Welcome back to the Fantasy Premier League Differentials series from @FPLTIPZ where he scours the FPL market for low-owned players with the potential to pick up big points to help shoot you up the rankings. Each week he will review last week’s choices and pick out five players for the coming Gameweek who are currently under 10% owned from a variety of price points and teams.

Gameweek 36+ FPL Differentials Review

Foden, £5.5m, 6.4% owned – 2 points – Man City came up against a Bournemouth side who fought strongly to try and boost survival hopes. It was a lot harder for Manchester City to break them down as expected.

Giroud, £6.7m, 2.8% owned – 6 points – Giroud scored the only goal in the 1-0 win for Chelsea over Norwich, however, Giroud was unlucky not to return more and had expected points of 10.1.

Armstrong, £5.2m, 0.6% owned – points – 1 point – Armstrong did not start for Southampton in Gameweek 36+ and came on as a substitute for 12 minutes.

Son, £9.6m, 6.5% owned – 8 points – Son scored and returned one bonus point in Tottenham’s 3-1 win over Newcastle. Son looks to be on form going into the final few Gameweeks.

Cancelo, £5.1m, 0.8% owned – 1 point – Cancelo did not start for Manchester City and came on at half time.

Overall – The five differentials averaged 3.6 points each this week due to two of them only making substitute appearances.

Gameweek 37+ FPL Differentials

Tarkowski, £5.4m 6.2% owned

Norwich are the first team confirmed as relegated from the Premier League. This has come after poor form throughout the season and especially since the resumption of the Premier League. Having scored just two goals in 1,080 minutes of football and Burnley keeping 3 clean sheets in their last six and not conceded more than once in any of these, it seems a Burnley clean sheet is likely.

Because of this, the first Burnley differential chosen is Tarkowski who offers some of the highest attacking threat out of the defenders with five goal contributions this season. Since Gameweek 30+ Norwich have conceded more headed shots than any other team in the league with 23 indicating that there may be chances for Tarkowski and Burnley to score in this way in Gameweek 37+.

In the final Gameweek of the season, Burnley face Brighton who has scored just five goals in their seven matches since Gameweek 30+ and has conceded the third most shots from headers in that time as well. This again indicates that Tarkowski could be a good differential for the final two Gameweeks of the season.

FPL differentials

Burnley Defenders expected goals

Wood, £6.1m, 1.2% owned

The second Burnley player selected is Chris Wood at £6.1m. Wood has the highest points per start this season with 4.33 and is involved in 42% of Burnley’s goals when he is on the pitch. Wood is often seen as a streaky player, therefore, having scored a penalty in Gameweek 36+ to earn Burnley a last-minute draw against Wolves, the New Zealand forward may be high on confidence going into the match against bottom of the table Norwich. He has the second-highest expected goals in the league in Gameweek 36+, only behind Giroud who played Norwich, the team that Wood plays in Gameweek 37+.

In Gameweek 37+ Wood faces a Norwich who has conceded 16 goals in the seven matches, more than any team in the league. This is due to Norwich having faced the most shots on target out of any team and averaged 5.86 per game since the return of the Premier League. In Gameweek 38+, Burnley plays against Brighton who ranks worst for total shots conceded since Gameweek 30+ so Wood could be a good differential for both of the final two Gameweeks.

FPL differentials

Burnley Forwards – Points per Start

Josh King, £6.1m, 3.3% owned

Bournemouth will need to pick up as many points as possible in their final two games if they want to have any chance of staying in the Premier League. Josh King has spent some of the seasons out injured and so has only played 22 matches. However, when King has been fit the £6.1m forward has started with only two appearances off the bench. As a result, King has the highest points per start out of any of the Bournemouth attackers with 3.77. As well as this, King has the highest goal involvement out of any of the Bournemouth players with 39% and so, if Bournemouth are to score several goals in order to stay up, King may well be involved. He also comes in at £1.3m less than Callum Wilson with a higher goal involvement and higher points per start.

In Gameweek 37+, Bournemouth come up against Southampton who have kept just two clean sheets in seven matches, against Norwich and Manchester City, although Southampton were fortunate to keep a clean sheet against Manchester City who had an expected goals of 2.95. With this in mind, Bournemouth will be favoured to score and with King’s goal involvement he could well be involved. In Gameweek 38+, Bournemouth face Everton who seem to be lacking motivation at the end of the season and if Bournemouth have any chance to stay in the Premier League, they will throw everything they can at this game and so King could be a strong differential for the final two Gameweeks.

FPL differentials

Bournemouth Players – Goal Involvement per Start

 

Jota, £6.0m, 5.1% owned

There has been a lot of talk about Jimenez who has both rewarded and frustrated owners since the restart of the Premier League with four goals in seven matches but also blanks against Aston Villa, Arsenal and Sheffield United. His teammate Jota has also underperformed with 15 points compared to an expected points of 25.4 making Jota’s expected points per 90 minutes played higher than Jimenez over this period. Therefore, Jota could offer a strong differential if managers want to look elsewhere within the Wolves team.

In Gameweek 37+, Wolves host a Crystal Palace team who have conceded 13 goals in their last six Gameweeks which ranks second-worst in the league only behind Newcastle with 14. This means that there should be chances for Jota and Wolves in Gameweek 37+. Wolves cannot afford to drop more points in this game with others around them in the table performing well and they have to play Chelsea in Gameweek 38+. This is a very important fixture for Wolves and all their players will need to perform.

Jimenez vs Jota – Per 90 Minutes since Gameweek 30+

 

Trossard, £5.8m, 0.5% owned

Brighton’s form has been mixed since the return of the Premier League having picked up eight points from seven games including losses to Liverpool and Man City and wins over Arsenal and Norwich. However, Trossard has performed well averaging 4.8 points per start and underperforming by 0.6 points per start. This expected point rate of 5.4 ranks Trossard third amongst budget midfielders under £6.5m since Gameweek 30+ and goal involvement of 40%, the joint highest for Brighton over this period alongside Maupay.

In Gameweek 37+ Brighton and Trossard take on Newcastle who look to be on the beach having picked up just two points in the last six Gameweeks including losses to Watford and Bournemouth and draws to West Ham and Aston Villa. Newcastle have conceded the most goals over this six-game period with 14 averaging over two per game. As well as this, Newcastle are struggling with injuries including captain Lascelles signalling potential opportunity for Trossard and Brighton in Gameweek 37+.

Midfielders under 6.5 million – Expected Points per Start since Gameweek 30+

Thank you for reading.

I hope this has been helpful and some of these players return some good points for you in Gameweek 37+ and beyond. This article will be back weekly to highlight a new set of differentials for you all to consider to help boost your rank as much as possible in the final Gameweeks of the season.

Thanks for reading – Feel free to message me any questions – Twitter – @FPLTIPZ

 

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