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            <p><strong>FPL Gameweek 18 preview </strong>from veteran <strong>Fantasy Premier League manager</strong> <a href="https://twitter.com/BigManBakar">BigManBakar</a>.</p>
<p>He shares his data-driven observations to help us make effective decisions for <strong>Gameweek 18</strong>.</p>
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<h2><strong>Gameweek 18 FPL Preview | COVID Postponements</strong></h2>
<p>It’s stating the obvious but I would firstly <strong>leave it as late on Saturday as you can</strong> before making the transfers.</p>
<p>With all the randomness in play, I would lean more towards bringing in players who are playing on Saturday rather than Sunday. I would also be reluctant to take point hits to buy players who are playing on Sunday – <strong>Phil Foden and Diogo Jota</strong> due to their ceilings being the only exceptions (I’m assuming most of us own <strong>Salah, Alexander-Arnold and Cancelo</strong> anyway!).</p>
<p>I would keep the players I want long term in my squad rather than selling them if they are blanking this week.</p>
<p>An example of this is <strong>Joshua King (£5.8m) and Emmanuel Dennis (£6.0m)</strong> who might have a <a href="https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/fpl-blank-double-gameweek-guide-2021-22/"><strong>double or even a triple gameweek</strong></a> in Gameweek 21, according to <a href="http://twitter.com/bencrellin"><strong>Ben Crellin</strong></a>.</p>
<p>Similarly, there’s <strong>Conor Gallagher (£6.2m)</strong> who might have a Double Gameweek in Gameweek 21, so I would be reluctant to sell him too. Man United may also have a Double Gameweek in 21 but I find it hard to justify holding onto <strong>Cristiano Ronaldo (£12.5m)</strong> – particularly at a time when <strong>squad depth is critical</strong>. It’s important to have an easy route back to him though in case Man United do have a double in Gameweek 21.</p>
<p><strong>I would be more open to selling the West Ham assets</strong> as they are unlikely to have a Double Gameweek anytime soon due to their <strong>Europa League commitments</strong>. <strong>Michail Antonio (£7.9m)</strong>, in particular, has been very disappointing since his last league goal in Gameweek 9:</p>
<p><strong>Antonio from Gameweek 10 onwards (per 90, amongst forwards):</strong></p>
<p>Shots in the box: 0.75 (23rd)</p>
<p>Big chances: 0.00 (Last)</p>
<p>xG: 0.05 (25th)</p>
<p>Key passes: 1.25 (8th)</p>
<p>xGi: 0.2 (25th)</p>
<p>West Ham xG: 1.2 (13th)</p>
<p>Those numbers make for grim reading. <a href="https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/fixture-ticker/"><strong>West Ham have a great run of fixtures</strong></a> coming up, but with such an astronomical drop in numbers, it’s hard to justify holding onto an asset with a blank fixture and with no immediate Double Gameweek to come.</p>
<div id="attachment_41736" style="width: 1598px" class="wp-caption alignnone"><img aria-describedby="caption-attachment-41736" class="wp-image-41736 size-full" src="https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Screenshot-2021-12-17-at-16.07.36.jpg" alt="fpl gameweek 18 preview" width="1588" height="1290" /></p>
<p id="caption-attachment-41736" class="wp-caption-text">Antonio stats since Gameweek 10</p>
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<h2><strong>Gameweek 18 FPL Preview | Phil Foden</strong></h2>
<p><strong>Phil Foden (£8.0m)</strong> is my pick of the Man City midfielders to own at the moment.</p>
<p>He comes at a very affordable price and the ceiling that he possesses in that Man City team is second to none.</p>
<p><strong>I much prefer him to the likes of Kevin De Bruyne and Raheem Sterling</strong> because of his price – there’s so much you can do with the additional funds.</p>
<p>Foden has been in superb form this season and what strikes me is the fact it is apparent that <strong>he has established himself in Pep Guardiola’s first 11</strong>. He will be rotated at times but his explosive potential is such that he can make up for the random benchings with his hauls when he plays – as was the case against Leeds.</p>
<p>It was also interesting to see him <strong>take corners</strong> despite the presence of De Bruyne. Man City are given a <strong>54% chance by the bookmakers to score 2.5+ goals against Newcastle</strong>, and I fully expect Foden to be in the points again.</p>
<div id="attachment_41671" style="width: 824px" class="wp-caption alignnone"><img aria-describedby="caption-attachment-41671" class="wp-image-41671 size-full" src="https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Phil-Foden-Stats-2.jpg" alt="fpl gameweek 18 preview foden" width="814" height="651" /></p>
<p id="caption-attachment-41671" class="wp-caption-text">Phil Foden Stats</p>
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<h2><strong>Gameweek 18 FPL Preview | Ollie Watkins</strong></h2>
<p><strong>Ollie Watkins (£7.7m)</strong> would be my <strong>number one forward to own in Gameweek 18</strong>. He has shown signs of resurgence under Steven Gerrard having already scored thrice in six games. With <strong>Danny Ings’ minutes being managed</strong>, he is the focal point of Villa’s attack and is likely to be on penalties in his absence.</p>
<p><strong>His numbers against Norwich were encouraging</strong> - he recorded six shots in the box and had a healthy xG. What I like about Watkins is that he is <strong>nailed for 90 minutes</strong> which is a very rare trait to have for the forwards in play at the moment.</p>
<p>Watkins has a very high <strong>44% goal involvement since Gerrard took over</strong> so, at the moment, he is Villa’s talisman. I would vice-captain him this week – Villa are the first team to play after the deadline so it is safe to bring in/be dependent on Villa’s players should there be any fixture postponements on the games to be played on Sunday.</p>
<div id="attachment_41668" style="width: 815px" class="wp-caption alignnone"><img aria-describedby="caption-attachment-41668" class="wp-image-41668 size-full" src="https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Ollie-Watkins-Stats-2.jpg" alt="gameweek 18 preview fpl" width="805" height="654" /></p>
<p id="caption-attachment-41668" class="wp-caption-text">Ollie Watkins Stats</p>
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<h2><strong>Gameweek 18 FPL Preview | Arsenal Attack</strong></h2>
<p>What strikes me about Leeds United is the number of chances they concede centrally – <strong>47% of their chances conceded are from the centre</strong>, as opposed to 25% on the left and 28% on the right flank. This weakness was woefully exploited by De Bruyne and Foden against City, which leads me to believe that <strong>Alexandre Lacazette (£8.3m)</strong> <strong>could have a good time playing against the Leeds defence</strong> as well.</p>
<p>“He’s taken the captaincy the way everybody saw today with such pride and commitment. I’m really happy again with the way he played.”</p>
<p>These comments from Arteta and the fact that he said that the <strong>Aubameyang situation “will take time to heal”</strong> makes me think that Lacazette could be a good short-term option, particularly before two games against Leeds and Norwich.</p>
<p>Leeds, in particular, are rocked by injuries – and only have 10 senior players available tomorrow. Further, Arsenal are playing tomorrow which makes their assets relatively low risk.</p>
<p>I now compare their midfielders:</p>
<p><strong>Saka v Smith Rowe v Martinelli v Odegaard</strong></p>
<p>21/22</p>
<p>Stats per 90</p>
<p>Shots in the box: 1.9 v 1.2 v 2.3 v 0.6<br />
Key passes: 2.1 v 1.5 v 1.9 v 2.1<br />
xG: 0.25 v 0.22 v 0.32 v 0.12<br />
Expected goal involvement (xGi): 0.5 v 0.4 v 0.6 v 0.3</p>
<p><strong>Gabriel Martinelli (£5.2m) and Bukayo Saka (£6.2m)</strong> are the ones who stand out. Martinelli is more of a risk due to his minutes so <strong>Saka would be my pick here</strong> if picking one.</p>
<p>However, one caveat to mention here is that despite all my enthusiasm about Arsenal’s assets, <strong>they are ranked 17<sup>th</sup> for xG away from home this season</strong>. However, they have had a very tough fixture schedule away from home so maybe this is down to that.</p>
<div id="attachment_41667" style="width: 817px" class="wp-caption alignnone"><img aria-describedby="caption-attachment-41667" class="wp-image-41667 size-full" src="https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2021/12/Alexandre-Lacazette-Stats.jpg" alt="gameweek 18 preview fpl" width="807" height="654" /></p>
<p id="caption-attachment-41667" class="wp-caption-text">Alexandre Lacazette Stats</p>
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<h2><strong>Gameweek 18 FPL Preview | Free Hit This Week?</strong></h2>
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<p>I don’t think <strong>Free Hitting</strong> is a viable solution even if your team is a shambles this week.</p>
<p>I say that because most of the fantasy managers at this point in time own the main assets from <strong>Chelsea, Liverpool and Man City</strong> while the rest of the player pool to pick from remains limited.</p>
<p>The likes of James, Alexander-Arnold, Jota, Salah and Cancelo are so highly owned and that’s a good enough core to have.</p>
<p>The additional benefit you might derive from a Free Hit seems low given that most fantasy managers have the best players in this gameweek already. Further, with precedents set for <strong>late fixture cancellations</strong>, the last thing you need is to load up on a team on a Free Hit only to find its fixture being canceled.</p>
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<h2><strong>Gameweek 18 FPL Preview | Matty Cash (£5.0m)</strong></h2>
<p>Villa have impressed me under their Steven Gerrard.</p>
<p>Defensively, they are posting <a href="https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/opta/"><strong>much better underlying numbers</strong></a> than they were under Dean Smith. Very recently, they restricted Man City to just the single big chance and despite having played the likes of Liverpool and Man City in their previous six games, they have an <strong>average xG conceded per game of around 1.3.</strong> That's extremely respectable.</p>
<p>It’s worth noting that since Gerrard has taken over, <strong>Matty Cash (£5.0m) is ranked second among defenders for penalty area touches and shots in the box</strong>.</p>
<p>He recorded six penalty area touches in the Norwich game and now faces a Burnley side who are bottom for xG this season, so his chances of a clean sheet look bright.</p>
<p>The bookmakers have ranked Villa as the most probable team to keep a clean sheet in Gameweek 18 after Man City and Chelsea too. The one caveat to mention here though is that <strong>he's on four yellows</strong> and is one booking away from a suspension in case he gets a yellow card before Gameweek 20.</p>
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