Gameweek 28 Fantasy Premier League transfer tips and differentials series from @FPLTIPZ where he scours the FPL market for low-owned players with the potential to pick up big points to help shoot you up the rankings. Each week he uses our OPTA stats tool to pick out three players for the coming five Gameweeks for consideration for your FPL transfer who are currently under 10% owned from a variety of price points and teams. Written before the conclusion of Gameweek 27.
Gameweek 28 FPL Differentials
The Defender Differential – Joel Veltman – £4.3m, 1.1% owned
Using the Hub’s OPTA stats tool, we can see that Brighton had one of the worst defences in the league at the start of the season conceding 1.45 goals per game across the first 20 Gameweeks, ranking sixth-worst in the league. However, since Gameweek 20, Brighton now has the sixth-best defensive record conceding only 0.86 goals per game indicating that now could be a good time to invest in the Brighton defenders especially given the affordable prices of many of the defenders.
Out of the Brighton defenders, Veltman has the most attacking threat to the clean sheet potential. Veltman has 1.6 expected attacking return points per game since Gameweek 20 giving the Dutch defender expected points per match of 6.3, 0.7 higher than teammate Lewis Dunk despite being priced at £4.9m, £0.6m more than Veltman. Veltman combines both goal threat with 1.14 shots inside the box per game and 0.29 big chances per game with the assist potential created by playing right wing-back with 1.29 key passes made per game since Gameweek 20. With Brighton lacking a goal threat with the second-lowest goals scored per game with just 0.62 goals scored per match, it means that Veltman has the potential to add bonus points on top of the attacking returns and clean sheet potential as he has already done with 0.71 bonus points per game since Gameweek 20, more than all the other Brighton defenders combined. With the injury to Tariq Lamptey being more serious than first feared, it is likely that Veltman continues in the starting lineup for the foreseeable future and at just £4.3m Veltman could offer a great differential.
Brighton also have some favourable fixtures in the upcoming five Gameweeks that could help maximise the differential possibility of Veltman. These fixtures include more difficult matches away to Manchester United and Chelsea with more favourable fixtures against Southampton, Newcastle and Everton. All of these last three teams in Southampton, Newcastle and Everton have all averaged less than a goal per game in the last five Gameweeks indicating there is strong clean sheet potential for Brighton and Veltman given the poor attacking threat of the opponents and defensive form Brighton have shown. It is also worth remembering that Brighton have a favourable away fixture against Newcastle in Blank Gameweek 29, increasing his appeal further.
The Midfielder Differential – James Ward-Prowse – £5.9m, 9.6% owned
The Midfield differential is James Ward-Prowse of Southampton owned by 9.6% of FPL managers. Southampton showed a strong start to the season, however, in recent Gameweeks, the form shown has dropped picking up just four points from the last five Gameweeks. However, there will likely be a change in the form at some point if Southampton do not want to be drawn into a relegation battle as they sit just six points above safety. The Hub’s Fixture Ticker ranks Southampton second for the best-attacking fixtures over the next five Gameweeks. These fixtures are Brighton, Burnley and Crystal Palace at home, West Brom away and a blank Gameweek in Gameweek 29. These fixtures could be a good opportunity to turn around the form shown in recent Gameweeks.
Out of the Southampton attackers, it is Ward-Prowse that stands out for the most consistent potential especially with the injury to Danny Ings meaning that the set-piece specialist has taken over penalty duties. Ward-Prowse has the second-highest goals per game over the last six Gameweeks with 0.33 per match and is the only attacker to start all of the matches. However, on top of this Ward-Prowse adds the assist potential with 1.17 key passes per game, more than any other Southampton player as well as taking set pieces with both corners and free kicks. This has given the English midfielder a return of 4.67 points per game despite the drop in form Southampton have shown which is actually higher than the 4.53 points per start that he returned across the first 20 Gameweeks. This indicates that if Southampton are to turn around the form seen in recent Gameweeks over the strong run of fixtures coming up then Ward-Prowse will likely be involved and there is potential for strong returns at an affordable price of just £5.9m.
The Forward Differential – Richarlison de Andrade – £7.9m, 9.4% owned
For the majority of the season, Dominic Calvert-Lewin was both the most highly owned Everton player and forward within Fantasy Premier League. However, in recent weeks it is teammate Richarlison that has become more popular and returned more points. Over the last seven Gameweeks, Richarlison is the second-highest scoring forward within FPL only behind Harry Kane and has returned 5.14 points per game compared to 4.5 of Calvert-Lewin. This makes Richarlison the best value forward over that time period as the Brazilian forward has returned 4.6 points million invested, 1.1 ahead of Kane who is ranked in fifth amongst forwards. The reason for this strong form shown by Richarlison is the number of big chances and how clinical the Brazilian has been in front of goal. Since Gameweek 23 only two forwards in Diagne and Kane have had more than Richarlison’s six big chances and he also ranks fourth for expected goals amongst forwards with 2.67. However, comparing this to the four goals scored, this indicates that the more central position that the Everton forward is taking up is leading to better chances that he is capable of finishing.
The forwards have become less favourable recently with only two making it into the top thirty point scores within FPL since Gameweek 23 which again indicates that an only 9.4% owned Richarlison could offer a good differential over the likes of Bamford and Watkins who have three goals combined since Gameweek 23. Over the next five Gameweeks, the Hub’s Fixture Ticker ranks Everton ninth for the best-attacking fixtures. These include Burnley, Crystal Palace, Brighton and Tottenham and a Blank Gameweek in Gameweek 29. However, against these four opponents in the return fixtures, Everton scored 8 goals across the four games averaging two goals per game. Richarlison only scored one of these, however, with the slightly new formation Everton are playing that seems to be benefiting the Brazilian and it could allow him to improve on the record as his recent form has shown.
Thanks for reading – Feel free to message me any questions – Twitter – @FPLTIPZ