Continuing our brand new series that will be taking a brief snapshot of our four top picks based on these four FPL fundamentals:

1. Form

Often the common denominator and what everyone seems to go on. Its important, but not the whole story.

2. Fixtures

Lets face it, FPL picks aren’t for the one week. If you’re bringing someone in, you should be looking toward at least the next 4 gameweeks. Often the precursor to form, frisking the fixtures allows you to get the jump on the top picks in before your rivals.

3. Value

The most important concept to get your head around for FPL. We have a budget and every million counts.

4. Underlying stats

What people often forget is that last weeks points are gone. Its a players future points potential that matters most and underlying stats are a crucial component to gauging this.

Top Defender – Azpilicueta

Chelsea Chelsea Chelsea. If you haven’t got any of them, take a long hard look at their upcoming games and then bring them in. Resolute Spanish defender ‘Azpi’ has been a stalwart in the Chelsea backline for years, but was unexpectedly rested midweek. We’re hopeful that this now makes him almost a certain starter heading into the busy Christmas fixture list.

Form – 5.8ppg to date, that’s joint top with Morata amongst Chelsea players.

Fixtures -This is what FPL managers dream off. A run of fixtures that couldn’t be any better in all honestly and stretch all the way to GW25. 

Value – At 6.9, he’s not cheap for a defender. But he’s joint top for overall points for players under 7million (with Gross) – its hard to argue that is bad value.

Underlying stats – Along with a seemingly telepathic relationship with Morata, Aspi’s secret weapon is his underlying BPS. A cleansheet often means a tidy 7-9 points rather than the usual 6. That adds up and means he pips fellow Chelsea defender Alonso as our top defensive pick.

  • Form 75% 75%
  • Fixtures 100% 100%
  • Value 70% 70%
  • Underlying stats 70% 70%

Top Midfielder – Hazard

We’re just going to presume that you already have Salah. The next top midfielder has to be Hazard. Owners may rightly be frustrated that the Belgium was rested midweek, but like Aspi, we believe that’s actually good news for his future starts.

Form – Hazard passes the ‘eye’ with flying colours. Playing behind the Morata in recent outings, he seems to have been given a new lease of life (as if his old one was bad).

Fixtures – See above. Rediculous.

Value – Not cheap, but you get what you pay for.

Underlying stats – Decent underlying stats. Only Salah has more shots on target over the last four gameweeks. Like Aspilicuatta, Hazard has a monopoly on underlying  BPS, meaning that an assist could well net him an extra three bonus points. That’s not to be sniffed at.

  • Form 85% 85%
  • Fixtures 100% 100%
  • Value 35% 35%
  • Underlying stats 70% 70%

Top Forward – Kane

Last time out we backed Kane. He re-payed our faith with back to back goals. We can’t see anything, or anyone, that can nudge him off the top spot. The only striker that is running him close is Morata.

Form – Mr reliable? Maybe not yet, but he certainly has been putting in the performances and goals (even if Spurs haven’t!).

Fixtures – Only Chelsea have better fixtures over the next eight weeks. Kane’s only real obstacle is the visit of City in four weeks time.

Value – He’s fast justifying his lofty price tag.

Underlying stats – For players that have two or more starts, Kane is top for minutes per chance over the last four gameweeks.

  • Form 80% 80%
  • Fixtures 85% 85%
  • Value 35% 35%
  • Underlying stats 80% 80%

The Punt – Rooney

While Kane and Morata may be the ‘top’ forwards to own, if you’re looking to roll of the dice, we fancy Wayne to turn back the clock.

Form – He’s the type of player that tends to go on streaks. Smashing in a hat trick last week, and with big Sam coming in, he could well go on a hot run.

Fixtures – Not bad. A plum home tie with a tired Huddersfield is followed up with clashes against Newcastle, Swansea, Bournemouth, West Brom and Bournemouth in the next seven.

Value – At 7.2 he offers great value for his points potential.

Underlying stats – Having only played 1 of the last 3 matches, its difficult to fully analyse Rooney’s underlying numbers. That said, they could be better and suggest he may have been a tad fortunate to bag three goals. We are backing him to start putting in the numbers as he aims to become Big Sam’s main man.

  • Form 75% 75%
  • Fixtures 75% 75%
  • Value 75% 75%
  • Underlying stats 60% 60%

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