This FPL strategy article reviews the FPL points as a metric team for Gameweek 3 and looks ahead to Gameweek 4.
If you’re interested in reading the article that explains this in detail, you can find out more in my introduction to using FPL points as a metric.
Gameweek 3 Review – FPL Strategy
It was a small red arrow for the Metric Team, scoring 64 points in Gameweek 3. Captain Michail Antonio (£7.9m) earned us 22 points, with some cheeky Bonus Points for Trent Alexander-Arnold (£7.5m).
A clean sheet for Luke Shaw (£5.5m), yet another goal for Mason Greenwood (£7.7m), Mohamed Salah(£12.5m) scoring a penalty and Danny Ings (£8m) getting an assist also helped.
New signing Said Benrahma (£6.4m) didn’t get us anything unfortunately, and Robert Sanchez (£4.5m) couldn’t keep Everton out.
I didn’t expect much from Adam Masina (£4.5m) or Ismaila Sarr (£6m) away to Spurs, so the two blanks were not a surprise.
Bruno Fernandes (£12m) and Manchester United disappointed. The Red Devils were lucky to get away with a win against Wolves.
So this takes us down to around the 99k mark. However, rank isn’t too important after just three weeks. We’re only 18 points off of the top 10k. Fluctuations will be wild for a little while.
The Data – FPL Gameweek 4 Strategy
I’ll start presenting this in threads and articles from Gameweek 4, as there won’t be enough data to notice any real patterns until then at the earliest.
Nevertheless, I will highlight some interesting points from last season’s data and the stats we have this season so far when discussing the transfer options below.
Gameweek 4 Preview – FPL Strategy
we have two free transfers and £1.3m in the bank.
The signing of Cristiano Ronaldo (£12.5m) has sent shockwaves throughout the FPL Community. At the time of writing, he has already been transferred in by 1.3 million managers.
It appears that the biggest casualties here are Fernandes (we all need funds right?) with 763k transfers out and Ings with 648k. Aston Villa embark on a tricky run of fixtures now so it makes sense to move Ings on.
Ronaldo is on the radar for us here. The same goes for Raul Jimenez (£7.4m) and Dominic Calvert-Lewin (£8.2m).We also have a weak bench now, with both our dead spot in the goalkeeper and forward positions transferred out or sent on loan.
Current thoughts include either losing Fernandes and Ings for a midfielder and Ronaldo, or just lose Ings for Calvert-Lewin/Jimenez. Perhaps getting Ronaldo, Calvert-Lewin/Jimenez and a midfielder for a minus four hit is a viable option.
This is how we’re currently set up:
The Return of Cristiano Ronaldo – FPL Gameweek 4 Strategy
First off I want to talk about Ronaldo. The aim is to identify if he’s someone I want to bring into the team ahead of the Newcastle game, or whether it’s worth waiting and seeing first.
In his illustrious career, the Portuguese international scored 674 goals domestically and 111 for Portugal. Looking at his record for Juventus, he also scored 101 goals.
He averaged a shot in the box every 32.6 minutes last season. We don’t need to talk about how good he is as it’s clear that aside from Lionel Messi, he’s potentially the best player the game has ever seen.
Target Newcastle – FPL Gameweek 4 Strategy
In terms of using FPL Points as a metric, Newcastle conceded the third most FPL Points to opposition forwards last season.
This season, despite it only being a small sample, the Toons are still the third worst. Only Southampton and Norwich have conceded more FPL Points to opposition forwards.
It’s also worth mentioning Newcastle have conceded the joint 4th most FPL Points to opposition midfielders so far this season. They have also conceded the second most FPL Points to opposition midfielders last year.
Looking at Newcastle’s defensive stats so far this year, they have conceded the fourth most shots (50), fifth most shots in the box (30) and the third most shots on target (17).
They’ve also conceded the fifth most headed chances (eight). 27 of Ronaldo’s goals for Portugal have been headers (just under a quarter). 110 of his 674 domestic goals have been headers (16%).
From his time at Juventus, 53.5% of his shots were inside the box. Similarly, 77 of his 81 goals in Serie A were in the box.
Whilst just under half of his shots are outside of the box, Newcastle could be a great opening fixture for him.
Other Forwards to Consider – FPL Gameweek 4 Strategy
Raul Jimenez is also someone I have an eye on. He has created 10 chances, and has registered 11 shots in the box so far.
Despite only one of these being on target, the volume is what interests me here. If he maintains this level of volume, he will eventually start scoring.
As mentioned above, I also like the look of Calvert-Lewin. We need to keep an eye on the press conferences to see if he has recovered from a thigh injury that kept him out of International Duty.
The English striker has a great run of fixtures in the short term, coming up against Burnley, Aston Villa and Norwich in his next three games.
Burnley in particular could be a good fixture as they’ve conceded the most shots in the box (41) so far. The same goes for the Clarets conceding the most shots on target (19) and the most headed chances (15).
Given the fact Rafael Benitez has come out and said that Calvert-Lewin is the focal point of their attack, in addition to giving him penalties, he is a great set and forget option.
Of all players, he’s recorded the most shots on target (seven) and second most shots in the box (11).
By selling Michael Obafemi (£4.5m), I may even switch formation to a 3-4-3 and bring in both Ronaldo and Calvert-Lewin/Jimenez. This would involve a minus four hit which would be facilitated by getting a £4.5m midfielder to go on the bench.
Captaincy, Transfers and Team Reveal – FPL Gameweek 4 Strategy
This is all up in the air right now. There are plenty of great captaincy options this week, and a quick look at the Hub Prediction Tool echoes this:
I’ll be deciding my moves and captaincy on either Friday night or Saturday morning. This is because there is so much in the air at the moment and we need to hear the press conferences.
I’ll update this article when possible but if not, you’ll find everything on my Twitter page!
**** UPDATE – 3 Transfers (-4) Taken! ****
I’ve decided to go for the restructure option, bringing in Ronaldo, Calvert-Lewin and Gilmour for a -4. This sets me up like this:
I’ve put this through the Hub RMT Tool and whilst it’s recommending Masina over Veltman this week, it scores 87%! Lovely stuff!
Conclusion – FPL Gameweek 4 Strategy
Well there we have it. As always, there is a lot to think about ahead of the deadline. I hope you’ve found this interesting and it would be great to hear your thoughts on it!
I would also love it if you’d drop me a follow on Twitter @RichP_FPL. Cheers!
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