This FPL Gameweek 22 strategy article reviews the FPL points as a metric team after Gameweeks 19-21. We take a look at the data before moving on to the team for Gameweek 22.
If you’re interested in reading the article that explains this in detail, you can find out more in my introduction to using FPL points as a metric.
Gameweek 19-21 Review – FPL Strategy
Hello again! In my last article before that rush of gameweeks, we were sat at 94k after Covid-19 played havoc causing some bad luck and red arrows. However, the festive period has been kind to us and we now sit at 39k after Gameweek 21!
Jarrod Bowen (£6.7m) the hero with a 42-point captain return in 21, so we enter Gameweek 22 at 39k and wondering whether or not we should Free Hit!
FPL Gameweek 22 Bus Team
Here is the current lineup for Gameweek 22:
Since Chris Wood (£6.7m) has now moved to Newcastle, and Heung-Min Son (£10.7m) is now injured, we are down two Double Gameweek players and a captain, with Son likely being our captain prior to his injury.
Today’s article is going to be slightly different, as we are going to pick specific match data from all of the Double Gameweek Teams to see whether or not we are missing out on some huge opportunities. If we are, we may well play the Free Hit. We have a lot of good single gameweek options, but the upside could potentially be worth the risk.
Specific Match Data – FPL Gameweek 22 Strategy
First up is Brentford – who play Liverpool and Man United in a tricky double. Both fixtures look very difficult, with both opponents in the bottom five for FPL Points conceded at most positions.
However, it is worth noting that United concede the most FPL Points to opposition Forwards when they play away (on a Points Per Game Basis), conceding an average of 8.7 PPG. Brentford, or Ivan Toney (£6.6m) in particular don’t fair too well, as they are ranked 18th for FPL Points scored by their Forwards at home, only averaging 3.1 PPG.
If we are to Free Hit, I probably wouldn’t get any Brentford players.
We can see here that Brighton are pretty middle of the road at home in terms of FPL Points Scored on a PPG basis, performing better at Goalkeeper (ranked 6th) and Defence (ranked 9th). They’re also just outside the top 10 for most FPL Points conceded at home as well.
It’s clear that the Chelsea fixture will be very difficult, as they rank inside the bottom five for most FPL Points conceded at each position when they play away. The Crystal Palace fixture is interesting though, as Palace are in the top five teams for conceding FPL Points to opposition Goalkeepers, Defensive and Midfield units on a PPG basis when they are on the road.
I wouldn’t rule out defensive players from Brighton on a Free Hit, based on the above. I think they could do well against Crystal Palace, and we could treat the Chelsea game as a bonus 1/2 pointer.
Prior to his move to Newcastle, Chris Wood (£6.7m) had a pretty good double gameweek on paper. Whilst the data shows Watford aren’t as bad on the road as they are at home, they still concede plenty of goals. Leicester are fifth for most FPL Points conceded to opposition Forwards on their travels, conceding an average of 7.1 PPG. With Wood out of the picture, I can’t see me going for any Burnley assets on a Free Hit, unless I go for a budget assets for the bench.
Again, we’d be treating the Man City game as a 1/2 point bonus here, given how strong they are. Obviously Chelsea are strong too, but have had some squad issues and have lost Edouard Mendy (£6.2m) to AFCON.
Chelsea score pretty highly on the road, so perhaps targeting a defender on the Free Hit on the assumption the should keep a clean sheet at Brighton. Perhaps even a midfielder, given the lack of options at that position at the moment. Brighton are just outside the top five for FPL Points conceded to opposition Midfielders at home, so we may well get a return or two.
So Leicester have two fixtures where their opponent is in the top five teams conceding the most FPL Points to opposition Goalkeepers. Kasper Schmeichel (£4.8m) could be an interesting Free Hit option on that data alone. The trouble is that most of Leicester’s key defenders are injured, and also that their game against Everton was postponed because they couldn’t get a squad together. They’ve been leaky all season and with this in mind, this would be a risky pick.
If we were to pick any Leicester attackers, it would be the likes of Harvey Barnes (£6.5m) or James Maddison (£6.9m) on the assumption they’ll be operating fairly advanced and should have opportunities against Burnley especially. Burnley are conceding the most shots per game and fourth most shots on target per game in the last four gameweeks (using “per game” due to postponements), so once more, we’d be treating the Spurs game as a bonus appearance with the odd chance of a return.
Man United still haven’t really got going since Ralf Rangnick took over. They’ve struggled to play well and haven’t looked very good on the whole. However you have to consider their assets when they have a Double Gameweek!
David De Gea (£5.2m) could be a good option; not necessarily for clean sheets but for the amount of saves he can make. Only Fraser Forster at Southampton has made more saves than De Gea since Gameweek 18, so there is potential for some massive hauls from him. The downside of the Aston Villa game especially, is that Villa are conceding the least FPL Points to opposition Goalkeepers at home, in the whole league! They concede an average of 1.8 PPG, with Liverpool next on 2 PPG. I still think he’s a good bet.
With the games being Saturday and then Wednesday, I’d imagine Cristiano Ronaldo (£12.5m) plays both games. Whilst United haven’t been setting the world alight, he’s ticking along reasonably well, with four goals and an assist in his last six games. I think he could be heavily captained this week.
Spurs are in the top five teams both home and away for FPL Points scored by their Goalkeeper/Defenders. Both Leicester and Arsenal are middle of the road in terms of points conceded to these positions, but I think on a Free Hit, you’d maybe want one of these as a bit of cover. Sergio Reguilon and Hugo Lloris (both £5.4m) are in our team already, so in that respect, we’re pretty well covered.
Spurs are also fourth at home for FPL Points scored by their midfielders, and with Arsenal conceding the sixth most, Heung-Min Son (£10.7m) had great potential as a Captaincy option this week. Could we maybe move straight to Lucas Moura (£6.5m) and hope that he can cover Son? Harry Kane (£12.2m) in a double gameweek is always worth considering, but does the loss of Son affect him negatively? I’m inclined to think so, but he will always have penalties in his locker and is a top class player.
Watford play both of their games in this gameweek away from home, and they’re not as bad on the road. However of their assets, I’d only really be considering Josh King (£5.8m) and Emmanuel Dennis (£6.1m). Dennis didn’t go to AFCON in the end and has started to play more centrally in recent weeks. However, King is on penalties and generally has better underlying, more sustainable statistics. A very tricky decision, unless you go for both!
Both Newcastle and Burnley are in or around the top five teams conceding the most FPL Points to opposition Forwards, so this is a decent double for Watford Forwards. It will be interesting to see which of them does well.
Ben Foster (£4.1m) could also be worth a punt if he returns from injury in time.
Best of the Rest
We also need to consider the teams with excellent single fixtures as well. In our team for example, we have a triple up on West Ham at home to Leeds. Leeds are in the top five teams conceding the most FPL Points to opposition Goalkeepers, Defenders and Midfielders when they play away from home. Should we sell the likes of Craig Dawson (£4.9m), Jarrod Bowen (£6.7m) and Michail Antonio (£7.9m) ahead of that game?
Dominic Calvert-Lewin (£7.9m) is away to Norwich, who are conceding an average of 9.6 FPL PPG to opposition Forwards at home. This is the highest in the league. It could be a huge risk to remove him ahead of that game.
Trent Alexander-Arnold (£8.4m) and Diogo Jota (£8.3m) are at home to Brentford, who are conceding the fifth most FPL Points to opposition Defensive Units and fourth most FPL Points to opposition Forwards when they play away. Transferring either of them out on a Free Hit doesn’t seem like a great idea.
So it doesn’t seem as easy as just Free Hitting to take advantage of extra fixtures – we could easily be undone by players with great single games that are highly owned.
Transfers – FPL Gameweek 22 Strategy
Looking at our squad, I think we can either make a couple of transfers for -4 to add a couple of Double Gameweek Players, or we can go all in on a Free Hit. We also need to consider how we plan to get back to Mohamed Salah (£12.8m) when he returns from International Duty. I haven’t decided either way yet, but the transfers could be:
Son out for Maddison/Mount/Moura
Antonio for Ronaldo/Kane/Dennis.
I have mocked up a Free Hit draft as well:
This gives us a bit of a benching headache, but lots of Double Gameweek Cover and keeping some of the players with really good individual fixtures.
Captaincy – FPL Gameweek 22 Strategy
Very tricky this week. I’d be tempted by Kane/Ronaldo/King with this Free Hit draft, or whoever of those I bring in if we take the -4. I’m not ruling out Jota or Trent based on the strength of their single fixture either.
Conclusion – FPL Gameweek 22 Strategy
Well there we have it. As always, there is a lot to think about ahead of the weekend. I hope you’ve found this interesting and it would be great to hear your thoughts on it!
If you’re on Twitter and you’d want to drop me a follow, I’m @RichP_FPL. Cheers!
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