Welcome back to the Fantasy Premier League Differentials series from @FPLTIPZ where he scours the FPL market for low-owned players with the potential to pick up big points to help shoot you up the rankings. Each week he will pick out three players for the coming five Gameweeks who are currently under 10% owned from a variety of price points and teams.
Gameweek 4 FPL Differentials
The Defender Differential – Ben Chilwell – £5.5m, 0.1% owned
Chelsea has not looked the strongest team in the league defensively both last season and at the start of this season. However, with the new-look defence with Mendy in goal, Thiago Silva in defence and now Chilwell at left-back, this could offer an opportunity for managers to find differentials in their defence. Last season Chilwell was the second-highest scoring defender under £5.6m per appearance only behind Wily Boly. This was due to his 0.22 goals or assists per game combined with Leicester’s defensive capabilities. Looking at how Chelsea left-backs have played in previous seasons, Chilwell will likely be given similar license to attack in his new team and so could reach similar numbers as he did last season whilst at the Foxes.
As well as this, Chelsea have strong fixtures over their next five that mean they rank fifth for the best defensive fixtures. These matches include home games against Crystal Palace, Southampton and Sheffield United with away matches against Manchester United and Burnley. This run of fixtures could offer a good base for Chilwell to start of his time in the Chelsea lineup from an attacking point of view, as well as offering Chelsea a chance to change their defensive form that has been seen for the past year.
The Midfielder Differential – Harvey Barnes – £7.0m, 5.7% owned
Barnes was a player that both rewarded and frustrated Fantasy Premier League managers last season as he fought for his place within the Leicester starting lineup. However, he has started all three matches so far this season which indicates the English winger could be more cemented in the lineup. Last season, when he did start, Barnes ranked third out of midfielders under £9.0m for points per game with 5.45. This is only third behind Mahrez (£8.4m) and Willian (£8.0m) who are priced at least £1.0m more than Barnes this season. So far this season he currently ranks first for Big Chances per start, first for expected goals per start and first for actual goals per start in that same price bracket. These underlying stats, whilst not really translating yet into FPL points, indicates Barnes is performing well and in line with what is expected and so can continue to produce strong returns for managers.
Leicester rank third-highest on the Fantasy Football Hub Fixture Ticker for attacking fixtures behind only Wolves and Southampton. Their fixtures over the next five include home matches against West Ham, Aston Villa and Wolves in addition to trips to Arsenal and Leeds. Having seemed to have secured the starting position in the Leicester side, these fixtures could help Barnes to continue on his form of an average of 6.0 points per Gameweek that he has scored so far this season.
The Forward Differential – Neal Maupay – £6.5m, 3.7% owned
Brighton have been one of the surprising teams this season as they have played with a more attacking style of play this season. This has seen players such as Trossard and Lamptey be talked about and purchased by many FPL managers. However, Maupay has not seen the same increase in ownership despite being the fourth-highest scoring player this season under £9.0m and being priced at a very reasonable £6.5m. One of the key talking points so far this season has been the increase in penalties and owning penalty takers; Maupay is one who has benefited from these in the opening Gameweeks of this season and will likely continue to take them for the Seagulls.
As well as strong statistics for Maupay and Brighton, they have strong fixtures in the upcoming Gameweeks. Ranking fourth on the Fixture Ticker for the next five Gameweeks, these fixtures included Crystal Palace, West Brom and Burnley who have all looked far from their best defensively. This could allow the Frenchman to continue on the strong form that he has shown at the start of the season with 26 points from the opening three Gameweeks and be a good affordable differential for the next five Gameweeks.
Thank you for reading.
I hope this has been helpful and some of these players return some good points for you over the next five Gameweeks and beyond. This article will be back weekly to highlight a new set of differentials for you all to consider and hopefully help boost your ranks.
Thanks for reading – Feel free to message me any questions – Twitter – @FPLTIPZ