Welcome back to the brand new Fantasy Premier League Differentials series from @FPLTIPZ where he scours the FPL market for low-owned players with the potential to pick up big points to help shoot you up the rankings. Each week he will review last week’s choices and pick out five players for FPL Gameweek 35+ who are currently under 10% owned from a variety of price points and teams.
Gameweek 34+ Differentials Review
Dawson, £4.8m, 0.2% owned – 8 points – Dawson returned eight points due to a goal and two appearance points. Watford also only conceded once due to a great finish from Buendia.
Foden, £5.3m, 4.4% owned – 3 points – Foden returned three due to playing 60 minutes and getting a clean sheet point. Foden underperformed his statistics and missed a great chance and so was unlucky to only return the three points.
Mendy, £5.5m, 1.4% owned – 0 points – Mendy returned zero due to being rested by Guardiola in Gameweek 34+. However, Manchester City did keep a clean sheet and so was a strong pick if Mendy had started the match.
Shaw, £5.4m, 0.9% owned – 6 points – Shaw returned a clean sheet for managers with six points but did have an xA of 0.43 and created a big chance which Fernandes headed over from close range.
Rodriguez, £5.7m, 0.3% owned – 9 points – Rodriguez returned a goal and maximum bonus points for managers this week as Burnley beat West Ham 1-0 and Rodriguez continued his strong form in front of goal.
Overall – the average points returned last week were 5.2, but this would have increased up to 6.4 if Mendy had started the game for Manchester City.
Gameweek 35+ Differentials
Hause, £4.4m, 0.1% owned
Since the restart of the Premier League, Hause has scored 18 points from six starts and so averaged just three per match. However, Hause has an expected points of 37.8 which is more than double this. This is because the 4.4 defender has underperformed in both goals and assists against his expected stats. As well as this, Aston Villa has conceded nine goals despite having expected goals conceded of under seven and kept one clean sheet despite having an expected of over two. This shows overall that Hause and Aston Villa have been better defensively than the stats suggest so there is a possibility that this changes in the future.
In Gameweek 35+, Aston Villa host a Crystal Palace side who have been one of the weaker teams in front of goal this season. They have scored the just 30 goals this season which is the second-fewest only behind Norwich who are struggling at the bottom of the table. Aston Villa has had the second most headed attempts in the league this season and Crystal Palace have conceded the fifth most headed attempts. This means there could be chances for the 6 foot 3 defender Hause to get attacking returns as well as a clean sheet in Gameweek 35+.
Antonio, £6.9m, 1.4% owned
Since the return of the Premier League, West ham has looked better offensively and created two big chances per game on average up from 1.63 during the rest of the season. One of the reasons for this is the partnership being formed between Antonio and Bowen who have six-goal contributions combined since the restart. Both of these options are good picks, however, even though Antonio has only returned four points more than Bowen, his expected points are over 8 points higher meaning Antonio should have more potential to return more points for Fantasy Premier League managers.
In Gameweek 35+ West Ham faces a Norwich side who have been poor defensively since the restart and throughout the season. Norwich has conceded the second-most goals, kept the fewest clean sheets and conceded the most shots on target this season. This indicates that there could be an opportunity for Antonio to get attacking returns in this match as there should be opportunities. Antonio also has a 60% goal involvement since the return of the Premer League and so if West Ham do get chances Antonio is likely to be involved.
Almiron, £5.8m, 0.8% owned
Newcastle assets have been getting some attention since the Premer League returned as Newcastle had won two and drawn two before losing to Manchester City in Gameweek 34+ with a weaker lineup. Newcastle had scored 10 goals in those four games with Saint-Maximin having the most goal involvement with one goal and three assists. However, his teammate Almiron seems to be going under the radar with two goals and one assist. However, Saint-Maximin seems to be outperforming his stats with expected points scored of 5.21 per game started compared to the 7.25 that Saint-Maximin has got. This was aided by the defensive mistake that led to his goal against Sheffield United. On the other hand, Almiron has 5 points per game compared to his expected points of 5.86 which is higher than that of Saint-Maximin.
In Gameweek 35+, Newcastle faces a Watford side who have struggled this season and are in the middle of a relegation battle. Watford has conceded nine goals in these five matches since Gameweek 30+ and conceded 11 big chances. This indicates that there should be chances for Almiron against them in Gameweek 35+ as Watford will look may attack to try and pick up three points and so boost their survival hopes. Newcastle do still have to play Spurs and Brighton in the next two weeks so there is potential to keep Almiron as a differential over the next three Gameweeks.
Shaw, £5.4m, 0.9% owned
Since Gameweek 30+ Shaw has returned 19 points with three clean sheets in five matches. However, Shaw has been unlucky to not get any attacking returns in this time and has an expected goal of 1.23 and should have had an assist in Gameweek 34+ when Bruno Fernandes headed over from close range. Shaw also seems to be by far the first choice at left-back for Manchester United with Williams being used to rest both Shaw and Wan-Bissaka. Every game is a must-win for Manchester United in the race for a Champions League position, so it seems unlikely that Shaw will be rotated.
In Gameweek 35+ Manchester United host a Southampton team who look like they have nothing to play for and are stranded in mid-table. However, Danny Ings will still be chasing the golden boot having scored in Gameweek 34+. Manchester United go on to play Crystal Palace and West Ham who have scored 70 goals combined this season from 68 matches. This shows that not only could Shaw be a strong differential pick in Gameweek 35+ but managers could keep him until the end of the season.
Iheanacho, £5.7m, 0.6% owned
Iheanacho has been in and out of the Leicester lineup this season but has had a lot of impact when the 5.7 forward has come on. As a result, Iheanacho has the same expected goals as Vardy per 90 minutes during the season. When looking at the comparison between the two forwards since the resumption of the Premier League in Gameweek 30+, Iheanacho has a higher return of goals and expected goals per 90 minutes. Iheanacho also has the same expected goals per start since the Premier League restart and is owned by 0.6% of managers compared to 28.7% for Vardy. This means if Iheanacho starts for Leicester the Nigerian could be a strong differential as managers look at Vardy.
In Gameweek 35+ Leicester faces a Bournemouth side who are currently 18th in the Premier League and three points away from safety. Before Gameweek 34+ when Bournemouth drew 0-0 with Tottenham, Bournemouth had conceded 3 goals per game since Gameweek 30+. This shows there could be opportunities for Iheanacho and Leicester. Leicester then goes on to play Sheffield United in Gameweek 36+ who have the third-worst expected goals conceded since Gameweek 30+ only behind Bournemouth and Watford. This means Iheanacho could be a good differential for the next two weeks before potentially switching to a more highly owned asset such as Danny Ings after Southampton plays Manchester United.
Thank you for reading.
I hope this has been helpful and some of these players return some good points for you in Gameweek 35+ and beyond. This article will be back weekly to highlight a new set of differentials for you all to consider to help boost your rank as much as possible in the final Gameweeks of the season.
Thanks for reading – @FPLTIPZ
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