Holly Shand is a regular Hub contributor on all things FPL and Footstock. She's been playing Fantasy Premier League for six seasons now, with two top 10k finishes and a further two top 100k finishes. 

Whilst fantasy algorithms are now a very valuable tool, the bookies have been predicting match outcomes with relative success for years.

Delving into the bookies odds, particularly when it comes to things like clean sheet odds, to score 3+ goals and anytime goalscorer odds, can be particularly useful for our FPL decisions.

Ahead of Gameweek 4, we are going in-depth on those bookies odds mentioned above. How can these statistics influence our fantasy thinking and what would the bookies optimal team be for Gameweek 4? All odds are taken from Oddschecker.

Gameweek 4 Clean Sheet Odds

Here's the implied probability of sides to keep a clean sheet in Gameweek 4, taken from the latest Oddschecker best odds.

Wolves 52%

Liverpool 50%

Arsenal 48%

Chelsea 45%

Man City 40%

Everton 40%

Leicester 38%

Southampton 38%

Newcastle 36%

Man Utd 35%

Burnley 31%

Spurs 21%

Brighton 18%

Sheffield 18%

West Brom 18%

Fulham 18%

West Ham 15%

Palace 12%

Villa 10%

Leeds 8%

 

Some clean sheets are hotly tipped for Gameweek 4, with Wolves, Liverpool and Arsenal the stand-outs. Those backing Wolves would be wise to opt for Roman Saiss (£5.1m) or Ruben Vinagre (£4.4m) right now, who provide a good blend of value and attacking threat: they'll need an improved performance having conceded seven goals in their last two games.

Liverpool have a plethora of defensive options willing to chip in with attacking returns: Andrew Robertson (£7.0m) has a goal and an assist to his name, with Virgil van Dijk (£6.5m) and Trent Alexander-Arnold (£7.5m) also chipping in with an attacking return apiece.

Kieran Tierney (£5.4m) remains the most enticing option in the Arsenal back-line, but for the time being Rob Holding (£4.5m) comes in at a budget friendly price for clean sheet potential alone. Remember that their opponents Sheffield United are the only side who have failed to score in this Premier League campaign.

Gameweek 4 To Score 3+ Goals Odds

Here's the implied probability of sides to score 3+ goals in Gameweek 4, taken from the latest Oddschecker best odds.

Man City 52%

Liverpool 48%

Chelsea 40%

Leicester 33%

Southampton 29%

Wolves 29%

Arsenal 29%

Everton 29%

Man Utd 25%

Newcastle 14%

Spurs 13%

Burnley 12%

West Ham 11%

West Brom 10%

Leeds 10%

Brighton 9%

Palace 8%

Sheffield 7%

Villa 6%

Fulham 5%

 

It's Manchester City who lead the way, with a bounce-back expected following their home defeat to Leicester City. When it comes to their opposition, Leeds United have shown plenty of frailty at the back, and are within the top three sides for the highest expected goals conceded since the season commenced.

Liverpool are also tipped to deliver goals: it's hard to know what to expect from the challenge of an Aston Villa defence who are yet to concede a goal in their opening two fixtures. They have conceded a penalty and VAR spared their blushes on Monday, but Liverpool's front three are an entirely different beast to the Sheffield United and Fulham attacks they've faced so far.

FPL Gameweek 4 Anytime Goalscorer Odds by Position

Here's the implied probability of players by position to score anytime in Gameweek 4, taken from the latest Oddschecker best odds.

Forwards Midfielders Defenders
Ings 56% Salah 57% Alonso 15%
Vardy 55% Aubameyang 53% Van Dijk 15%
Werner 51% Sterling 52% Mina 13%
Jimenez 50% Mane 45% Otamendi 13%
Abraham 50% Mahrez 41% Alexander-Arnold 13%
Giroud 49% Pulisic 40% Alioski 11%
Calvert-Lewin 43% De Bruyne 37% Van Aanholt 11%
Richarlison 40% Fernandes 35% Zinchenko 10%
Lacazette 40% Rashford 35% Fernandinho 10%
Iheanacho 38% Foden 33% Ake 9%
Nketiah 37% Minamino 32%  Garcia 9%
Kane 36% Torres 31% Mendy 9%
Martial 35% Perez 31% Laporte 9%
Wood 35% Greenwood 30% Digne 9%
Firmino 34% Ziyech 30% Amartey 9%

 

When it comes to choosing a captain for Gameweek 4, there's a plethora of good options, with no strong stand-out. Mohamed Salah (£12.1m) leads the premium picks from Danny Ings (£8.4m) and a yellow-flagged Jamie Vardy (£10.0m). We are spoilt for choice!

There's plenty of potential for our premium defenders when it comes to hunting the fantasy holy grail of attacking return, clean sheet and bonus points. Marcos Alonso (£6.0m) leads the way as a short-term punt, with a narrow lead to Virgil Van Dijk (£6.5m) who carries significant ownership already.

Bookies Dream Team

Taking all of the above into account, here is the Bookies Dream Team for FPL Gameweek 4:

McCarthy; Van Dijk, Saiss, Robertson, Holding, Vinagre; Salah, Sterling, Foden, Aubameyang; Ings

 

 

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