Fantasy Premier League transfer tips and differentials series from @FPLTIPZ where he scours the FPL market for low-owned players with the potential to pick up big points to help shoot you up the rankings. Each week he uses our OPTA stats tool to pick out three players for the coming five Gameweeks for consideration for your FPL transfer who are currently under 10% owned from a variety of price points and teams.
This weeks article brings a slightly different focus as @FPLTIPZ finds three differentials for just Blank Gameweek 29 alone.
Gameweek 29 FPL Differentials
The Defender Differential – Lewis Dunk – £4.9m, 6.2% owned
At the start of the season, Brighton were one of the weaker teams from a defensive point of view with the sixth most goals conceded per game over the first 20 Gameweeks of the season. However, more recently Brighton has shown a much improved defensive form even without the clean sheets to show for it with only one clean sheet since Gameweek 23. In this time, only Brighton and Southampton have conceded more goals than expected as Southampton have conceded 0.63 goals per game more than expected compared to 0.28 of Brighton indicating that even though Brighton have not kept clean sheets there is potential for them in the upcoming fixtures given the form. Building on this, since Gameweek 23, Brighton has conceded the sixth-fewest shots on target per game, the second-fewest shots inside the box per game and the second-fewest big chances with an average of just one big chance conceded per match again showing the strong defensive form that Brighton have shown. Out of the Brighton defenders, it is Lewis Dunk that stands out for the best attacking threat to add on top of this clean sheet potential. Using the OPTA stats tool, so far this season Dunk has four goals which ranks him second for goals scored amongst defenders only behind Dallas of Leeds who has played 1,000 minutes more than the Brighton defender. On top of this, in the last six Gameweeks, Dunk has the second-highest goals per 90 minutes with a goal every 270 minutes only behind Gameweek 29 opponent Lascelles. This all combines to show that Dunk can combine both goal threat with the clean sheet potential of Brighton to offer a strong and explosive differential going into the blank Gameweek 29.
In Gameweek 29 Brighton and Dunk have a home fixture against Newcastle which is ranked as the easiest defensive fixture this week using the Hub’s Fixture Ticker. Out of all of the teams with a fixture in Gameweek 29, only Fulham have scored fewer goals this season than Newcastle and since Gameweek 19 Newcastle have averaged less than a goal scored per game and so combining this with the strong defensive form of Brighton there is a strong chance for a Brighton clean sheet in Gameweek 29. On top of this, so far this season, Newcastle have conceded the fifth-most shots from set-pieces and the second most headed chances again indicating that out of the Brighton defenders Dunk could have the highest chance of attacking returns giving his aerial presence and goals scored in recent Gameweeks.
The Midfielder Differential – Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang – £11.4m, 8.9% owned
Aubameyang has been in and out of the Arsenal lineup recently with attention turning towards the Europa League and so the Arsenal forward has started three of the last six Gameweeks. However, when Aubameyang is given a starting role, the Gabonese forward produces very strong attacking numbers. Since Gameweek 24 Aubameyang has made three starts and has returned 10 points on average from these with four goals scored. This is a higher points per start return than any other player in the league from all positions. The reason for this is due to Aubameyang being played back at striker for these games, he is highly involved in the attacking play of Arsenal both from open play as well as taking penalties giving him a goal involvement of 80% when on the pitch. This has led to Aubameyang having the joint fifth-most shots per game since Gameweek 24 but more importantly the most shots inside the box with an average of three per game giving him the second highest expected goals per game with 0.76 only behind Iheanacho of Leicester. This indicates that if Aubameyang starts against West Ham, there is good potential for attacking returns given the recent form.
In Gameweek 29 Arsenal have an away fixture against West Ham. West Ham have been one of the stronger defences this season with the sixth most clean sheets kept and the seventh-fewest goals conceded, although West Ham has still conceded on average 1.14 goals per game. On top of this, since Gameweek 23 West Ham are second for the most shots conceded per game with 15, only behind Crystal Palace with 15.57. Both these statistics combine to show that even though West Ham have shown strong defences form, there will still likely be chances for Arsenal to get goals in this fixture and given the goal involvement Aubameyang has for Arsenal, the midfielder-come-striker will likely be involved and so could be a good differential.
The Forward Differential – Josh Maja – £5.5m, 1.2% owned
The forward differential for Gameweek 29 is Josh Maja of Fulham. Josh Maja is priced at an affordable price of £5.5m which makes him easier to get into our Fantasy Premier League sides ahead of the Blank Gameweek. However, on top of the affordable pricing, Maja has shown some good form in front of goal for Fulham as the Nigerian made a strong start to the Premier League having joined Fulham in January with two goals in his first start against Everton. Despite no attacking return since this game, Maja has still had chances in front of goal which could allow him to be a good differential going into blank Gameweek 29. Of all the forwards with a fixture in Gameweek 29, Maja has the second-highest big chances per start with 0.83, only behind West Ham forward Antonio with 1.0 and third for expected goals per start behind Antonio and Harry Kane. On top of this Maja ranks third only behind Harry Kane and Joelinton for shots per start since Gameweek 24 again indicating that the goals scored against Everton in Gameweek 24 have the potential to continue given the involvement Maja has within the Fulham attack. On top of being a strong asset amongst other forwards, Maja is the main goal threat for Fulham and has ranked first for shots, shots on target, shots in the box, big chances, expected goals and goals per start since joining Fulham. Maja stands out as the main goal threat within the Fulham team and if Fulham is to escape relegation, the forward will have to step up and convert these chances.
In Gameweek 29 Fulham face a Leeds side who have shown mixed form defensively recently with clean sheets against Chelsea and Southampton but then conceding two goals to West Ham and four goals to Arsenal all in the last six Gameweeks. In actual goals conceded since Gameweek 20 Leeds sit tenth worst with 1.2 goals conceded per game, however, in the same time period, Leeds sit fifth for highest expected goals conceded with 1.56 per game and have conceded the third-most shots on target in the same period with 5.4, only behind Sheffield United and Southampton. This had led to Leeds being ranked the best fixture from an attacking point of view for Gameweek 29 using the Hub’s Fixture Ticker and so indicating that some of the worse defensive form is more in line with what Leeds are expected to produce. Therefore there could be chances for Maja and Fulham to capitalise on this on the upcoming fixture.
Thanks for reading – Feel free to message me any questions – Twitter – @FPLTIPZ