Holly Shand is a regular Hub contributor on all things FPL and Footstock. She's been playing Fantasy Premier League for six seasons now, with two top 10k finishes and a further two top 100k finishes. 

Whilst fantasy algorithms are now a very valuable tool, the bookies have been predicting match outcomes with relative success for years.

Delving into the bookies odds, particularly when it comes to things like clean sheet odds, to score 3+ goals and anytime goalscorer odds, can be particularly useful for our FPL decisions.

Ahead of Gameweek 3, we are going in-depth on those bookies odds mentioned above. How can these statistics influence our fantasy thinking and what would the bookies optimal team be for Gameweek 3? All odds are taken from Oddschecker.

Gameweek 3 Clean Sheet Odds

Here's the implied probability of sides to keep a clean sheet in Gameweek 3, taken from the latest Oddschecker best odds.

Chelsea 48%
Spurs 47%
Man City 42%
Man Utd 40%
Everton 38%
Liverpool 38%
Wolves 38%
Southampton 36%
Villa 32%
Leeds 31%
Sheffield 29%
Fulham 29%
Burnley 27%
Palace 27%
West Ham 27%
Brighton 20%
Newcastle 14%
West Brom 13%
Arsenal 12%
Leicester 8%

 

A number of clean sheets are heavily tipped by the bookies for Gameweek 3, with Chelsea and Tottenham Hotspur at the head of things. For Chelsea, West Brom are goal shy, but Kepa Arrizabalaga (£5.0m) is prone to making mistakes, so I wouldn't be so certain of clean sheets. It's certainly a promising fixture for the likes of Reece James (£5.1m) though, who provides plenty going forward.

All eyes at Spurs will be on their new full-back duo of Matt Doherty (£6.0m) and Sergio Reguilón (£5.5m) who could make his debut in this game; both have unique offensive qualities to go alongside possible clean sheet returns. Manchester City looked to be much-improved defensively in Gameweek 2, but their defence isn't highly owned right now.

Gameweek 3 To Score 3+ Goals Odds

Here's the implied probability of sides to score 3+ goals in Gameweek 3, taken from the latest Oddschecker best odds.

Man City 52%
Chelsea 42%
Liverpool 40%
Spurs 36%
Man Utd 27%
Everton 18%
Southampton 18%
Villa 17%
Wolves 17%
Sheffield 15%
Leeds 15%
Fulham 14%
Burnley 12%
Arsenal 11%
West Ham 10%
Brighton 10%
Palace 10%
Leicester 8%
Newcastle 7%
West Brom 6%

 

It's Manchester City who lead the way, despite a tricky fixture against Leicester City; they are unlikely to face a tougher test than an away trip to Wolves though and they prevailed to score three goals in that fixture. Kevin De Bruyne (£11.6m) tops the transfers in ahead of Raheem Sterling (£11.5m) and has already had a price rise after scoring from the penalty spot in Gameweek 2. Could Phil Foden (£6.5m) continue to get game-time and be an enabler into this City attack?

Timo Werner (£9.5m) has seen fire sales this week, which is somewhat of a surprise given that he's got the best fixture on paper this week, against a leaky West Brom defence who have already conceded eight goals. We could see an improved Chelsea attack, bolstered by the potential fitness of Christian Pulisic (£8.4m); I expect them to build on the three goals they scored against Brighton in Gameweek 1.

Liverpool are back on home turf which usually means goals for them, despite facing an improved Arsenal back-line. It will be the wingers Mohamed Salah (£12.1m) and Sadio Mane (£11.9m) who are likely to be at the heart of the action here. It's a similar story for Spurs, who host Newcastle United, with both Harry Kane (£10.5m) and Heung-Min Son (£9.0m) vying for our attentions following their thrilling performance against Southampton last weekend.

FPL Gameweek 3 Anytime Goalscorer Odds by Position

Here's the implied probability of players by position to score anytime in Gameweek 3, taken from the latest Oddschecker best odds.

Forwards

Midfielders

Defenders

Werner 55%

Salah 55%

Alonso 15%

Kane 54%

Sterling 51%

Doherty 14%

Abraham 50%

Mane 45%

Van Dijk 14%

Jesus 50%

Son 40%

Alexander-Arnold 13%

Giroud 48%

Mahrez 40%

Region 12%

Ings 45%

Pulisic 38%

Van Aanholt 11%

Brewster 43%

De Bruyne 36%

Mina 10%

Jimenez 40%

Rashford 36%

Maguire 10%

Mitrovic 38%

Fernandes 36%

Zinchenko 10%

Martial 36%

Aubameyang 34%

Fernandinho 10%

Wood 35%

Greenwood 32%

James 10%

Richarlison 35%

Bergwijn 32%

Saiss 10%

Calvert-Lewin 33%

Torres 32%

Ake 9%

Igahlo 33%

Foden 32%

Rudiger 9%

Mousset 33%

Moura 29%

Schar 9%

 

When it comes to choosing a captain for Gameweek 3, Timo Werner (£9.5m) and Mo Salah (£12.1m) ought to be among the key names in the frame when it comes to considering the bookies odds. Considering a combined goal and assist threat though, perhaps Kevin De Bruyne (£11.6m) should rank higher in our thoughts.

Spurs assets are likely to prosper, with both Harry Kane (£10.5m) and Son Heung-Min (£9.0m) within the top five most likely goalscorers for their respective positions. It's not all about premium assets though, with Aleksandar Mitrovic (£6.0m) and Chris Wood (£6.5m) tipped in our forward lines and Phil Foden (£6.5m) a value option within the midfield.

There's plenty of potential for our premium defenders when it comes to hunting the fantasy holy grail of attacking return, clean sheet and bonus points. Marcos Alonso (£6.0m) leads the way as a short-term punt, with a narrow lead to Matt Doherty (£6.0m) and Virgil Van Dijk (£6.5m); both carry significant ownership already.

Bookies Dream Team

Taking all of the above into account, here is the Bookies Dream Team for FPL Gameweek 3:

McCarthy; Van Dijk, Doherty, James; Salah, De Bruyne, Son, Foden; Werner, Wood, Mitrovic.

 

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