Have you ever wondered what the best method is for selecting a captain? Is it an FPL prediction algorithm? Is it to look at anytime goal scoring odds? Is it to pick the top player in the polls? Or is it to listen to the wise words of FPL tipsters?
This series is all about putting these captaincy selection methods to the test.
How does it work?
We’ll be taking the top three picks according to an FPL algorithm, bookies anytime goalscoring odds, the captaincy poll and those of a special guest.
Each pick will be weighted so that the top pick receives 100% of their points, 2nd 85% and 3rd 70%. Each prediction method will also have one bench pick in case any of their top three doesn’t start. A running tally will be kept to find out that all-important question – which one is the best?
After a brief stint at the top of the pile, The Bookies slip all the way down to 4th place. The Community took the top spot for GW36 and moved into 1st place overall for the first time as third pick Sterling came in. The Algorithm didn’t last long in 4th place with its number-crunching also picking out Sterling’s 11 point haul. Another Manchester City winger, Sane, came in with a decent score for our resident tipster @robwatsonlang to keep the Tipsters in 3rd spot.
|GW36||The Algorithm||The Bookies||The Community||The Tipsters|
|Pick 1 (100%)||Salah (3)||Kane (6)||Kane (6)||Salah (3)|
|Pick 2 (85%)||Kane (5.1)||Salah (2.55)||Salah (2.55)||Kane (5.1)|
|Pick 3 (70%)||Sterling (8.4)||Austin (1.4)||Sterling (8.4)||Sane (4.9)|
DGW37 FPL Captains
With just two gameweeks left, The Algorithm may have recalibrated at a crucial moment. This time around, Kane is sandwiched between City midfielders Sterling and Silva as the mathematical model is backing Pep’s men to run riot in two favourable fixtures. It’s worth noting that the model doesn’t take into account possible benching or reduced minutes.
- Sterling: Expected points – 14.8pts
- Kane: Expected points – 12pts
- Silva: Expected points – 11.4pts
Bench player: Son (10.7pts)
From hero to zero The Bookies have some work to do to regain their top spot. Kane looks strong favourite to be their first pick, although we can’t be sure as the odds for the next round of fixtures are yet to be released. Surprisingly, Sterling comes out the same price as Jesus. When checking other betting sites, he even has slightly shorter odds, edging the English winger above his Brazilian counterpart.
- Kane – odds: 1.53 & NEW
- Sterling – odds: 1.65 & BHA
- Jesus – odds: 1.65 & BHA
Bench player: Vardy 2.00
— Fantasy Football Hub (@FFootballHub) May 2, 2018
The Community has been consistently making solid choices that sees them rise to the summit of our captaincy challenge for the first time. Ahead of the bumper double, the FPL masses put Kane in top spot. City pair Sterling and Jesus could only be separated by a few votes, with Jesus edging his city teammate into 3rd.
Up next for The Tipsters, is FPL expert Richard Kenny, who specialises in a Moneyball approach to playing FPL. If you’re interested to find out more about Richard’s approach, be sure to check out his website infernosix.wordpress.com and follow him on twitter @InfernoSix. For now, Richard has given us a handy table with his top three picks.
Who are your top three picks and why?
Bench player: Eriksen
|GW37||The Algorithm||The Bookies||The Community||The Tipsters|
|Pick 1 (100%)||Sterling (3)||Kane (8)||Kane (8)||Kane (8)|
|Pick 2 (85%)||Kane (6.8)||Sterling (2.55)||Jesus (3.4)||Sterling (2.55)|
|Pick 3 (70%)||Silva (2.1)||Jesus (2.8)||Sterling (2.1)||Jesus (2.8)|
Despite some questionable form, all but the Algorithm are backing Kane for top spot ahead of a kind pair of fixtures. The remaining spots are mostly filled with City’s in-form duo Sterling and Jesus, with The Algorithm giving us a left field Silva pick. Richard’s table has nailed the options and their pros and cons perfectly, so I’ll not add anymore apart from to say that I still have no idea which way I’m going. One thing I know for sure is that its likely to be a season-definer for me… and quite possibly the captaincy challenge.