FPL player tips. @RichP_FPL uses FPL points as a metric to show us the Wildcard team he’s made for the ‘Using FPL Points as a Metric’ team!
Today we will look at a Gameweek 31 Wildcard team in for my ‘Using FPL Points as a Metric’ team! It is currently ranked 340k with a goal of finishing in the top 100k. Armed with the fixture tickers for each position, we will look at the data provided from the metric as well as Hub OPTA data and to try and help us identify targets for our wildcard team. As ever, you will see tables for Fantasy Points both For and Against – Green is good and red is bad in both tables. Green indicates a team is either scoring lots of FPL Points at this position or is conceding lots of FPL Points to this position. The below tables give you totals for and against, tables of points split into home and away games and also home and away on a Points Per Game (PPG) basis.
Please note: I’m writing this Wednesday Evening and so there may be slight changes to the team if any injuries occur to players playing in Europe.
My goalkeepers of choice will be Bernd Leno (£5.0m) and Fraser Forster (£4.0m). Leno comes up against four of the five teams giving up the most FPL Points to opposition Goalkeepers between now and the end of the season. He has saved 73 shots from 106 shots on target faced, earning an additional save point 11 times. Forster at his price and playing regularly, is a great enabler, considering there are no other playing goalkeepers at that price. This means I’m spending £9m on Goalkeepers which I think is a reasonable amount.
Trent Alexander-Arnold (£7.3m) has started to kick on in recent weeks, and following a 12-point return against Arsenal, it’s time for him to come into the Metric Team. As mentioned in my article for the Hub last week, Liverpool defenders are almost a differential at the moment, and with their upcoming fixtures they could really start to produce like we expect them too. A midweek defeat to Real Madrid in the Champions League likely means they are knocked out of the competition at this stage, meaning their sole focus is now to try and finish fourth in the league. A Chelsea double up of Cesar Azpilicueta (£5.9m) and Antonio Rudiger (£4.7m) should hopefully generate some clean sheets, at least in the short term. Coming up against two of the five teams giving up the most FPL Points to opposition defenders and also Brighton (ranked 7th) between now and Gameweek 34, Chelsea should get back to their normal, stingy ways. I see the West Brom result as a blip and the sending off of Thiago Silva played a huge part in this result in my opinion.
Conor Coady (£4.8m) is still going to make the wildcard squad despite the 3-2 loss to West Ham Monday night. Purely a fixture punt, all of Wolves next four fixtures are against teams giving up the most FPL Points to opposition defenders and with Coady now also presenting a bit of goal threat, there is hope that he can get some returns. Five shots in the box and three big chances since Gameweek 25 could mean he gets on the end of something.
The final spot goes to Stuart Dallas (£5.1m) as somebody that doesn’t get the chop from the original squad. Frequently playing in midfield, he always has the potential for a goal and is easily benchable over the next few fixtures ahead of a lovely run from Gameweek 36.
Diogo Jota (£6.9m) makes the cut after I mentioned him last week and following a brace off the bench against Arsenal. At his price with the FPL Points he is producing, he is pure value. This is backed up by the Hub’s own Predictions tool, which has him ranked first between now and the end of the season for midfielders when sorted by Value (in terms of price per FPL Point being scored) as below:
Based on this he is straight into the team, likely for the remainder of the season. You’ll also notice that Bukayo Saka (£5.2m) also features on this table and he is also in the Metric Team. Arsenal’s midfielders have fantastic matches between now and the end of the season and when Saka is fit and playing, he is putting up great numbers. For midfielders priced £5.2m and under, he is second only to Ademola Lookman for shots in the box since Gameweek 25 and has been a constant threat down that side for the Gunners. Over the season, he is only second (five) to Jorginho (six) for goals scored at this price point, and is top for Big Chances with nine.
James Maddison (£7.1m) takes up a midfield slot for the team, based on a superb run of fixtures between Gameweeks 32-35. He returned to the team off the bench in Gameweek 30 and you’d assume he now plays in place of Ayoze Perez. Leicester play four of the seven teams giving up the most FPL Points to opposition midfielders in these gameweeks, so hopping on now, even with a view to moving him on when the fixtures turn, could work out very well indeed. Between Gameweeks 17-25, Maddison was only second (63) to Ilkay Gundogan (90) for FPL Points scored by midfielders priced at £7.2m and under. If he can rediscover that sort of form, he’ll be a useful addition to the squad.
The final two spots go to Heung-Min Son (£9.4m) and Bruno Fernandes (£11.6m). As mentioned last week, Son has a double Gameweek in 32 and decent fixtures after the blank in 33, so he retains a spot in the squad. Bruno has been exceptional all season and whilst the fixtures are pretty average, he can produce against anyone and is never far away from a penalty!
Harry Kane (£11.7m) is a lock in the Metric Team and unless he gets injured, will likely stay there until the end of the season. It’s not a fixtures thing, it’s the fact he’s the most reliable Forward in FPL right now, and with other budget options having poor fixtures, he is a must have.
Alexandre Lacazette (£8.2m) makes the cut as a punt with good fixtures. As mentioned last week, Arsenal play four of the top five teams giving up the most FPL Points to opposition forwards. They also play Fulham who are currently ranked sixth and shipped 11 FPL Points to Patrick Bamford in Gameweek 29 and then 7 points to a previously low scoring Ollie Watkins in Gameweek 30. I’m under no illusions that Lacazette is a punt, but I think a lot of people will avoid him because of potential rotation, so I view him as an asset I can hopefully use to make up some ground with. As it stands he will also be Captain for the Metric Team in Gameweek 31 vs Sheffield United.
The final spot goes to Kelechi Iheanacho (£5.8m). He is the second highest scoring FPL forward (behind Harry Kane) since Gameweek 26 after scoring five goals in four games. Granted, three of them were against Sheffield United, but he also got a brace against Man United in the FA Cup. He is a man in form and if Brendan Rodgers decides to keep playing two up top, he is a great budget striker with some fantastic fixtures coming up. In gameweeks 32-35 they play three of the top five teams giving up the most FPL Points to opposition forwards, and they also play Southampton, who give up the seventh most points. At his price, he is a clear value pick.
This week the line up will be as below:
Well there we have it. I hope you’ve found this interesting and would love to hear your thoughts on it! Drop me a follow @RichP_FPL. Below, you’ll see that I’ve dropped in the tables of the above data split into Home and Away matches, both overall and on a Points Per Game basis, if you want to do more of a deep dive into the data. Cheers!