Double Gameweek 26 FPL player tips. @RichP_FPL uses FPL points to unearth the key players for consideration for the impending double Gameweek!
Today we will look at double Gameweek 26 from a ‘Using FPL Points as a Metric’ point of view. We will look at the data provided for these specific fixtures, taking the information from the Points Per Game (PPG) sheet and Hub OPTA data and using it to try and help us identify targets to bring in. You will see tables for Fantasy Points both For and Against – Green is good and red is bad in both tables. Green indicates a team is either scoring lots of FPL Points at this position or is conceding lots of FPL Points to this position. The below tables give you totals for and against, tables of points split into home and away games and also home and away on a Points Per Game (PPG) basis. Let’s get started…
Home and Away Data
Home and Away Data on a points Per Game basis
As we can see, Aston Villa, Burnley, Manchester City, West Ham and Chelsea are our top five teams for FPL Points scored by Goalkeepers. Villa get Sheffield United (SHU) in one of their doubles, confirming to me that Emi Martinez (£5.3m) is a great pick this week. Only West Brom and Crystal Palace (16) have had less shots than them (16) over the last four game weeks.
At this point I would usually recommend Hugo Lloris (£5.6m) based on the data, but both Burnley and Fulham have had more shots on target over the last four game weeks than Tottenham themselves! However, only four teams have conceded less shots on target than Spurs (13), so shutouts are not a completely unreasonable expectation. However at £5.6m Lloris is expensive, so I’d be inclined to look elsewhere.
The last shout would be Ederson (£6.1m). Yes he is expensive but he is the nailed player of a City defensive backline that have only conceded nine shots on target in the last four Gameweeks, and he is averaging 5.6 PPG at home. Basically he is averaging a clean sheet every game at home, and has four home games back to back now. Wolves are conceding an average of 4.4 PPG to opposition goalkeepers when they play away, whilst West Ham are in the middle of the road. West Ham are fourth for shots on target over the last four with 24 and Wolves are ninth with 17, but I’d back City to keep anyone out.
Finally, I’m going to go out on a limb here and suggest Jordan Pickford (£4.8m) for anyone mad enough to consider him. Southampton are conceding an average of 4.3 PPG to opposition keepers when they play away from home, with West Brom conceding an average of 4.8 PPG when they play at home. Combined with a lack of attacking output from The Baggies (bottom for shots, shots on target and 19th for shots in the box over the last four game weeks), Pickford might be a cheeky differential shout.
As above, the Points Against Table for Defenders shows that Spurs back line could be in for decent returns in this double game week, apart from the fact that both their opponents are in decent form. Neither side are conceding many chances on either flank so we can’t even attack these fixtures from that viewpoint. If I were to choose a Spurs asset though, it would be Sergio Reguilon (£5.5m). Completely rested in their Europa League game, he’s generally their most attacking defender. Burnley are averaging 21.3 PPG to opposition defensive units when they play away, the third most this season. Fulham are conceding an average of 20 PPG to opposing defences when they play at home, but we do have to consider both teams upturn in attacking output.
I could also mention Man City defenders here, but I think we all know what they offer. We can’t predict who will start, which is the only issue, and why I plumped for Ederson above. If I were to pick one, it would be Ruben Dias (£6.1m) as he seems the most nailed of all of them. He was in action for City in the Champions League though, so one to keep an eye on.
In similar vein to the goalkeepers, Everton defenders also have decent match ups. West Brom have conceded the most FPL Points to opposition defensive units when they play at home, averaging 21.6 PPG. Southampton when they play away are middle of the road, but they are second for chances conceded down their right flank over the last four game weeks (22). Lucas Digne (£6.1m) immediately springs to mind here, as Everton’s most attacking defensive asset. Two big chances created both leading to assists in his last four, coupled with four shots, means he could do well in this double.
Aston Villa were in a prime position this week using this metric, coming up against two teams giving up the most FPL Points to midfielders overall. Jack Grealish (£7.6m) being injured could really impact creativity in a Villa team that have slowly been producing lower and lower numbers for attacking output already. Bertrand Traore (£5.9m) could be an interesting option for a team that are going to need a new creative outlet for as long as Grealish is out. A goal and an assist in his last three games bodes well for him and he might be the one to step up. It is worth noting that whilst Leeds are fifth overall for most FPL Points conceded to midfielders, they have conceded the fifth least to opposition midfielders at home, averaging 15.8 PPG.
Everton’s fixtures once more crop up, with their midfielders playing teams giving up the most (West Brom at home at 24.6 PPG and Southampton when playing away with 23.8 PPG) FPL points to opposition midfielders. James Rodriguez (£7.7m) has a goal and an assist over this last four games, but rarely gets past 65 minutes. He could be worth a gamble if you’re after someone that’s lowly owned.
I’m becoming increasingly interested in Gareth Bale (£9.3m) as a differential as well. He is starting to pass the eye test more frequently and got an assist against West Ham at the weekend, in addition to hitting the crossbar. He also scored in Europa League action, surely forcing his way into Jose Mourinho’s thinking. Burnley are just outside of the top five teams giving up the most FPL Points to midfielders when they play away, but Fulham are third for most FPL points conceded to opposition midfielders at home, averaging 20.2 PPG. Another positive influence Bale is having is on Harry Kane (£11.1m), as he was doing more of the “Quarterback Role” stuff that Kane has been doing. This meant Kane was able to play a more advanced role, but more on him later. Whilst Heung-Min Son (£9.5m) has regressed from some pretty impressive underlying stats, he’ll always be a threat in that team, so is also one to consider.
As with the defenders, I could suggest Man City midfielders in detail here, but we just don’t know who will play! Kevin De Bruyne (£11.8m) is now back to fitness and started on the bench for City in their Champions League game, so he could be a great differential option. Ilkay Gundogan (£6.1m) has been an absolute cheat code in recent weeks, with four goals and two assists in his last four games. Purely on value, Gundogan is still a smart play, but with all City assets we have to take the rotation into account. Wolves are conceding an average of 19.3 PPG to opposition midfield units when they play away, the fifth most in the league. West Ham haven’t been as forgiving though, conceding only 16.8 PPG at this position when they play away, just outside the bottom five. City are a class apart though, so they could haul against anyone.
Ollie Watkins (£6.5m) may still be an intriguing option this week, coming up against a Leeds side conceding an average of 6.9 PPG to opposition forwards when playing at home, and a SHU side only marginally behind that conceding 6.7 PPG to the same position. Someone needs to score the goals for Villa and maybe Watkins can pick up the baton. Leeds and SHU are fourth and fifth respectively for shots on target conceded over the last four game weeks (24 and 23 respectively). The only issue is that Villa at the forward position are only scoring an average of 3.3 PPG away from home. Over the last four game weeks, only Crystal Palace have a lower xG. So Watkins comes with some risk.
Dominic Calvert-Lewin (£7.6m) and Richarlison (£7.9m) are both attractive options this week. Both of their opponents are in the top five for FPL Points conceded to forwards when we look at PPG in the home table (West Brom) and away table (Southampton). Everton are averaging the most FPL Points per game at the forward position when they play away, averaging 10.1 PPG. Going to West Brom, who concede an average of 8.8 PPH (second only to Crystal Palace), they could have a great chance of getting returns. Looking at the players individually, Richarlison has two in two and Calvert-Lewin was in great form until he injured his hamstring. He looks to be back to full fitness now though, so he could wreak havoc this weekend. Southampton have conceded the most shots on target over the last four game weeks (32) and whilst those numbers are inflated by the 9-0 drubbing they received away to Man United, they’ve just shipped three to Leeds as well. Both fixtures look good on paper for The Toffees.
The final player I’ll mention here is Harry Kane (£11.1m). In terms of FPL Points conceded to forwards, Burnley are fifth overall and Fulham are sixth. Whilst Spurs have looked a bit flat, Kane has looked sharp as ever, and with Bale doing a lot of his work in the middle of the pitch against West Ham, Kane was in the position where he thrives. He is still getting plenty of volume as well, with only Patrick Bamford (£6.9m) having more shots than him over the last four game weeks. As mentioned earlier, we do need to consider both Burnley and Fulham’s uptick in defensive resoluteness in recent weeks. However, Kane has a great record against these teams, and whilst this doesn’t factor too heavily for me, we have to remember he is an elite striker that is also on penalties.
Well there we have it. I hope you’ve found this interesting and would love to hear your thoughts on it! Drop me a follow @RichP_FPL.