FPL Transfers Double Gameweek 25 trends and tips from Nima Kafai (overall rank 1,102 in the 19/20 season). Nima reviews the FPL transfer trends each Gameweek and uses the Hub’s OPTA, Prediction, Comparison and Fixture tools to help you identify the best FPL transfers and top tips for Double Gameweek 25.
FPL Transfers Double Gameweek 25
Double Gameweek 24 will be wrapped up this evening after Everton vs Manchester City and Burnley vs Fulham are both complete. We are returning to our first Friday deadline in a while with Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Leeds United at 20:00 GMT that evening.
This is a vital update from Mr Double Gameweek, Ben Crellin. Make sure to read the below tweet, just in case the Premier League do not announce the upcoming Double Gameweek 26, 27 and 28 fixtures before the Double Gameweek 25 deadline on Friday.
If the DGW fixtures aren't announced before the GW25 deadline then assume all the fixtures in this screenshot apart from the blue and light orange ones will happen. pic.twitter.com/Xwzl72NfN0
— Ben Crellin (@BenCrellin) February 14, 2021
The five weeks ahead including the Double Gameweek 26, 27 and 28 fixtures are accessible in this longer-term view. Southampton, Aston Villa, Everton and Manchester City are all under a lot of scrutiny from FPL managers.
Southampton could end up with three consecutive Double Gameweeks between 25-27. Manchester City, Aston Villa and Everton could all have two Double Gameweeks in this stretch. Tottenham and Aston Villa are the only potential addition to the existing three Blank Gameweek 29 fixtures. This makes both teams incredibly enticing as they are the only teams who can have a Double Gameweek 26 but not blank in Gameweek 29.
FPL Transfers Double Gameweek 25 Deadline – Friday 19th February at 18:30 GMT
It is highly recommended to wait till Friday for your transfers, anything could happen between now and then, including the release of the confirmed Double Gameweek fixtures.
This Transfer Trends series focuses on analysing a popular or interesting transfer combination within the top six most transferred IN and OUT players.
In the forward position, we have seen the following trends:
Bamford – 164k transfers in
Vardy – 132k transfers in
Ings – 129k transfers in
Kane – 118k transfers in
This has been at the expense of the following players:
Calvert-Lewin – 181k transfers out
Wilson – 172k transfers out
Antonio 136k transfers out
In the midfield position, the two most popular purchases have been Gundogan with 292k buys and Raphinha with 98k buys. They are replacing Son (101k sales), Grealish (100k sales) and Soucek (51k sales).
Our focus will be on Justin making way for Dallas (£4.9m) – which accounts for 48% of all Justin sales this Gameweek.
Without further ado, onto the FPL Transfers Gameweek 25 tips (Fixture Ticker for Gameweeks 25-30 is at the end to help navigate the medium-term when analysing popular transfer combinations):
FPL Transfers Double Gameweek 25- Top transfers in
These are the six most transferred IN players in the lead up to Gameweek 25:
Stuart Dallas (£4.9m)- Leeds United
Fixtures: Wolves (a), Southampton (H), Aston Villa (H) and West Ham (a)
Dallas has been a real gem this season, especially for those who jumped on at the starting price of £4.5m. Although we associate Leeds with conceding a lot of goals, they have still managed to keep seven clean sheets this season. Dallas is an exciting pick because he has been playing as a midfielder throughout the season, as well as the last four consecutive games.
Underlying stats this season:
- 2,061 mins (23 appearances/ 23 starts)
- 7 clean sheets (41 goals conceded / 44.39 xGC)
- 40 touches in the penalty box
- 26 shots (11 on target)
- 9 shots inside the box
- 4 big chances
- 15 chances created (2 big chances created)
- 4 goals (3.18 xG)
- 3 assists (1.96 xA)
Leeds United play a very attacking style of football under Bielsa which can lead to a large number of goals conceded and negative points returns for their defenders. However as we saw against Arsenal in Gameweek 24, even when they don’t play at their best they still managed to grab two goals in the 4-2 loss.
Dallas has the highest number of goals (4) and xG (3.18) from all defenders this season. He has had 26 Shots (3rd), 11 Shots on Target (1st) and 4 Big Chances (joint-1st).
Dallas has a Double Gameweek in 25 vs Wolves and Southampton. Leeds could get a clean sheet as both their opponents have been out of form lately. More importantly for Dallas, he has a great chance of getting attacking returns in the position he is playing.
Dallas spends a significant amount of time in the opposition half or creating chances for his teammates. He has 389 passes into the final third (4th across defenders with only Robertson, Alexander-Arnold and Cancelo ahead of him).
Predicted Points and Opta Stats
The Predicted Points Tool is projecting 6.5 points for Dallas in Gameweek 25 (1st for all defenders). The 2nd-5th highest projected defenders for points in Gameweek 25 are all Leeds United defenders (Ayling (£4.4m), Cooper (£4.3m), Struijk (£3.9m) and Alioski(£4.4m).
Dallas is a little pricey at £4.9m but whether you should transfer him in for the Double Gameweek 25 fixtures will depend massively on your chip strategy for the next six Gameweeks. For full transparency, I have already sold Justin to Dallas in my own team and will be navigating through till Gameweek 30/31 using just free transfers.
He seems most suited for FPL managers who used their Bench Boost in Double Gameweek 19 and Free Hit in Gameweek 18. This is because he can help them navigate through the Blank Gameweek 29 without a Free Hit. Leeds United are one of only four teams that can have a Double Gameweek but also most importantly not blank in Gameweek 29.
There are plenty of other Leeds United defenders available for those FPL managers who want to have a piece of the Double Gameweek 25 fun but are not willing to invest the £4.9m for Dallas. The cheaper defenders will not carry the same attacking threat as Dallas but it might mean you can navigate the next set of Double Gameweeks with your Bench Boost more easily.
Considering that many are bringing him in for Justin, it is only fair that we move onto analysing Justin both over the course of the season and also his more recent form too.
FPL Transfers Double Gameweek 25 – Top transfers out
These are the six most transferred OUT players in the lead up to Gameweek 25:
James Justin (£5m) – Leicester City
Fixtures: Aston Villa (a), Arsenal (H), Brighton (a) and Sheffield United (H)
Justin has suffered an ACL injury and looks set to be out for an extended period of time. This is devastating news for the young Englishman who had been one of the best players for Leicester City this season. His versatility and attacking threat has been impressive all season and he had a good shot at making the England Euro’s squad.
Underlying stats this season:
- 2,070 mins (23 appearances / 23 starts)
- 9 clean sheets (25 goals conceded / 29.26 xGC)
- 36 touches in the penalty box
- 10 shots (3 on target)
- 7 shots inside the box
- 3 big chances
- 20 chances created (4 big chances created)
- 2 goals (1.53 xG)
- 2 assists (2.53 xA)
Before his injury, he was having his breakout season and sat as the second-highest scoring defender in the game (101 points). He had managed two goals and two assists in addition to his nine clean sheets and had also played every minute of every game for Leicester prior to the injury. Not only is Justin a fantastic player but Leicester had been flying under the radar a little considering that they are the only team to not have fallen out of the top four all season.
Brendan Rodgers has done a great job at making this Leicester team solid and well-drilled. They have been free-scoring and defensively tight all year. They sit in third behind Manchester United only on goal difference. Justin will be a big miss from their team and I wish him a speedy recovery to full fitness.
Predicted Points and Opta Stats
The Predicted Points Tool predicts 0 points for the rest of the season considering the severity of James Justin’s injury.
Comparison of Gameweeks 19-24
We can see both a comparison of his stats over the last six Gameweeks vs over the full season in the two Comparison Tool screenshots below.
The picture painted by the last six Gameweeks shows that at a similar price point, Justin was out-statting Dallas including 40 points vs 23 points. The key thing for me is Justin’s much higher chance of both clean sheets and bonus points. In fact, during this period, Dallas only beats Justin in terms of attacking returns.
Comparison of Gameweeks 1-24
Over the course of the full season, Dallas has earned owners 94 points vs Justin’s 101 points. Their underlying stats are much closer too in this graphic compared to the more recent six Gameweeks.
It is immediately clear that Justin plays for a much stronger team than Dallas. Leicester is far more likely to not concede an abundance of goals than Leeds. Justin is also a bonus points magnet and regularly returned 9-12 points thanks to his knack for getting maximum bonus points.
Dallas does much better than Justin for xAtt Points and Att points in general which makes sense considering he has played many games as a midfielder.
Justin was a season keeper for me prior to the injury. He has now made way for Dallas in my own team so that I can attack Double Gameweek 25 with three Leeds players (I own Bamford and Raphinha already).
If you need a player who plays in the Blank Gameweek 29 and also has a double then I highly recommend Dallas, as long as buying Dallas over an alternate Leeds‘ defender does not block you from your future plans for buying the likes of Ings or Kane for Double Gameweek 25/26 respectively
Alternative replacements for Justin that I would recommend (if you already own triple Leeds or do not want a piece of their defence just for the Double), would be Dunk (£4.9m), Shaw (£5m), Rudiger (£4.6m), Targett (£4.9m) or Konsa (£4.6m).
Fixture Ticker schedule for best FPL transfers Double Gameweek 25 (Attack)
Here is a view of the upcoming six Gameweeks where teams are ordered based on the leakiness of the defences they face. You can access this on the Hub’s Fixture Ticker to play around and adjust filters if you want to get inspiration for which teams to be targeting in the medium term with your transfers.
*Please note the main thing to know is that High numbers are good for attack and bad for the defence in the next two photos. Also, note that without the Double Gameweek 26, 27 or 28 fixtures, the ticker is not gospel yet and the ordering is not accurate so check the number values.
Fixture Ticker schedule for best FPL transfers Double Gameweek 25 (Defence)
Here is a view of the upcoming six Gameweeks where teams are ordered based on the potency of the attacks they face.
l look forward to hearing your thoughts and discussing your transfers in the lead up to the Gameweek 25 deadline at 18:30 GMT on Friday 19th February.
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Good luck with Double Gameweek 25!