FPL Transfer trends and tips for Double Gameweek 27 from Nima Kafai (overall rank 1,102 in the 19/20 season). Nima reviews the FPL transfer trends each Gameweek and uses the Hub’s OPTA, Prediction, Comparison and Fixture tools to help you identify the best FPL transfers and top tips for Double Gameweek 27.
FPL Transfers Double Gameweek 27
Double Gameweek 26 was the largest Double Gameweek in history. I should have known at the time that the biggest does not equal best! We had seven extra fixtures but the 17 games did not live up to the hype and excitement.
The seven weeks ahead including Double Gameweek 27 and potential Double Gameweek 28 fixtures are accessible in this longer-term view from Ben Crellin. This fixture ticker also includes both Blank Gameweek 29 and 33 to help us plan ahead. If Everton vs Aston Villa is not moved to Gameweek 28, it could form a Double Gameweek 30 instead.
Tottenham Hotspur will also end up with another Double in either Gameweek 32 or 37, depending on who wins the FA Cup Quarter Final game between Manchester City and Everton.
Here's a simple version of the FPL schedule from GW26 to GW33.
If Aston Villa vs Everton doesn't move to GW28 then it could move to a different UCL midweek (GW 30/31/33/34) or the final free midweek, GW37. pic.twitter.com/uUnFFO9qCd
— Ben Crellin (@BenCrellin) February 19, 2021
FPL Transfers Double Gameweek 27 Deadline – Saturday 6th March at 11:00 GMT
It is highly recommended to wait till as close to the deadline, as possible, before making your moves. Anything could happen between now and then, including injuries or Covid infections to your players or transfer targets.
This Transfer Trends series focuses on analysing a popular or interesting transfer combination within the top six most transferred IN and OUT players.
In the forward position, we have seen the following trends:
Calvert-Lewin – 280k transfers in
Kane- 104k transfers in
Antonio- 91k transfers in
Watkins- 48k transfers in
At the expense of the following players:
Calvert-Lewin- 112k transfers out
Bamford – 65k transfers out
Vardy – 55k transfers out
This is playing out as Vardy to Kane transfers and Calvert–Lewin to either Kane or Antonio transfers.
In the midfield position, the most popular move is Lingard with 278k buys and Mount with 205k buys. They are replacing Barnes (678k sales), Maddison (206k sales) and Grealish (165k sales).
Our focus will be on Barnes (£6.9m) making way for Lingard (£6m) – which accounts for 45% of all Barnes’ sales this Gameweek. On a side note, Raphinha (£5.4m) accounts for another 11% of Barnes‘ sales. Mount (£6.8m) only accounts for 8% of his sales, despite the mass transfers in.
Without further ado, onto the FPL Transfers Gameweek 27 tips (Fixture Ticker for Gameweeks 27-32 is at the end to help navigate the medium-term when analysing popular transfer combinations):
FPL Transfers Double Gameweek 27- Top transfers in
These are the six most transferred IN players in the lead up to Gameweek 27:
Jesse Lingard (£6m) – West Ham United
Fixtures: Leeds (H), Manchester United (a), Arsenal (H) and Wolverhampton Wanderers (a)
Lingard has been brilliant for West Ham since joining on loan in the January transfer window. Since his first game in Gameweek 22, he has three goals (2nd) and two assists (3rd) in just five matches. This is a goal involvement of 56% of the nine goals West Ham have scored since his arrival.
Underlying stats this season:
- 440 mins (5 appearances/ 5 starts)
- 20 touches in the penalty box
- 16 shots (9 on target)
- 8 shots inside the box
- 1 big chance
- 5 chances created (2 big chances created)
- 3 goals (1.81 xG)
- 2 assists (1.34 xA)
Lingard will not be eligible to play in Gameweek 28 vs his parent club Manchester United. However, at just £6m he is of incredible value for the form he has shown since his arrival at West Ham. In fact, he has similar underlying attacking numbers as Raphinha in the last four Gameweeks.
More positively he does play in one of only four fixtures in Blank Gameweek 29 vs Arsenal. I will never forgive him for his milly rock dance celebration at the Emirates all those years ago!
The Hammers play against Leeds United this week. This is a great game for an in-form West Ham, who are 6th in the Premier League but with a game in hand. If they win that game in-hand they are back in fourth position again. West Ham are seventh for Big Chances this season (51).
Leeds concede shots and goals for fun. They have conceded 143 Shots on Target (19th) and 63 Big Chances (19th). This has equated to 44 goals conceded (19th). They also struggle on set-pieces which should be great fun for the likes of Antonio and Soucek this week. Don’t get me wrong, Leeds score a lot of goals for fun too but they are definitely more open at the back due to their aggressive playing style.
Predicted Points and Opta Stats
The Predicted Points Tool is projecting 3.9 points for Lingard in Gameweek 27 (20th for midfielders). Of course, it depends on which Leeds show up.
I like the Lingard pick but beyond the Leeds game, I am not convinced he is the best Barnes‘ replacement to be buying with the medium to long-term in mind.
If you have your second Wildcard and may sell him in Gameweek 30/31, then the fact he plays in Blank Gameweek 29 is appealing. Personally, I would be prioritising the likes of Raphinha, Mount, Saka or punting on Jota.
Considering that many are bringing him in for Barnes, it is only fair that we move onto analysing Barnes.
FPL Transfers Double Gameweek 27 – Top transfers out
These are the six most transferred OUT players in the lead up to Gameweek 27:
Harvey Barnes (£6.9m) – Leicester City
Fixtures: Brighton (a), Sheffield United (H), Blank and Manchester City (H)
Barnes has been one of my favourite players in the Premier League this year. He looked like he was going to play his way into the England squad for the Euros too. His nine goals and five assists are impressive in his breakout year.
I was really upset to see him go off with a knee injury in the first game of the Double Gamweek, earning owners only one point. He was the most transferred in player, of the Double Gameweek, with over 1 million transfers in.
Underlying stats this season:
- 1,949 mins (25 appearances / 22 starts)
- 102 touches in the penalty box
- 56 shots (26 on target)
- 40 shots inside the box
- 9 big chances
- 26 chances created (1 big chance created)
- 9 goals (7.47 xG)
- 5 assists (3.05 xA)
On Monday, Brendan Rodgers said of Barnes:
“We’re hopeful that he’ll be going in for surgery tomorrow. Part of the patella is separated in the knee, that’s come away, so it’s just a repair job there and hopefully he can be back in six weeks. It is much better news that what we thought it could have been, especially after JJ [James Justin’s] injury, so that’s where we’re at with him. He’ll hopefully be close to playing by that stage. It’s just a clean up on the knee and working his way back and then hopefully it’ll be around about six weeks.”
Leicester had two great upcoming fixtures vs Brighton and Sheffield United which was one of the many reasons that Barnes was the most transferred in player last week. Due to the nature of his injury, it is definitely time to replace him.
Comparison of Gameweeks 21-26
We can see both a comparison of his stats over the last six Gameweeks in the Comparison Tool screenshots below (please note Lingard has only played the last five Gameweeks this season)
The picture painted by the last six Gameweeks shows that Lingard has been outperforming Barnes on all fronts except for Key Passes. Considering how highly rate Barnes was and the 1 million transfers for him last week, it is clear why Lingard is now the most popular go-to replacement for the Foxes midfielder.
Comparison of Gameweeks 1-26
Lingard’s first minute of football this season came for West Ham in Gameweek 22 and as such, there is no data to analyse across the longer term this week.
Moving Barnes to Lingard, is a high upside move this Gameweek with Lingard facing Leeds. I don’t think he is the best replacement though with no match in Gameweek 28 and Arsenal in Gameweek 29.
I would be looking at the likes of Raphinha (£5.4m), Saka (£5.2m), Mount (£6.8m) or even Jota (£6.6m). I can understand the appeal in Lingard, his own form, West Ham’s form and the opponent in Gameweek 27 are clearly good reasons to buy him. The fact he doesn’t blank in Gameweek 29 is another big win. But he is just not for me.
Fixture Ticker schedule for best FPL transfers Double Gameweek 27 (Attack)
Here is a view of the upcoming six Gameweeks where teams are ordered based on the leakiness of the defences they face. You can access this on the Hub’s Fixture Ticker to play around and adjust filters if you want to get inspiration for which teams to be targeting in the medium term with your transfers.
*Please note the main thing to know is that High numbers are good for attack and bad for the defence in the next two photos. Also, note that the Double and Blank Gameweeks mess with the ordering. The ticker order is not accurate so check the number values.
Fixture Ticker schedule for best FPL transfers Double Gameweek 27 (Defence)
Here is a view of the upcoming six Gameweeks where teams are ordered based on the potency of the attacks they face.
l look forward to hearing your thoughts and discussing your transfers in the lead up to the Gameweek 27 deadline at 11:00 GMT on Saturday 6th March.
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Good luck with Double Gameweek 27!