, Kane and Aubameyang look far better as forward choices than the City pair up front. Man Utd do not excite me at all as holding a regular spot on my team, maybe with the exception of Fred (early) or De Gea. Just not expansive enough to commit to for great returns from anywhere on the park. Trippier possibly signing just muddies their defensive waters still further. Not going near that. The Chelsea keeper and defenders look to have a decent early run of fixtures. Tottenham don't float my boat either early. Fabianski is a decent price but the fixtures early are somewhat deadly. 

The promoted teams have reasonable starts and can always be a dark horse until sides get recent tape on them to adjust to. The week five 'reset' is placed well I think. 

I am liking Liverpool's team reshaping. I may end up with three 'Pool players to start. And I want to see how Mendy does in pre-season for City. He is priced reasonably considering what he can clearly do if fit. Arsenal could provide a decent return after week five if you don't want to use early transfers. Bellerin could have a big season.

Interesting season on the cards.  


Paul Jones liked
ReplyQuote
Will Thomas
(@ffhwill)
Founder Admin
Joined: 1 year  ago
Posts: 236
11/07/2018 6:20 pm  

Welcome @netski. Great analysis there and similar thoughts going through my mind. Will be interesting to see how much it changes over the next few weeks!

I built a website to justify my addiction.


ReplyQuote
Pinky and Debruyne
(@pinky)
Trusted Member
Joined: 4 months  ago
Posts: 48
11/07/2018 9:53 pm  

Been seeing a couple of other stats posts on the benefits of going 5 at the back (talking FPL here). I'm certainly considering it. The problem is I can't see that many premium defenders I like? 


ReplyQuote
Paddy
(@paddy)
Eminent Member
Joined: 4 months  ago
Posts: 12
11/07/2018 10:00 pm  
Posted by: Pinky and Debruyne

Been seeing a couple of other stats posts on the benefits of going 5 at the back (talking FPL here). I'm certainly considering it. The problem is I can't see that many premium defenders I like? 

I'm liking VVD & Robertson in FPL. Maybe a double up?


ReplyQuote
Paul Jones
(@paulmj81)
Member Moderator
Joined: 1 year  ago
Posts: 68
11/07/2018 10:25 pm  
Posted by: Pinky and Debruyne

Been seeing a couple of other stats posts on the benefits of going 5 at the back (talking FPL here). I'm certainly considering it. The problem is I can't see that many premium defenders I like? 

It’s difficult with it being so early in pre-season. There’s so many unknowns still & many of the premiums probably wont be available for one reason or another. 

Who knows what is happening at Chelsea at present & the Spurs boys could still be on hols, so I guess I agree with @paddy that you have to look at Liverpool with Robertson & VvD. Then fixtures wise maybe supplement them with PVA, Coleman & a Utd/City defender if you can nail down a guaranteed starter. 


ReplyQuote
Will Thomas
(@ffhwill)
Founder Admin
Joined: 1 year  ago
Posts: 236
12/07/2018 12:24 pm  

Agreed. Still a long way to go and there could be some decent premium defender options come up - VVD and Robertson look good early doors for sure. Everton and Southhampton defence are worth watching with those fixtures as well.

I built a website to justify my addiction.


ReplyQuote
Paddy
(@paddy)
Eminent Member
Joined: 4 months  ago
Posts: 12
12/07/2018 6:25 pm  

Like the PVA shout @paulmj81. Think I'll pop him in  👍 


Paul Jones liked
ReplyQuote
Back Of The Netski
(@netski)
Trusted Member
Joined: 1 year  ago
Posts: 25
13/07/2018 10:01 am  

I think the Week 5 reset is perfect because a few, if not a lot of the players that participated in the World Cup, even those that were only training and not playing (barring goalkeepers) will need that extra rest. With Spurs and Kane in particular always starting slow, and with Chelsea and Arsenal players either getting used to new managers and possibly systems - with the Belgium players especially needing that rest - it makes sense to leave them out completely until Week 6. It is certainly another way to approach it.

Arsenal's fixtures get that bit easier, on paper at least, after the break/reset, and Chelsea and Spurs (who also will be in a new stadium) will be easier to gauge then, also. For me a minimal Man Utd addition only is needed for the first four weeks with the TV games the way they are. Man City and Liverpool look strong. Everton and Crystal Palace too have decent starts, and even Southampton if their pre-season works out are interesting options. As are the new teams in the Premier League who all have decent fixtures, all things considered. I like several of the options from all three - Fulham, Cardiff and Wolves - in the first four weeks. 

The SKY game I am talking about here predominantly. But the same thinking could also be applied in FPL. PVA and Coleman are very solid shouts already as long as the Everton boss opens it up as he is expected to.


Paul Jones liked
ReplyQuote
Share: