Holly Shand is a regular Hub contributor on all things FPL and Footstock. She's been playing Fantasy Premier League for six seasons now, with two top 10k finishes and a further two top 100k finishes. 

While fantasy algorithms are now a very valuable tool, the bookies have been predicting match outcomes with relative success for years.

Delving into the bookies odds, particularly when it comes to things like clean sheet odds, to score 3+ goals and anytime goalscorer odds, can be particularly useful for our FPL decisions.

Ahead of Gameweek 2, we are going in-depth on those bookies odds mentioned above. How can these statistics influence our fantasy thinking and what would the bookies optimal team be for Gameweek 2? All odds are taken from Oddschecker.

Gameweek 2 Clean Sheet Odds

Here's the implied probability of sides to keep a clean sheet in Gameweek 2, taken from the latest Oddschecker best odds.

Man Utd 52%
Leicester 45%
Leeds 44%
Arsenal 42%
Everton 42%
Man City 42%
Newcastle 36%
Brighton 33%
Villa 32%
Spurs 32%
Sheffield 31%
Liverpool 27%
Southampton 27%
Chelsea 20%
Burnley 18%
Fulham 18%
West Brom 15%
West Ham 13%
Wolves 13%
Palace 10%

The picture for Gameweek 2 gives one clear favourite, Manchester United. Harry Maguire (£5.5m) leads the pack after an eventful off-season, with an equally promising upside for Aaron Wan-Bissaka (£5.5m). The rest of the Manchester United defence lineup is difficult to predict.

Anyone who invested in the Leicester City for Gameweek 1 were rewarded, and there's high hopes for another clean sheet this weekend. James Justin (£4.5m) is the cheapest route in to that defence for now, and worth the risk for at least the next couple of weeks leading up to the International Break. He won the second penalty.

Plenty of budget options also reside in the Leeds United defence, but we will need a much-improved performance than the side that conceded four goals to Liverpool last weekend, including two penalties. Captain Liam Cooper (£4.5m) could return to the side whilst Stuart Dallas (£4.5m) provided an assist last time around and Illan Meslier (£4.5m) is an intriguing cheap goalkeeping option.

Gameweek 2 To Score 3+ Goals Odds

Here's the implied probability of sides to score 3+ goals in Gameweek 2, taken from the latest Oddschecker best odds.

Man Utd 45%
Arsenal 38%
Man City 38%
Everton 33%
Leeds 29%
Leicester 29%
Liverpool 25%
Chelsea 18%
Spurs 18%
Villa 14%
Newcastle 14%
Southampton 14%
Sheffield 13%
Brighton 11%
Burnley 8%
Fulham 8%
West Brom 8%
West Ham 8%
Wolves 8%
Palace 5%

Clearly Manchester United are top favourites to produce an emphatic defeat of Crystal Palace; for anyone unsure on whether to bring in one of their assets this week taking note of this! Bruno Fernandes (£10.5m) tops the shopping list, with the influence of penalties this season on clear display for opening weekend.

Arsenal aren't far behind though ahead of their clash with West Ham, with Pierre Emerick-Aubameyang (£12.0m) the early favourite for captaincy once again. Willian (£8.1m) was among the first price rises this season and that comes as no surprise following his three assists in Gameweek 1; can he keep those levels of creativity going?

It's going to be a tough ask for fantasy managers to bring on board Manchester City and Manchester United assets, with the blue side of Manchester expected to score heavily away to Wolves. Kevin De Bruyne (£11.5m) is one of the most transferred in players this week, but don't overlook Raheem Sterling (£11.5m) either.

Everton were one of the surprise packages of the opening weekend and look to be a formidable force with the key acquisitions they've made in midfield. James Rodriguez (£7.5m) created five chances and showed that he's still a world-class player, despite having limited game-time over the last few seasons.

FPL Gameweek 2 Anytime Goalscorer Odds by Position

Here's the implied probability of players by position to score anytime in Gameweek 2, taken from the latest Oddschecker best odds.

Forwards Midfielders Defenders
Aguero 51% Aubameyang 60% Alioski 13%
Vardy 50% Fernandes 43% Maguire 12%
Lacazette 44% Rashford 43% Van Dijk 11%
Jesus 44% Salah 43% Alonso 11%
Richarlison 43% Sterling 43% Mina 11%
Calvert-Lewin 43% Greenwood 38% Doherty 11%
Martial 43% Van De Beek 38% Schar 10%
Ings 41% Mane 35% Koch 9%
Kane 40% Mahrez 33% Otamendi 9%
Kean 40% De Bruyne 30% Alexander-Arnold 9%
Ighalo 40% Willian 30% Digne 8%
Nketiah 40% Pepe 29% Dalot 8%
Bamford 38% Rodriguez 29% Willians 8%
Werner 38% Hernandez 29% Bellerin 8%
Abraham 36% Son 29% Dunk 8%

Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (£12.0m) leads the pack by some margin, which could be a crucial nod when it comes to captaincy. He leaves premium assets from other clubs trailing in his wake. Most premium midfielders dominate this list, including Mohamed Salah (£12.0m) against his old club.

When it comes to forwards, it's Sergio Aguero (£10.5m) and Jamie Vardy (£10.0m) at the top of the list. Aguero has a good chance of starting the game against Wolves following a lengthy injury lay-off, and if he does, he's the likeliest source of goals on this Manchester City side.

Jamie Vardy has penalties to aid his points total once more: he came away with two goals last weekend despite failing to have a single shot beyond the two spot-kicks. There's little to split Richarlison (£8.0m) and Dominic Calvert-Lewin (£7.0m) despite a contrast in their fantasy prices right now.

Central defenders have the edge this week, with Harry Maguire (£5.5m) most likely to achieve the fantasy holy grail of a goal, clean sheet and bonus points. Yerry Mina (£5.5m) also carries a similar threat, with Everton facing a particularly goal shy West Brom side, who managed just one shot on target last weekend.

Bookies Dream Team

Taking all of the above into account, here is the Bookies Dream Team for FPL Gameweek 2:

Meslier; Maguire, Justin, Dallas, Holding; Aubameyang (C), Rashford, Fernandes; Aguero, Vardy, Calvert-Lewin.

 

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