FPL Gameweek 30 Transfer tips and trends from Nima Kafai (overall rank 1,102 in the 19/20 season). Nima reviews the FPL transfer trends each Gameweek and uses the Hub’s OPTA, Prediction, Comparison and Fixture tools to help you identify the best FPL transfers and top tips for Gameweek 30.
FPL Transfers Gameweek 30
The dust from Blank Gameweek 29 has settled. There were three international matches instead of the usual two during this international break. FPL Ze has done a brilliant job of collating all of the international break minutes to help us make our Gameweek 30 decisions.
IB Internacional Break
Here ll find
🔸how many games
🔸 minutes played
🔸If returns 🔥 or blanks 👎
of the most picked #fpl assets in each of their matches
🔒 CS if played 60' or +
🏥 Got injured
🏠 Played at home
— FPL Zé⚽🇧🇷 (@TheLineUpBrazil) March 31, 2021
Tottenham Hotspur have had their Double Gameweek 32 confirmed now vs both Everton and Southampton. They are then going to have a Blank Gameweek 33 alongside Manchester City, Fulham and Southampton who all blank for the EFL cup final.
There are lots of possible outcomes for the DGW schedule after GW34.
I've created a couple of potential schedules to show what's likely to happen at the end of the season if the favorites reach the FA Cup Final (LEI & MCI) and get Blanks in GW36 due to the schedule being changed pic.twitter.com/7qUJNNNRgQ
— Ben Crellin (@BenCrellin) March 30, 2021
Ben Crellin is the go-to for all things Blank and Double Gameweek. He has now shown us a couple of potential schedules for the end of the season with a Double Gameweek 35 and Blank Gameweek 36.
FPL Transfers Gameweek 30 Deadline – Saturday 3rd April at 11:00 BST
It is highly recommended to wait till as close to the deadline, as possible, before making your moves.
This Transfer Trends series focuses on analysing a popular or interesting transfer combination within the top six most transferred IN and OUT players.
In the forward position, the most popular purchase has been Kane – 107k transfers in.
At the expense of the following players: Watkins- 93k sales (27% of Kane transfers), Vardy– 38k sales (15% of Kane transfers), Antonio- 47k sales (10% of Kane transfers) and Bamford- 76k sales (9% of Kane transfers).
In the midfield position, the most popular moves are Lingard with 194k buys, Mount with 140k buys and Fernandes with 140k buys.
They are replacing Son – 434k sales (26% of Lingard transfers, 29% of Mount & 18% of Fernandes), Bale (18% of Lingard transfers, 23% of Mount & 26% of Fernandes) and Aubameyang – 256k sales (4% of Lingard transfers, 6% of Mount & 25% of Fernandes).
Our focus will be on Aubameyang (£11.5m) making way for Fernandes (£11.5m) – which accounts for 37% of all Aubameyang sales this Gameweek. De Bruyne (£11.9m) also accounts for another 16% of Aubameyang sales this Gameweek.
Without further ado, onto the FPL Transfers Gameweek 30 tips (Fixture Ticker for Gameweeks 30-35 is at the end to help navigate the medium-term when analysing popular transfer combinations):
FPL Transfers Gameweek 30- Top transfers in
These are the six most transferred IN players in the lead up to Gameweek 30:
Bruno Fernandes (£11.5m) – Manchester United
Fixtures: Brighton (H), Tottenham (a), Burnley (H) and Leeds (a)
Fernandes has been nothing short of amazing for Man United since his arrival just over a year ago. This season alone he has the most double-digit hauls of any player with 11 of them. He is on 16 goals and 12 assists already with a quarter of the season to go. 209 points already, ranks him as the highest scorer in FPL.
Underlying stats this season:
- 2,468 mins (29 appearances/ 28 starts)
- 91 touches in the penalty box
- 90 shots (39 on target)
- 34 shots inside the box
- 17 big chances
- 82 chances created (17 big chances created)
- 16 goals (14.37 xG)
- 12 assists (11.20 xA)
Bruno is ranked first for Shots on Target this season (39) and is also ranked first for Chances Created (82) and Big Chances Created (17). If you sold him ahead of the tougher United fixtures, this may be the perfect time to buy him back for the final stretch of the season considering he is the most consistent performer of the year in FPL.
Overall, United are ranked second for Goals (56), Shots on Target (165) and xG (54.81). Man United have had a drop in their underlying attacking numbers in the last six Gameweeks. This is caveated with the fact that during this spell they have also faced the likes of Chelsea, Man City and West Ham. Over the course of the full season, Man United rank third-best for attacking stats and so we would expect them to return to their norm going into this final stretch of the season.
Man United have a fantastic record vs Brighton recently. They have won all four of the last matches. Brighton comes into this fixture with one of the best underlying defensive records in the league in recent months. The nuance here is that Brighton did not face many strong opponents during this spell. It is also interesting to note that Brighton is eight for defensive stats away from home in stark contrast to being first for home matches.
Brighton has conceded eight penalties this season and this makes Bruno a definite captaincy option for the Gameweek. The return of Pogba is interesting as previously this season this coincided with a slight decline in returns for Fernandes. It will be interesting to see if this trend continues or whether it was too small a sample size to draw any meaningful conclusions from.
Predicted Points and Opta Stats
The Predicted Points Tool is projecting 5.4 points for Fernandes in Gameweek 30 (3rd highest predicted points behind only Bamford and Kane this week). 3rd highest predicted points scorer from Gameweek 30-37 with 39.1 points. Only Salah 48.4 points and Kane 44.1 points are above him for this eight Gameweek stretch.
Bruno is on track to break the record for the most points ever scored in an FPL season. He is a viable captaincy pick in the majority of the remaining Gameweeks, especially this one where he might for once be captained by fewer people than usual.
Some other midfielders that I really like if you already own Fernandes are Mount, Jota, De Bruyne and Lingard.
Considering that many are bringing him in for Aubameyang, it is only fair that we move onto analysing Auba.
FPL Transfers Gameweek 30 – Top transfers out
These are the six most transferred OUT players in the lead up to Gameweek 30:
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (£11.5m) – Arsenal
Fixtures: Liverpool (H), Sheffield United (a), Fulham (H) and Everton (H)
Aubameyang was a key differential pick going into Blank Gameweek 29 with many FPL managers ditching Salah in favour of the Gabon international. For years he has carried Arsenal even in their worst form but this season his output has declined significantly. He was very poor vs West Ham United and FPL managers were left frustrated when a golden opportunity for a goal passed him by and ended up as an own goal instead.
Underlying stats this season:
- 1,934 mins (24 appearances / 21 starts)
- 108 touches in the penalty box
- 49 shots (21 on target)
- 41 shots inside the box
- 11 big chances
- 15 chances created (2 big chances created)
- 9 goals (7.83 xG)
- 1 assist (2.82 xA)
Since Gameweek 24, he has scored four goals (joint-2nd) which is only behind Iheanacho’s five goals and on par with Mahrez, Richarlison, Bale and Kane. However, he ranks 15th for xG (2.31) over that spell which implies some level of overperformance. Sadly many games seem to pass him by and this has meant he is considered by some FPL managers as a rotation risk with Arteta previously showing his willingness to prioritise the Europa League.
Aubameyang is a differential pick this season due to his poor form and missing games due to personal issues including his mother’s health and being late to the stadium for the North London Derby. He scored a typical Aubameyang goal in the international break for Gabon and I would be expecting him to continue where he left off in Gameweek 30 vs Liverpool.
Historically, the Liverpool vs Arsenal game is a high scoring affair. Arsenal has not managed to keep a clean sheet for the last eight fixtures. Liverpool will be eager to reduce their gap with Chelsea in the Premier League table.
This seems like a fairly open game and so Aubameyang could nick a goal or two. I expect a 2-2 draw based on the recent form of both teams. His fixtures for the remainder of the season are very tasty and he can be a great asset to boost us up the ranks but is a high-risk high reward option.
Predicted Points and Opta Stats
The Predicted Points Tool is projecting 3.8 points for Aubameyang in Gameweek 30 vs Liverpool but he has tasty fixtures for the rest of the season (barring the Chelsea fixture).
Comparison of Gameweeks 24-29
We can see both a comparison of his stats over the last six Gameweeks in the Hub’s Comparison Tool screenshots below and over the course of the full season too (please note Bale has only been a regular starter over the last 3-4 Gameweeks).
The picture painted by the last six Gameweeks shows that Aubameyang has been outperforming Fernandes on the goalscoring front with a higher xG, Big Chances, Shots in the Box, Shots and Touches in the Box.
On the flipside, Fernandes has been far more creative with a higher xA, Big Chances Created, Key Passes, Crosses and Final 3rd Passes. Of note, Fernandes has had more Shots on Target in this stretch.
Comparison of Gameweeks 1-29
Over the course of the full season, the comparison of the underlying statistics for both players is far more in favour of Bruno on both the goalscoring and creativity front.
The only real noticeable difference is that Aubameyang’s taking more Shots in the Box and more Touches in the Box than Bruno.
I like the idea of selling Aubameyang to get Bruno Fernandes back into your team. If you already own Bruno, I don’t think selling Auba this week is the wisest transfer considering how open the Liverpool match could be. Plus the following fixtures for Arsenal including Sheffield United in Gameweek 31 are appealing.
He is in potentially the worst form of his career but his calibre makes me think he can return to his prior best in this favourable fixture run. The biggest worry for Aubameyang besides the lack of confidence is potential rotation in the Premier League if Arsenal continue progressing further into the Europa League.
I can understand the appeal in Fernandes, his own form and 11 double-digit hauls, United’s attacking stats are clearly good reasons to buy him. He is a top captaincy option this Gameweek vs Brighton when many FPL managers will go for players from the Spurs or Leeds.
Fixture Ticker schedule for best FPL transfers Gameweek 30 (Attack)
Here is a view of the upcoming six Gameweeks where teams are ordered based on the leakiness of the defences they face. You can access this on the Hub’s Fixture Ticker to play around and adjust filters if you want to get inspiration for which teams to be targeting in the medium term with your transfers.
*Please note the main thing to know is that High numbers are good for attack and bad for the defence in the next two photos. Also, note that the Double and Blank Gameweeks mess with the ordering. The ticker order is not accurate so check the number values.
Fixture Ticker schedule for best FPL transfers Gameweek 30 (Defence)
Here is a view of the upcoming six Gameweeks where teams are ordered based on the potency of the attacks they face.
l look forward to hearing your thoughts and discussing your transfers in the lead up to the Gameweek 30 deadline at 11:00 GMT on Saturday 3rd April.
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Good luck with Gameweek 30!