Andrew Gower is an FPL veteran of 11 years with a superb record including seven times top 25k finishes, two top 10k finishes and a best overall rank of 2,399. Andrew will be sharing his thoughts via a series of articles for Fantasy Football Hub.

For my first article I am going to look at which FPL attacking players could be beneficial to own for the last six fixtures of the season. I am using the last six because many players will be using chips over the first few Gameweeks back and could become more reliant on a more ‘stable’ squad for the run-in.

I am going to do this by firstly looking at which teams have performed badly defensively over the past six Gameweeks and also over the course of the season. I will then look at which teams will be playing these  “poor defensive” sides in the remaining six fixtures and then looking at the stats of the players in these teams to identify some key attacking personnel.

Defensive Stats

Ok so first up let’s look at the defensive stats. Firstly the stats I am looking at per game from the Hub’s OPTA stats tool are (all conceded):

  • Shots in the Box
  • Shots on Target
  • Big Chances
  • Goals Conceded

I calculated the above stats and filtered out those with the worst “above average” numbers. This gave me the following teams:

Aston Villa, Bournemouth, Spurs, West Ham, Southampton, Norwich and Newcastle. These, essentially, are the worst performing defences over the past six Gameweeks.

Next I looked at the same but this time for the whole season so far, this gave me the below teams as the worst defensively:

Aston Villa, Norwich, West Ham, Newcastle, Bournemouth, Spurs, Southampton, Arsenal, Brighton, Watford and Crystal Palace. These were all above the average on numbers.

Next I decided to look at which teams appear on both of the lists, this would give the teams to concentrate on. So, let’s see who we have:

Aston Villa, Bournemouth, Spurs, West Ham, Southampton, Norwich and Newcastle.

Yes, exactly the same as the first list. These teams are looking like they have the worst defences not only recently, but also over the course of the season. So now we have established the teams let’s now see who is due to play these more often during the last six Gameweeks. The average games each team has against these opposition is 2.1. Again, just looking at those above the average we get the following teams:

Man City, Man Utd, Everton, West Ham, Watford and Brighton.

Attacking Stats

Now we need to focus on the best attacking players from these teams. In order to do that I again looked at the last six Gameweeks and also the whole season so far. The stats I looked at combining are:

  • Shots on Target
  • Shots in the Box
  • Big Chances
  • Goals
  • Big Chances Created
  • Assists

Over the last six Gameweeks the average score per game was 1.17 with 39 players above the average. Over the season the average score was 1.21 with 55 players above the average.

I then looked at who appeared on both of the lists and looked at which players were above the average score. This gave me the attacking players we are looking for (In order):

  • Calvert-Lewin
  • Aguero (injured since i wrote this)
  • Richarlison
  • Jesus
  • Antonio
  • Sterling
  • Martial
  • De Bruyne
  • Sarr
  • Maupay
  • Fernandes
  • Deeney
  • Haller

These FPL attackers could well prosper in the last six games of the season; they certainly have the fixtures and stats to point their way. Please note that some players could well be missing from this list that have been injured recently, i.e. Rashford. He would most certainly be on the list if he played recently so please bare this in mind.

It is also worth noting that Wolves are the only side that are not due to play any of the teams mentioned above in their last six games of the season.

Thanks for taking the time to read, I hope you enjoyed my first article and I look forward to writing you some more.

 

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