Double Gameweek 19 Fantasy Premier League transfer trends and tips from Nima Kafai (overall rank 1,102 in the 19/20 season). Nima reviews the FPL transfer trends each Gameweek and uses the Hub’s OPTA, Prediction, Comparison and Fixture tools to help you identify the best FPL transfers and top tips for Double Gameweek 19.
With Blank Gameweek 18 out of the way we swiftly turn our focus onto Double Gameweek 19. But first, let’s take a moment’s silence for all of us who were left scarred by Sterling’s (£11.4m) last-minute penalty miss denying De Bruyne (£11.8m) his haul.
Fixture changes for Double Gameweek 19
The postponed Shrewsbury vs Southampton FA cup game is now being played during Gameweek 19 and so Leeds vs Southampton has been postponed to be played later in the season. This is painful for managers like me who used their first Wildcard in Gameweek 16 and brought in triple Leeds for their Gameweek 19 Bench Boost. Leeds now have only one match vs Brighton and Southampton have just the one match vs Leicester.
We have also had confirmation that the Aston Villa vs Everton game has been postponed, despite being pushed back from Saturday to Sunday. Luckily though their previously cancelled game vs Newcastle will now be the final fixture of Gameweek 19 so Aston Villa are still set to have Double Gameweek of Man City and Newcastle. Consequently, Newcastle now have a Double Gameweek vs Arsenal and Aston Villa.
Villa vs Everton is set to be postponed in GW19.
It's definitely still worth waiting until Saturday morning to make your transfers because AVL vs NEW or AVL vs TOT could be moved to FA Cup R4 weekend.https://t.co/UVZ2SdQScU
— Ben Crellin (@BenCrellin) January 13, 2021
Gameweek 19 Deadline – Saturday 16th January at 11:00 GMT
I highly recommend waiting till Saturday morning for your transfers, anything could happen between now and then. This Transfer Trends series focuses on rating a popular or interesting transfer combination within the top six most transferred IN and OUT players.
A popular midfielder transfer combo this week for many FPL managers is Son (£9.8m) for one of De Bryune (£11.8m) or Salah (£12.5m). A popular forward transfer combo is Calvert-Lewin (£7.7m) for one of Bamford (£6.6m) or Antonio (£6.2m).
The above players have had a lot of analysis in the past few weeks so this week’s article is going to look at budget midfielders. This week the topmost transferred in midfielder is Tomas Soucek (£5.3m) and he is replacing midfielders such as Wilfried Zaha (£7.4m) and Pedro Neto (£6m).
Without further ado, onto the Gameweek 19 transfers trends (Fixture Ticker for Gameweeks 19-24 is at the end to help navigate the medium-term when analysing popular transfer combinations):
Gameweek 19- Top transfers in
These are the six most transferred IN players in the lead up to Gameweek 19:
Tomas Soucek (£5.3m)- West Ham United
Fixtures: Burnley (H), West Bromich Albion (H), Crystal Palace (a) and Liverpool (H)
Soucek has quickly become a fan favourite at West Ham with his big personality and hard work ethic. He has played 90 minutes in all 17 of West Ham’s Premier League matches with no substitutions out.
What is most impressive about Soucek is that despite playing as a defensive midfielder, in the last 10 Gameweeks, only Fernandes (7) and Salah (6) have scored more goals than the Czech international (5).
He regularly finds himself in goalscoring positions and the majority of his shots are taken from inside the box (26/31 shots in the box).
Underlying stats this season:
- 1,530 mins (17 appearances/ 17 starts)
- 53 touches in the penalty box
- 31 shots (12 on target)
- 26 shots inside the box
- 7 big chances
- 6 chances created (0 big chances created)
- 5 goals (4.52 xG)
- 1 assist (1.29 xA)
Over the season, West Ham are 7th for Shots in the Box (143). As a whole, they’ve been up and down this season but are now sitting in 10th place in the Premier League table.
I would expect David Moyes to keep both matches in Gameweek 19 tight and Soucek is a great threat that is always pushing to get on the end of set-pieces or crosses.
This next tweet further opened my eyes to the fact that Soucek is not a traditional defensive midfielder and has a real eye for goal:
Since joining West Ham Tomas Soucek has as many PL goals as Kevin De Bruyne, Riyad Mahrez and Tammy Abraham. He has outscored the likes of Roberto Firmino, Mason Greenwood, Gabriel Jesus and Richarlison.
— James Benge (@jamesbenge) January 1, 2021
He has two home matches in Gameweek 19 against Burnley and West Brom. West Brom has conceded the most goals this season (39). Burnley is a lot higher at the back than West Brom (20 goals conceded).
Soucek has registered the most headed attempts (13) amongst midfielders this season and West Brom have conceded the second most headed attempts (44) this season👀#FPL #FPLCommunity pic.twitter.com/q03tYvRx6T
— ALLABOUTFPL (@allaboutfpl) January 14, 2021
It’s the fact that West Ham will have two home fixtures and Soucek’s price enables more premiums in the rest of our squad makes him a brilliant asset for this Double Gameweek.
Predicted Points and Opta Stats
The Predicted Points Tool is projecting 7.2 points for Soucek in Gameweek 19. Once the Double Gameweek is over he can still be rotated into your starting eleven or used as a first sub if you have seven stronger forwards to field that week.
Soucek is nailed on to start and play 90 minutes every match for West Ham. His friendly price-tag will be an enabler in the Double Gameweek to squeeze in the premiums who play twice. He can also act as the first sub beyond Double Gameweek 19 but many FPL managers will warn you of their benched Soucek points as he can return against any opponent.
Considering that many are bringing him in for Zaha, it is only fair that we move onto analysing Zaha both over the course of the season and also his more recent form too.
Gameweek 19 – Top transfers out
These are the six most transferred OUT players in the lead up to Gameweek 18:
Wilfried Zaha (£7.4m) – Crystal Palace
Fixtures: Arsenal (a), Manchester City (a), West Ham United (H) and Wolverhampton Wanderers (H)
Zaha has been in great form this season, having already scored more goals this season (8) than he did in the entire 38 matches last season (4)! However, Palace have been in terrible form lately only picking up five points from the last five matches. The Ivory Coast international only has one goal in his last six games.
Underlying stats this season:
- 1,341 mins (15 appearances / 15 starts)
- 94 touches in the penalty box
- 36 shots (13 on target)
- 32 shots inside the box
- 8 big chances
- 16 chances created (3 big chances created)
- 8 goals (5.76 xG)
- 3 assists (3.03 xA)
Zaha faces Manchester City away from home in Gameweek 19. This is the worst fixture possible for an out of form Palace side. In the last six Gameweeks, Palace is 19th for xG (5.67), joint-bottom for Big Chances (6) and 19th for Big Chances Created (3).
During that same spell their opponents Man City, have the lowest xGC in the Premier League (3.19) and have only conceded two goals in six matches (joint-best).
Comparison of Gameweeks 13-18
We can see both a comparison of his stats over the last six Gameweeks vs over the full season in the two Comparison Tool screenshots below.
The picture painted by the last six Gameweeks though shows that £5.3m Soucek from defensive midfield has better underlying attacking numbers than £7.4m Zaha who is playing as a winger/striker in matches.
Comparison of Gameweeks 1-18
It is immediately clear that Zaha and Palace’s form has dropped off considerably in the last five Gameweeks. You can see that his underlying attacking numbers are all better than Soucek over the full season.
Zaha is projected to net just 2.9 points on the Predicted Points tool in Gameweek 19. Whilst Soucek has two juicy home fixtures against Burnley and West Brom. Soucek’s projected to net 7.2 points in Gameweek 19 alone.
Over the longer term, once the Double Gameweek is out of the way, Zaha is predicted to get much closer to Soucek. Between Gameweeks 19 and 24, Zaha overtakes Soucek with a projection of 22.9 points vs 22 points.
With many FPL managers scrambling to set-up their teams with Double Gameweek options, it makes complete sense to be jumping off the out of form Crystal Palace train and sell Zaha in his toughest fixture of the season.
Soucek is a fantastic player with a real knack for taking shots that are of very high xG. Swapping his two home fixtures for Zaha’s one fixture and an extra £2.1m in the bank for another transfer feels like a strong move.
If you already own Soucek and are still keen on selling Zaha to chase upside elsewhere, then my favourite alternatives with Double Gameweek fixtures are Bowen (£6.4m), El Ghazi (£5.4m), Foden (£6.2m) or Mount (£6.8m).
If you can afford an upgrade then the likes of Rashford (£9.6m), De Bruyne (£11.8m), Salah (£12.5m) and Fernandes (£11.3m) are all brilliant options for the Double Gameweek fixtures.
Fixture Ticker schedule for best transfers in of attacking players
Here is a view of the upcoming six Gameweeks where teams are ordered based on the leakiness of the defences they face. You can access this on the Hub’s Fixture Ticker to play around and adjust filters if you want to get inspiration for which teams to be targeting in the medium term with your transfers.
*Please note the Double Gameweeks are messing with the sorting in ascending/descending order for the Ticker. The main thing to know is that High numbers are good for attack and bad for the defence in the next two photos.
Fixture Ticker schedule for best transfers in of defensive players
Here is a view of the upcoming six Gameweeks where teams are ordered based on the potency of the attacks they face.
l look forward to hearing your thoughts and discussing your transfers in the lead up to the Gameweek 19 deadline at 11:00 GMT on Saturday 16th January.
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Good luck with Gameweek 19!