This FPL Gameweek 5 strategy article reviews the FPL points as a metric team for Gameweek 4 and we take a look at the data for the first time..
If you’re interested in reading the article that explains this in detail, you can find out more in my introduction to using FPL points as a metric.
Gameweek 4 Review – FPL Strategy
It was a small red arrow for the Metric Team, scoring 72 points. This involved a -4 hit to equal 68 overall, and we dropped in rank from 99k to 101k.
New signing Dominic Calvert-Lewin (£8.2m) not even making the squad stung. This was despite what appeared to be encouraging comments from Rafael Benitez.
What made matters worse was that neither of my bench options, both of whom usually play, also got dropped. This resulted in a nightmare week!
Aside from that, and Michail Antonio (£7.9m) getting sent off, I was pretty pleased with the team overall. Cristiano Ronaldo (£12.5m) with a debut brace as our captain set the pace.
There was also a lovely 12-point haul from Trent Alexander-Arnold (£7.5m) which was another highlight.
It’s worth noting that rank isn’t too important after just four weeks. We’re only 21 points off of the top 10k and there are 34 weeks to go. Fluctuations will be wild for a little while longer.
The Data – FPL Gameweek 5 Strategy
So here we go – a first look at the data and fixture tickers after four weeks of data.
As mentioned above, please do read my introduction to using FPL points as a metric if you’re unfamiliar with this approach. This article will likely answer any questions you have.
This is still a small sample size, but it’s interesting to see things taking shape now.
As we can see, Wolves have given up the most FPL Points to opposition Goalkeepers so far. Arsenal, Norwich, Watford and Brentford make up the remaining five.
This shows how unfortunate Wolves have been, or highlights how wasteful they’ve been in front of goal. Bruno Lage’s side have scored just two goals (both coming against Watford in Gameweek 4) from an xG of 7.2.
Hugo Lloris (£5.6m) is the highest scoring goalkeeper so far. A lot of this is attributed to the saves he has been making.
This had papered over the cracks in a Spurs defence that have an xGC of 6.4. Yet they were only breached this weekend in a 3-0 defeat to Crystal Palace.
He picked up maximum bonus points in both of Spurs’ first two games due to the saves he was making. Yet I don’t think we can trust Spurs defensively, especially coming up against London rivals Chelsea next.
Everton and Leeds are playing three of the top five teams giving up the most FPL Points to opposition goalkeepers in their next six fixtures.
However, Illan Meslier (£5m) has only scored eight points himself, conceding in every game so far. The Frenchman is top for saves so far on 16. Nevertheless, until Leeds show a bit more defensive resolve, I think he’s an avoid for now.
No surprises in the Points Scored table, with Chelsea, Liverpool and Manchester City topping the scoring already.
Norwich have conceded the most FPL Points to opposition defensive units. We see Arsenal, Watford and Wolves here once again.
Crystal Palace take up the fifth spot. Brighton have a reasonable run from Gameweek 5-8, with Chelsea’s excellent fixture swing potentially kicking off from Gameweek 7, much like Leeds.
As above though, I want to see a bit more from Leeds before investing in their backline.
Liverpool, Manchester United and Manchester City midfielders getting off to a strong start here. Everton and West Ham make up the top five in terms of Points Scored.
These two units largely owe this to either unexpected assets doing well such as Demarai Gray (£5.7m) and Abdoulaye Doucoure (£5.5m) at Everton.
A different example would be Said Benrahma (£6.4m) who was projected to do well off the back of a strong pre-season. The Algerian definitely continued that for the first two fixtures.
Leeds have conceded the most FPL Points to opposition Midfield Units so far. Arsenal, Norwich, Burnley and Newcastle complete the list of five teams who have conceded the most points to this position.
Watford’s next three games are against Norwich, Newcastle and Leeds, all of which feature in the teams giving up the most FPL Points at the Midfield position.
Ismaila Sarr (£6m) could be worth a short term punt with those fixtures, despite Watford starting to stall a bit. Maybe these fixtures are what the Hornets need to get back on track?
In fact, all three of these teams are in the top seven teams giving up the most chances to the flank Sarr plays on. If he’s going to produce, it should be in these fixtures.
Additionally, Norwich have conceded at least one return to the player playing on that right flank position in every Gameweek so far. Sarr could be a great option this week in particular.
Everton topping the Points Scored charts here is mainly as a result of Dominic Calvert-Lewin’s solid start to the season.
We also see Newcastle in the top five, alongside West Ham and the absolute beast that is Michail Antonio (£7.9m).
Watford, Southampton and Crystal Palace make up a surprising set of top teams so far.
You have to wonder how long it will be before Romelu Lukaku (£11.6m) and Cristiano Ronaldo (£12.5m) start propelling Chelsea and Manchester United into the top five here.
In terms of FPL Points conceded, Newcastle have conceded the most FPL Points to opposition Forwards so far. Aston Villa, Norwich, Southampton and Leicester make up the five teams conceding the most.
Given the fact that we have injuries to Calvert-Lewin, Callum Wilson (£7.4m), and potentially Patrick Bamford (£7.9m), coupled with a one game suspension for Antonio, budget options are limited here.
Raul Jimenez (£7.4m) hasn’t really got off the ground yet. However, with fixtures against three of the five teams giving up the most FPL Points to opposition Forwards coming up, his time could be now.
We may even start to see new signing Hee-Chan Hwang (£5.5m) get regular minutes and if that’s the case, he could be a decent budget enabler.
It’s interesting to see Brentford in the bottom five teams for FPL Points conceded to Forwards. Only Manchester City have registered a better xGC than them.
However, their fixtures are about to turn, so they’re one to keep an eye on to evaluate how they perform against the better teams.
Home and Away Points Per Game tables
I’m not using these too much just yet because each team have only played two games at home and away each.
Yet it’s interesting to see Wolves for example performing well away (in terms of the Metric) but not as well at home. As stated though, it’s a tiny sample size we’re looking at.
Gameweek 5 Preview – FPL Strategy
So we have one Free Transfer and £0.6m in the bank. With Calvert-Lewin injured and Antonio suspended, the team is light upfront. This is where we are prior to any transfers being made:
I can put 11 players out this week but it was concerning that both Adam Masina (£4.5m) and Billy Gilmour (£4.5m) didn’t play last week. This is despite both players being ever-present up to that point.
I’ll give the team one more week and if it happens again, I might need to pull the trigger on an early Wildcard.
Captaincy, Transfers and Team Reveal – FPL Gameweek 5 Strategy
The Captaincy goes to Mohamed Salah (£12.5m) this week. He’s off to a great start this season and I will always back Salah at Anfield.
My likely transfer is to ship Dominic Calvert-Lewin straight out for Patrick Bamford (£7.9m) if he’s declared fit and we see him in training. I’ll update this closer to the deadline once we have all of the information!
******** UPDATE – Transfer made! *******
As discussed above, I have pulled the trigger on Calvert-Lewin out with Bamford as his replacement. This sets my team up like this:
Sticking this into Fantasy Football Hub’s Rate My Team Tool gives us an 83% rating. The algorithm also recommends playing Billy Gilmour (£4.5m) over Adam Masina.
I’m not particularly keen on playing either really, but with Antonio only missing one week I’m hoping I can count on Watford versus Norwich.
There have also been rumours that Konstantinos Tsimikas (£4.1m) will start against Crystal Palace. Therefore, I’m sticking him in as first substitute just in case.
If we get concrete news from Jurgen Klopp in the press conference, then I’d be more inclined to start him.
Captaincy remains on Salah, who is the player that the Hub’s Predicted Points Tool has down as scoring the most FPL Points this week!
Conclusion – FPL Gameweek 5 Strategy
Well there we have it. As always, there is a lot to think about ahead of the deadline. I hope you’ve found this interesting and it would be great to hear your thoughts on it!
I would also love it if you’d drop me a follow on Twitter @RichP_FPL. Cheers!
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