Fantasy Premier League transfer tips and differentials series from @FPLTIPZ where he scours the FPL market for low-owned players with the potential to pick up big points to help shoot you up the rankings. Each week he uses our OPTA stats tool to pick out three players for the coming five Gameweeks for consideration for your FPL transfer who are currently under or around 10% owned from a variety of price points and teams.
This weeks article brings a slightly different focus as we find three differentials for just Gameweek 30 alone due to many having a strategy of Gameweek 31 Wildcard. The usual five-week differential article will also be published later this week.
Gameweek 30 FPL Differentials
The Defender Differential – Marcos Alonso – £5.7m, 2.5% owned
Since Gameweek 20 when Thomas Tuchel took over at Chelsea, Chelsea has conceded fewer goals than any other team in the league. Chelsea has conceded just 0.2 goals per game in comparison to Manchester City who have the second-best defensive record in this time with 0.67, more than three times as much. Using the OPTA stats tool, Chelsea have not been fortunate as over this time Chelsea ranks first for the fewest shots on target conceded, shots inside the box conceded, big chances conceded and expected goals conceded. This all indicates that no matter the opponent, Chelsea have a strong chance of a clean sheet. Out of the Chelsea defenders, it is Spanish wing-back Marcos Alonso that stands out for adding an attacking threat on top of this clean sheet potential. Alonso has the highest expected attacking returns per start out of all the Chelsea defenders with 2.7 per start. The reason for this is Alonso combines both goal threat with assist potential. Since Gameweek 20, Alonso has had two shots on target per game, more than any other defender in the Premier League and also ranks second for key passes per game amongst defenders only behind Luke Shaw.
Alonso has the ability to combine both clean sheets with attacking threat and using the Hub’s Fixture Ticker, the home match for Chelsea against West Brom is the second-best defensive fixture from a defensive point of view and the best fixture from an attacking point of view. This is due to West Brom ranking in the bottom three for shots conceded, shots on target conceded, shots inside the box conceded and expected goals conceded since Gameweek 20 whilst they have scored the fewest goals since Gameweek 20 with 10 goals averaging just 0.5 goals per game, not scoring in any of their past three Premier League league matches. With the attacking threat that Marcos Alonso has shown when starting and the good potential for a clean sheet at home for Chelsea against West Brom, Alonso has the potential to be an explosive differential one week punt in Gameweek 30.
The Midfielder Differential – Diogo Jota – £6.6m, 4.4% owned
The midfielder one week punt is Diogo Jota of Liverpool. It took Jota several weeks to gain his place within the Liverpool team, however, he has the highest goals per 90 minute ratio out of any Liverpool player with 0.77 goals every 90 minutes played this season compared to 0.65 of Salah and 0.29 of Mane. When Jota is on the pitch, the Portuguese is often involved in attacking play and has scored 40% of the goals that Liverpool has scored this season when playing. Only Salah has returned more goals per game this season for Liverpool with 0.58 compared to Jota with 0.57, however, Jota is priced at £5.8m less than the Egyptian showing the Portuguese forward is a strong and more affordable differential. On top of this, in recent Gameweeks, Arsenal have conceded fewer chances from the right-wing of the opposition against Kieran Tierney and so although Salah has returned slightly more goals per start this season, there is a possibility the Egyptian has a quieter game against the Scottish fullback whereas Jota has been playing more centrally and is given license to find the space within the opposition defence.
On top of the strong form and involvement Jota has shown this season when involved, in Gameweek 30 Liverpool face an Arsenal side who has shown mixed defensive form so far this season. On one hand, Arsenal has only conceded 32 goals, the join fifth least in the league, however, Arsenal have kept just eight clean sheets, the sixth-fewest in the league. Since Gameweek 24, Arsenal have averaged 1.5 goals conceded per game, which ranks as the fourth-worst defence in the league. Arsenal are also the only team in the Premier League to not keep a clean sheet since Gameweek 24. These combine to indicate that there should be chances for Liverpool and Diogo Jota in the upcoming Gameweek 30 fixture.
The Forward Differential – Timo Werner – £9.2m, 11.0% owned
In Gameweek 30, Chelsea faces a West Brom and using the Hub’s Fixture Ticker, this is the best fixture in Gameweek 30 from an attacking point of view. The reason for this is West Brom have scored just 20 goals this season and conceded 57 which is more than any other team in the league. West Brom also rank top for shots conceded, shots on target conceded and shots inside the box conceded this season whilst Chelsea rank in the top five for all of these statistics since Thomas Tuchel took over. On top of this Chelsea also rank third for expected goals with 1.88 per game only behind Manchester City and Leicester with 2.19 and 1.90 respectively. This indicates that Chelsea against West Brom is a good fixture to target in Gameweek 30 for a one week punt given the strong offensive form of Chelsea and the ongoing poor defensive form of West Brom.
Timo Werner has not reached the heights fantasy managers expected to see as the German saw over 50% ownership in Gameweek 1. However, Werner now has 13 attacking returns from 23 starts or 0.57 attacking returns per game this season and has more attacking returns than any other Chelsea player. With this, Werner has the most shots per start, the most big chances and the most expected goals per start of any Chelsea player this season as well as creating the sixth most big chances per start this season. Finally, Werner has the highest goal involvement of any Chelsea player this season with a goal or an assist in 30% of the goals that Chelsea have scored whilst he has been on the pitch. This indicates that Werner has the ability to combine both strong goal threat with assists and coming up against a West Brom side that has conceded the most goals in the league this season and there is a good chance that he can continue the steady returns shown throughout the course of this season.
Thanks for reading – Feel free to message me any questions – Twitter – @FPLTIPZ