This FPL Gameweek 13/14 strategy article reviews the FPL points as a metric team after Gameweek 12. We take a look at the data before moving on to the team for Gameweek 13/14.
If you’re interested in reading the article that explains this in detail, you can find out more in my introduction to using FPL points as a metric.
Gameweek 12 Review – FPL Strategy
A green arrow is always a good week in FPL! A score of 75 gave us a small green arrow from 25k to 23k!
The backline of Trent Alexander-Arnold (£7.8m), Joao Cancelo (£6.5m) and Ben Chilwell (£6m) combining for 36 points was a game changer.
Unfortunately, a potentially season-ending injury to Chilwell forces our hand a little in the transfer market this week.
The Data – FPL Gameweek 13/14 Strategy
As we can see, it is now Arsenal that have given up the most FPL Points to opposition Goalkeepers so far.
Wolves, Norwich, Watford and Spurs make up the remaining five.
Chelsea top the table for FPL Points scored at the Goalkeeper position so far. Man City and Liverpool are close behind.
Illan Meslier (£4.9m) hasn’t kept a clean sheet since we got him in.
Despite Leeds performing better in the underlying numbers for attempts conceded, Meslier could still be the subject of a transfer, albeit Chilwell is probably the priority this week.
David De Gea (£5m) could be an interesting option going forward, and I still hold an interest in Vicente Guaita (£4.6m) as well.
Nick Pope (£5.4m) has three decent fixtures in his next five according to the metric, but I think he’s a bit pricey considering Burnley’s form this season. They’ve kept one clean sheet in 12 games.
No surprises in the Points Scored table, with Chelsea now miles ahead after some monster performances from their defenders.
Reece James (£6.1m) and Ben Chilwell (£6m) have combined for 84 points in the last four Gameweeks.
James especially is massively over-performing when looking at the “expected FPL Points”. Yet owning one Chelsea fullback makes sense for now.
With Chilwell potentially being out long term, Marcos Alonso (£5.6m) could now be worth a punt.
Cesar Azpilicueta (£5.8m) has been a massive letdown since the Wildcard. Due to rotation and injury, he’s missed three of the four games since we’ve had him.
However, with the injury to Chilwell, is there a chance he gets more game time? Games will come thick and fast now, so maybe more rotation for James is in store.
Liverpool, Manchester City, Crystal Palace and Wolves make up the top five teams scoring the most FPL Points.
Norwich sit bottom of the table for points conceded by some distance as they continue to be the whipping boys of the division.
Watford, Spurs, Arsenal and Everton make up the teams conceding the most FPL Points to opposition defences.
Looking at the fixtures, I like the look of Spurs and Brentford’s five game runs. Sergio Reguilon (£5.1m) or Rico Henry (£4.5m) are the most appealing assets.
With Chilwell injured, a Chelsea defender will likely be on my shortlist to replace him.
The Midfield Table shows Liverpool are nearly 100 points clear at the top for most FPL Points scored. This is mainly due to Mohamed Salah’s (£13m) electric start.
He is averaging just over 10 points per game so far which would total around 380 points over the season!
It’s worth considering that his two next games are classed as red – playing teams conceding the least amount of FPL Points to opposition midfielders. Will Salah continue to buck the trends?
Man City, Man United, Chelsea and West Ham complete the top five in terms of Points Scored.
Norwich have conceded the most FPL Points to opposition Midfield units so far.
Burnley, Leeds, Newcastle and Watford make up the five teams worth targeting.
One player that has disappointed managers is Bryan Mbeumo (£5.6m) after blanking (and hitting the woodwork) again.
We mentioned Conor Gallagher (£5.8m) again last week and he delivered once more. Fixtures will gradually start getting a bit tougher, so he may be one for the bench soon.
Heung-Min Son (£10.3) now comes up against three of the five teams conceding the most FPL Points to midfielders.
Therefore, he could be primed for some big returns over the next few matches, despite blanks in his last five games.
Newcastle have a decent five game run. Eddie Howe discussed setting the team up around Jonjo Shelvey (£5.3m), but he isn’t putting up any kind of encouraging numbers at the moment, so we won’t be going there anytime soon.
Maybe Miguel Almiron (£5.2m) could provide us with something from that midfield, but it depends on how he is used by Howe.
Watford, Leicester, Newcastle, Wolves and Southampton make up the top five teams with Forwards scoring the most FPL Points so far.
A lot of these teams play two up top each week, which can sway the numbers to a certain extent.
Looking at individuals, Jamie Vardy (£10.6m) and Michail Antonio (£8.2m) have disappointed in recent weeks, but Vardy now comes up against Watford.
The 34-year-old also has a run of five games where he is playing three of the teams giving up the most FPL Points to opposition Forwards. These are the kind of fixtures where he needs to turn his form around.
Antonio has a tricky run until Gameweek 18, and he then doesn’t come up against a “Red” team until Gameweek 27! As a result, it might be worth holding onto him.
If you are selling the Jamaican, a move to Vardy, or maybe Christian Benteke (£6.4m) could be a nice differential shout.
The Belgian has amassed seven big chances in the last four weeks. A caveat is that five of them were in one game, but he is still joint top for shots on target (four) in the last three weeks.
He has reasonable fixtures too, so could be worth a punt.
Home and Away Points Scored and Conceded Tables
As evidenced above, the teams scoring the most FPL Points are also conceding the least! This gives us an idea of the best performing clubs doing well and those worth targeting.
I’ve also done this using Points Difference like Goal Difference:
Home and Away Data – Points Per Game Basis
The teams performing badly at home according to FPL Points Conceded per game are Watford, Norwich, Leicester, Man United and Newcastle.
On the other hand, Norwich, Arsenal, Crystal Palace, Watford, and Burnley are performing poorly away from home.
The teams performing well at home according to FPL Points Scored in respect of Points Per Game are Man City, Chelsea, Liverpool, Aston Villa and Crystal Palace.
City and Chelsea are absolutely dominating in their home fixtures, and this indicates how much better Palace are at home, as they are scoring in the top five teams at home, and in the top five teams away for points conceded.
Similarly, the teams performing well away from home according to total FPL Points Scored Per Game are Liverpool, Chelsea, West Ham, Man City and Man United/Brighton on 45 Points Per Game.
FPL Gameweek 13 Team
So after that deep dive into the data, here is the current lineup for Gameweek 13:
With the Gameweeks becoming bunched together, this article will cover my plans for Gameweek 14 too.
I think we will need to sell Chilwell, potentially for Reece James (£6.1m). He’s been in sensational form and has a stellar match up this week.
Man United concede most of their chances down that flank, and we know how dominant James has been. This is illustrated further below:
I may now look to hold Cesar Azpilicueta (£5.8m) with the idea that he may get a bit more game time over the Festive Period.
However, I haven’t ruled out moving him to Alonso as mentioned above. Reguilon or Henry could also come in to save a bit of cash, but with £3.1m in the bank, this isn’t essential.
Southampton now have poor fixtures and so we could see the end of the Adam Armstrong’s (£6m) run in our team.
Looking at the fixtures, Chris Wood (£6.7m) could be an option in addition to Benteke.
Teemu Pukki (£5.8m) also offers good value, and Joshua King (£5.6m) has excellent underlying numbers. His fixtures do put me off a little, however.
I could also upgrade Douglas Luiz (£4.5m) to strengthen my bench, but this doesn’t feel like an urgent move.
Transfers – FPL Gameweek 13/14 Strategy
These are not set in stone, but are moves I’ll likely make:
Gameweek 13: Chilwell to James, Armstrong to Wood/Benteke.
Gamewek 14: Roll the transfer.
I may move Azpilicueta to Alonso as well, but I’m less sure of this move.
Captaincy – FPL Gameweek 13/14 Strategy
Not overthinking this one. Salah will be our captain vs Southampton. Son is a strong consideration for the captaincy in Gameweek 14 at home to Brentford, while Salah is away at Everton.
Conclusion – FPL Gameweek 13/14 Strategy
Well there we have it. As always, there is a lot to think about ahead of the weekend. I hope you’ve found this interesting and it would be great to hear your thoughts on it!
I would also love it if you’d drop me a follow on Twitter @RichP_FPL. Cheers!
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