FPL Gameweek 34 Transfer tips and trends from Nima Kafai (overall rank 1,102 in the 19/20 season). Nima reviews the FPL transfer trends each Gameweek and uses the Hub’s OPTA, Prediction, Comparison and Fixture tools to help you identify the best FPL transfers and top tips for Gameweek 34.
FPL Transfers Gameweek 34
We are entering the business end of the season now with just five Gameweeks to go. There are not many FPL managers who still have their chips left now. A handful of us does still have the second Wildcard or Free Hit in our back pocket. Some rogue Triple Captains and Bench Boosts are still knocking about too.
Ben Crellin is the go-to for all things Blank and Double Gameweek. He predicts that the ticker below is 70% likely to happen. I am not confident that we will hear about the potential Double Gameweek 35 and Blank Gameweek 36 before the Gameweek 34 deadline.
Chelsea, Arsenal, Manchester United and Leicester are the ones who could have a Blank Gameweek 36 but Double Gameweek 35. Aston Villa, Crystal Palace, Everton and Southampton are the teams that could have a Double Gameweek 35 without a Blank Gameweek 36. This information makes Aston Villa and Everton assets appealing. On the flipside, Crystal Palace has the best Double Gameweek 35 fixtures but can we trust Crystal Palace?
Those who still have their Wildcard plus a Bench Boost or Free Hit could do well to chase the upside of using the chips when eight teams potentially have a Double Gameweek 35. If you only have a Free Hit left then you may find better upside using the chip in Blank Gameweek 36 and navigating the Double Gameweek 35 with free transfers (as they likely have assets from Leicester, Chelsea, Arsenal and Manchester United already who double then blank).
Wolves are letting fans apply for tickets for their GW38 fixture.
The next domino to fall will be an announcement from the PL that a round of fixtures is moving to the final midweek.
— Ben Crellin (@BenCrellin) April 27, 2021
It is highly recommended to wait till as close to the deadline, as possible, before making your moves.
FPL Transfers Gameweek 34 Deadline – Friday 30th April at 18:30 BST
This Transfer Trends series focuses on analysing a popular or interesting transfer combination within the topmost transferred IN and OUT players.
In the forward position, the most popular purchase is Iheanacho with 164k transfers in. Kane has also attracted 125k buyers, taking him up to 45% total ownership. Watkins (73k sales), Vardy (64k sales) and Lacazette (63k sales) are the three most popular transferred out forwards.
Kane is being purchased, primarily, at the expense of Vardy – 64k sales (42% of Kane transfers) and Watkins– 73k sales (20% of Kane transfers).
In the midfield position, the most popular moves are Son with 134k buys and Pereira with 73k buys. Fernandes (108k sales), Jota (82k sales) and Raphinha (72k sales) are the three most popular transferred out midfielders.
Son is being purchased at the expense of Fernandes – 108k sales 50% of Son transfers), Jota- 82k sales (14% of Son transfers) and Greenwood- 18k sales (6% of Son transfers).
Our focus will be on Vardy (£10.3m) making way for Kane (£11.8m) – which accounts for 68% of all Vardy sales this Gameweek.
I’d like to also break down Vardy’s 64k sales before starting our comparison and player review. 68% of sales were to Kane, 17% to Iheanacho, 9% to Wood and 3% to Bamford.
Without further ado, onto the FPL Transfers Gameweek 34 tips (Fixture Ticker for Gameweeks 34-38 is at the end to help navigate the medium-term when analysing popular transfer combinations).
Kane v Vardy Comparison of Gameweeks 28-33
We can see both a comparison of his stats over the last six Gameweeks in the Hub’s Comparison Tool screenshots below and over the course of the full season too (please note Spurs had a Blank Gameweek 33 but a Double Gameweek 32. Spurs also had a Blank Gameweek 29 so the Kane has played one less fixture than Vardy in this period).
The picture painted by the last six Gameweeks shows that Kane has been outperforming Vardy on the goalscoring statistics fronts. He has a higher xG, Big Chances, Shots in the Box, Shots on Target and Shots.
Vardy on the flip side has been taking more touches in the box and also boasts better creativity stats. He has recorded a higher xA, Big Chances Created and Key Passes than Kane.
The xPoints for both players are similar and suggests that Vardy was unfortunate to not score more points over the last six Gameweeks.
Kane v Vardy Comparison of Gameweeks 1-33
Over the course of the full season, the comparison of the underlying statistics for both players is far more even on both the goalscoring and creativity fronts. Kane does still boast a significantly better number of Shots and Shots on Target than Vardy in this period.
Interestingly he actually outperforms Vardy on the creativity front when looking over the full season and not just the last six Gameweeks (better xA, BCC, Key Passes, Crosses, Throughballs and Final 3rd passes than Vardy).
The only real noticeable difference in favour of Vardy is that he has more Big Chances, xG and Touches in the Box on an average per game than Kane.
Deep Dive into Kane
FPL Transfers Gameweek 34 – Top transfers in
These are the six most transferred IN players in the lead up to Gameweek 34:
Harry Kane (£11.8m) – Tottenham Hotspur
Fixtures: Sheffield United (H), Leeds (a), Wolverhampton Wanderers (H), Aston Villa (H)
Kane is leading the golden boot race vs Salah by one goal (21 vs 20 goals) with just five matches to go! He is having the season of his career leading both the goals and assists tables of the Premier League. His newfound creativity compared to prior seasons is very impressive and he is the key talisman of the Spurs attack. He’s a must-own for the rest of the season and has the standout captaincy fixture of Gameweek 34 vs a relegated Sheffield United.
Underlying stats this season:
- 2,635 mins (30 appearances/ 30 starts)
- 140 touches in the penalty box
- 117 shots (45 on target)
- 71 shots inside the box
- 26 big chances
- 41 key passes (14 big chances created)
- 21 goals (16.97 xG)
- 13 assists (9.56 xA)
Kane was an injury doubt but having started vs Man City in the Carabao Cup final, his injury flag has now been removed in FPL too. The England captain will be leading the captaincy this Gameweek and it is a hugely dangerous week to go against the masses. I expect both Kane himself and Spurs to double down on their cup final defeat and attack these final five fixtures in the hope of finishing in a European spot.
Spurs attack had not been scoring too many goals in the final weeks of Mourinho’s tenure. Perhaps under Mason, they will find some more creative freedom against the worst team of the Premier League this week. Son has not been pulling up any trees with his recent underlying attacking statistics and he seems an unwise risk for captaincy compared to the consistency of Kane. He has managed to have some of the best-attacking stats for forwards this season despite the dips in Spurs attack as a whole.
Their opponents Sheffield United have conceded have only kept three clean sheets this season (20th) having conceded 56 goals in the process (18th). Their defensive numbers are amongst the worst in the Premier League with an xGC of 61.08 (19th) from 87 big chances conceded (20th).
Predicted Points and Opta Stats
The Predicted Points Tool is projecting 7 points in Gameweek 34. This is first for all positions this Gameweek. Son is predicted to score 6.3 points (2nd) and Vardy 5.1 points (3rd).
Kane is a great option for the remainder of the season and the main captaincy candidate of Gameweek 34. If you sold him in the Blank Gameweek 33 due to his recent injury then this is the perfect week to bring him back.
Forwards that I recommend if you already own Kane, are Iheanacho, Wood, Bamford, Watkins or Calvert-Lewin.
Considering that many are bringing him in for Vardy, it is only fair that we move to analyse the Leicester forward.
Deep Dive into Vardy
FPL Transfers Gameweek 34 – Top transfers out
These are the six most transferred OUT players in the lead up to Gameweek 34:
Jamie Vardy (£10.3m) – Leicester City
Fixtures: Southampton (a), Newcastle United (H), Manchester United (a), Chelsea (a)
Vardy is having a great season with 13 goals and 13 assists. However, he has been streaky and did go through a barren spell with no goals on either side of his hernia operation. His underlying attacking stats show that he has been unfortunate to not return in the recent weeks and his premium price points make it difficult to keep both him and Kane without taking money out of the midfield. The emergence of the budget asset Iheanacho leads me to believe that if you want to captain a Leicester player, that Kelechi is the better option of the two Foxes strikers. Which begs the question why keep Vardy if you would not captain him?
Underlying stats this season:
- 2,404 mins (29 appearances / 26 starts)
- 146 touches in the penalty box
- 71 shots (34 on target)
- 65 shots inside the box
- 31 big chances
- 24 key passes (9 big chances created)
- 13 goals (17.40 xG)
- 13 assists (6.58 xA)
Leicester only has three days between their Monday night game of Gameweek 33 and their next match vs Southampton on Friday night in Gameweek 34. In stark contrast, Southampton will be fresh for this match after a week off. Despite the tired legs, Leicester boasts the fourth-best attacking stats in the Premier League. In fact, only Liverpool average more Big Chances per game than the Foxes.
Southampton is considered to be “on the beach” by many in the community due to their seeming lack of motivation for these final fixtures. They likely cannot be relegated nor make it to a European spot. They have leaked goals as well throughout the season with their high line and aggressive press. They concede most of their chances from central positions (13) which in prior seasons would be very appealing for Vardy owners. However he no longer leads the Leicester attack and despite his premium price point, he is not matching Iheanacho’s underlying stats and returns.
Both the Southampton and Newcastle fixtures in the next two Gameweeks are exciting for Leicester. They could potentially have a Double Gameweek 35 with Manchester United and Newcastle. Three fixtures in two Gameweeks is a consideration to take into account whereas Kane only has the two fixtures.
Predicted Points and Opta Stats
The Predicted Points Tool is projecting 5.1 points for Vardy in Gameweek 34 vs Southampton (3rd across all positions).
Vardy has been a great FPL asset for many seasons but despite his next few fixtures appeal, it would seem like the obvious move to sell him if you do not own Kane.
If you already own Kane, it becomes a more difficult decision to make as it depends on your strategy for these final five Gameweeks and team structure. Personally, I believe that Iheanacho is the best attacking option from Leicester and would rather captain him over Vardy. With that in mind, the money could be better spent in another position in my midfield.
The forwards I am most excited by for this final stretch are Kane, Iheanacho, Wood, Bamford, Watkins or Calvert-Lewin.
Fixture Ticker schedule for best FPL transfers Gameweek 34 (Attack)
Here is a view of the upcoming five Gameweeks where teams are ordered based on the leakiness of the defences they face. You can access this on the Hub’s Fixture Ticker to play around and adjust filters if you want to get inspiration for which teams to be targeting in the medium term with your transfers.
*Please note the next two tickers are ordered by fixture difficulty for Gameweek 34 specifically with the best fixture at the top and the worst fixture at the bottom
Fixture Ticker schedule for best FPL transfers Gameweek 34 (Defence)
Here is a view of the upcoming five Gameweeks where teams are ordered based on the potency of the attacks they face.
l look forward to hearing your thoughts and discussing your transfers in the lead up to the Gameweek 34 deadline at 18:30 BST on Friday 30th April.
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You can also tune in to my new show #NetThatHaul on YouTube. I’ve set the video below to start at 40 minutes in so you can see my 10-minute segment regarding Transfer Trends for Gameweek 34 in more depth. If you prefer to listen to it as a podcast then you can also find Net That Haul wherever you listen to your podcasts (Apple, Spotify, Google etc).
Good luck with Gameweek 34!