Gameweek 27 Fantasy Premier League transfer tips and differentials series from @FPLTIPZ where he scours the FPL market for low-owned players with the potential to pick up big points to help shoot you up the rankings. Each week he uses our OPTA stats tool to pick out three players for the coming five Gameweeks for consideration for your FPL transfer who are currently under 10% owned from a variety of price points and teams. Written before the conclusion of Gameweek 27.
Double Gameweek 27 FPL Differentials
The Defender Differential – Cesar Azpilicueta – £5.7m, 4.9% owned
Since Chelsea changed manager to Thomas Tuchel, no team has conceded fewer goals than Chelsea, not even Manchester City who have some of the most popular defenders in Fantasy Premier League due to keeping 10 clean sheets in the last 15 Gameweeks. This defensive form has not been surprising either as Chelsea have conceded the fewest big chances and fewest expected goals over the last six Gameweeks. However, out of the Chelsea defenders, it is Azpilicueta that provides a consistent level of returns. Azpilicueta is one of two Chelsea defenders to start every match over the past seven Gameweeks and adds an attacking threat on top of this. Using the Hub’s OPTA stats tool, Azpilicueta has both goal threat with three shots from inside the box and on target since Gameweek 20 as well as assist potential having made seven key passes. This means that overall since Tuchel took over, the Spanish defender has the highest expected points out of every Chelsea player.
There are also a few other differentials within the Chelsea defence, firstly Rudiger at £4.6m, however, there is less goal threat than Azpilicueta and secondly Alonso at £5.7m. The Spaniard has the most attacking threat with the most expected goals and assists but there is rotation threat with Chilwell as Alonso has only started four of the last seven matches.
Chelsea’s upcoming fixtures rank first on the Hub’s Fixture Ticker for the best defensive fixtures over the next five Gameweeks. These fixtures include Everton, West Brom and Brighton at home with away matches against Leeds and Crystal Palace away. Brighton, West Brom and Crystal Palace have all averaged less than one goal per game over the last six Gameweeks with Everton scoring 1.29 and Leeds scoring 1.57. In addition, Leeds may pose the biggest threat to the clean sheets of the Chelsea defenders, however, Leeds do rank first for headed chances conceded and so with the number of crosses that Azpilicueta makes during matches there is an increased chance for an attacking return specifically in this fixture. It is worth remembering that Chelsea do have a blank Gameweek in Gameweek 29.
The Midfielder Differential – Raphinha – £5.4m, 9.5% owned
Over the last seven Gameweeks, Raphinha has the second-highest expected points out of any player in the league. This is due to the Brazilian midfielder combining both assist potential with goal threat. The Hub’s OPTA stats tool shows that Raphinha has had 9 shots on target over the past seven Gameweeks which ranks the £5.4m midfielder second in the league only behind Aston Villa forward Ollie Watkins. However, it is the assist potential that Raphinha adds to this goal threat that sets the Brazilian above the competition and could make him a strong differential. The 23 key passes and six big chances created leading to 3.69 expected assists is the most out of any player in the league over the last six Gameweeks. This means that even at just £5.4m Raphinha has the potential to produce returns that rivals more premium assets in the likes of Salah and Kevin De Bruyne.
The upcoming fixtures for Leeds could also allow Raphinha to continue on the strong form the Brazilian Midfielder has shown. These fixtures include Fulham, West Ham and Manchester City away with home matches against Sheffield United and Chelsea. In the reverse fixtures against these five teams, Leeds scored against each of them and averaged 1.6 goals per fixture. This shows that even in some of the more challenging fixtures against Manchester City and Chelsea, there is potential for Raphinha to get attacking returns. On top of this, there is also the benefit of Leeds not having a Blank Gameweek in Gameweek 29 which makes Raphinha an even more appealing differential for managers who do not plan on playing their free hit in this Gameweeks.
The Forward Differential – Timo Werner – £9.2m, 11.6% owned
The ownership of Werner is above 10% as a differential, however, looking at active teams within the top one million the ownership of the Chelsea forwards is much lower making the German forward potentially a good differential if Fantasy Managers are looking to climb up into the top rankings.
Timo Werner was one of the most popular assets at the start of the season, however, with just four goals in the opening fifteen Gameweeks, the ownership and price of the German forward has fallen. However, since Tuchel has taken over at Chelsea, Werner looks to be back to his best and as a result, the German ranks second for expected points scored for forwards behind only Bamford, despite playing the least amount of minutes out of any of the forwards in the top six. The reason for this is because Werner has combined both goal threat with assist potential as the German forward now often lines up alongside another forward in the likes of Giroud or Abraham. Werner has had 11 shots inside the box over those six matches which ranks fourth amongst forwards, however, the key statistic is that Werner has had 6 big chances across the last six Gameweeks which is more than any other forward across this time. This also ranks Werner second across all players only behind Mohamed Salah who has received eight big chances across the same time period but the Egyptian has played 90 minutes more. Werner also combines assist potential with this goal threat with three assists in the last six Gameweeks coming from six key passes he has made since the change in management. He has also been fouled for two penalties.
As well as the strong form that Werner has shown under new manager Thomas Tuchel, the upcoming fixtures for Chelsea could allow the German forward to continue on this form and potentially increase the returns for Fantasy Managers. The next five fixtures include home matches against Everton, West Brom and Brighton with away matches against Leeds and Crystal Palace which ranks third for the best-attacking fixtures over this period on the Hub’s Fixture Ticker. All of these teams, except for Brighton, rank in the bottom half for goals conceded over the past seven Gameweeks and have conceded at least 1.4 goals per game on average.
Thanks for reading – Feel free to message me any questions – Twitter – @FPLTIPZ