<p><em>FPL _Tim takes a big picture view of the first six Gameweeks providing some statistical context, soothing words and advice that could help turn your season around if you haven&#8217;t had the best of starts!</em></p>
<p><em>Check out our <a href="https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/fpl-tips-gw7-the-ultimate-guide-2020-21/">Ultimate Guide to FPL Gameweek 7</a> for all the key information, <a href="https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/opta/" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c="1" title="FPL Stats by OPTA - Player and Team Stats">stats</a> and tips you need going into the weekend’s action.</em></p>
<h2></h2>
<h2><strong>Introduction</strong></h2>
<p>It goes without saying that this season is something of an enigma. We do have short memories and tend to remember past seasons selectively, but can any of us really remember a stretch of Fantasy Premier League (FPL) quite as extraordinary as the start of this season? I certainly can’t. It’s been a perfect storm of hattricks, fake injuries and everything in between, leaving many of the most seasoned managers scratching their heads and asking, what on earth is going on?</p>
<p>All is not lost. Six weeks is significant, but there is much football still to be played and a lot that can still happen. There are many questions to get us thinking. Is FPL truly more volatile this season? Should we be adapting our play style and how? How do we manage our thinking?</p>
<div id="attachment_28692" style="width: 2570px" class="wp-caption alignnone"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" aria-describedby="caption-attachment-28692" class="size-full wp-image-28692" src="https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/GettyImages-1228874354-scaled.jpg" alt="fantasy premier league tips for gameweek 7" width="2560" height="1707" srcset="https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/GettyImages-1228874354-scaled.jpg 2560w, https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/GettyImages-1228874354-300x200.jpg 300w, https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/GettyImages-1228874354-1024x683.jpg 1024w, https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/GettyImages-1228874354-768x512.jpg 768w, https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/GettyImages-1228874354-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/GettyImages-1228874354-2048x1365.jpg 2048w, https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/GettyImages-1228874354-610x407.jpg 610w, https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/GettyImages-1228874354-1080x720.jpg 1080w" sizes="(max-width: 2560px) 100vw, 2560px" /><p id="caption-attachment-28692" class="wp-caption-text">Bamford has hit one of the six hattricks scored in the 2020/21 season so far</p></div>
<p>I hope I can shed some light on what we’ve experienced so far, and how we can use this information to our advantage going forward.</p>
<h2><strong>Firstly, is FPL really more volatile this season?</strong></h2>
<p>Before looking into any data, I’m going to theorise that the answer here is an overwhelming “yes” and I’m sure most would agree. With goals flying in like they’re going out of fashion, the player pool of viable FPL options is seemingly larger than I can ever remember. In the short term it is easy to be lulled into questionable, flash-in-the-pan options who deceive us with their early flurries but who are unlikely to be in anyone’s team come Gameweek 20.</p>
<p>Let’s start by trying to add some context to what we’ve seen using my favourite metric, expected goals (Data taken from <a href="https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/opta/">Fantasy Football Hub&#8217;s OPTA stats tool</a>).</p>
<p>So far this season, we’ve had 171.71 expected goals, with 185 actual goals scored – approximately 8% above expectation.</p>
<p>Contrast this with last season, where 1001 goals were scored from 1119.7 expected goals – approximately 11% below expectation.</p>
<p>One important thing to note here, is that 171.71 xG, divided by six gameweeks, means that each gameweek has had an average of 28.6 xG per gameweek. (Don’t forget, four teams have played one less game, meaning this average will be a fraction lower than if all had played six games).</p>
<p>Last season’s 1119.7 xG, averaged over 38 gameweeks, equates to 29.5 xG per gameweek. This surprised me based on what we’ve seen unfold before us.</p>
<p>In this sense, our small sample of six gameweeks isn’t hinting that teams are creating more chances than last season. Rather, that the goals are being scored at a much higher rate, for the average quality of chance created. This could be down to a couple of things:</p>
<h4><strong>Variance</strong></h4>
<p>My favourite word! It’s not unreasonable to think this is just variance and that we’ll see the overperformance reduce over time.</p>
<h4><strong>The lack of crowds</strong></h4>
<p>There was much discussion ahead of last season’s restart about how the lack of a crowd would affect the matches. In the Bundesliga, for example, the goals were flying in at a crazy rate, but this didn’t immediately materialise in the Premier League. However, I’ve seen it theorised that the lack of crowds works in the attacker&#8217;s favour. With less pressure, perhaps attackers are more able to more easily find their shooting boots, thus belying what xG would describe. Could this really be the case? If so, perhaps we can expect this defiance of the <a href="https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/opta/" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c="1" title="FPL Stats by OPTA - Player and Team Stats">stats</a> to continue.</p>
<p>Think about how this impacts the game. If it&#8217;s simply variance, then we can expect normality to resume as the season develops. Then, we might have an opportunity to successfully jump on Liverpool defence, for example, when others have jumped off. It’s not about <strong>Trent Alexander-Arnold (£7.4m)</strong> and <strong>Andrew Robertson (£7.1m)</strong> scoring 200 points this season, but about them being the best options <em>when we do own them</em>. Keep an eye on Gameweek 11 as a potential gameweek to buy in a Liverpool defender; of course a lot can change between now and then, but if they keep doing poorly in the meantime, they will continue to be sold and the proactive opportunity to be different may be on offer.</p>
<div id="attachment_28693" style="width: 2570px" class="wp-caption alignnone"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" aria-describedby="caption-attachment-28693" class="size-full wp-image-28693" src="https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/Alexander-Arnold-2-scaled.jpg" alt="gameweek 7 fpl tips" width="2560" height="1632" srcset="https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/Alexander-Arnold-2-scaled.jpg 2560w, https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/Alexander-Arnold-2-300x191.jpg 300w, https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/Alexander-Arnold-2-1024x653.jpg 1024w, https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/Alexander-Arnold-2-768x490.jpg 768w, https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/Alexander-Arnold-2-1536x979.jpg 1536w, https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/Alexander-Arnold-2-2048x1306.jpg 2048w, https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/Alexander-Arnold-2-610x389.jpg 610w, https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/Alexander-Arnold-2-1080x689.jpg 1080w" sizes="(max-width: 2560px) 100vw, 2560px" /><p id="caption-attachment-28693" class="wp-caption-text">Could Alexander-Arnold still be a good future option?</p></div>
<p>If there really is some change due to the lack of fans, then we need to continue to focus heavy spend in attack and invest less in defence. If clean sheets remain hard to come by, more attackers will be in the points and they’ll be relatively more valuable to own than defenders.</p>
<p>Perhaps both points are true and we’ll continue to see the <a href="https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/opta/" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c="1" title="FPL Stats by OPTA - Player and Team Stats">stats</a> defied, but maybe not at quite the same rate. What do you think?</p>
<h2><strong>How do we change our approach?</strong></h2>
<p>Well, should we? This is something almost impossible to quantify. However, a bad start doesn’t necessarily indicate that we’ve been doing things “wrong”. While each season presents unique challenges, the fundamental structure of the game is the same. If we’ve had successful FPL campaigns in the past and we’ve made no changes in our strategies/thought processes, perhaps we’re simply at the whim of negative variance.</p>
<p>Even for the most resilient FPL managers, the lure of the big scores can be so strong that we succumb to chasing points. Anyone who has bought a player <em>after</em> they’ve hauled, only for them to revert to type, knows how it feels when we’ve caved to these urges. How do we stop ourselves from committing such sins?</p>
<h4>Ask yourself if the performance is a flash in the pan, or a genuine indicator of future success</h4>
<p>Review the underlying <a href="https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/opta/" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c="1" title="FPL Stats by OPTA - Player and Team Stats">stats</a>, and any history you might have of this player. Check how well the team are playing as a whole, in terms of creating chances. Check the level of their competition so far. If something has changed, for example, a team or individual have much better <a href="https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/opta/" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c="1" title="FPL Stats by OPTA - Player and Team Stats">stats</a> than expected, see if you can work out why this is. In Everton’s case, for example, it looks like a new manager and a few shrewd signings have almost certainly transformed them.</p>
<h4>Learn from past season data</h4>
<p>Past season data on individuals shows you what we can reasonably expect a player’s underlying stats to be over the course of a season. If <strong>Callum Wilson (£6.5m)</strong>, for example, has an xG per 90 of 0.75, you clearly know this is not sustainable over the long term (although a few lucky penalties could easily keep this number inflated in the short term).</p>
<h4><strong>Look at buying and selling trends among the masses</strong></h4>
<p>Especially early season, often you can get away with a more “chasing” approach, simply because you get the benefit of the market movement. Price changes are very much momentum based, so if you bring a player in after a haul and they perform again in the next week, you are often looking at an easy £0.2m rise. Whilst team value (TV) is far from the be-all and end-all, it helps justify these aggressive early moves and should provide you with a slight edge down the season.</p>
<p>On the flipside, seeing hundreds of thousands jump onto an option who you’ve clearly identified isn’t likely to continue their scoring leaves opportunity for you to find the next hot prospect and get ahead. This can be done by seeing the underlying stats, or by targeting prime fixtures i.e. Fulham and West Bromwich Albion.</p>
<p><em>(As a quick aside, one of my goals this season was to emphasise TV in the early season, given how much I struggled last season with the lack of funds. With this in mind, I have made some slightly suspect transfers this season knowing that TV increases can help compensate for not necessarily making the optimal transfers. As of writing, I’m on £103.9m. Assuming I can get ahead of the crowd, it’ll make it very easy to avoid taking hits in future as I’ll have more squad flexibility and be able to afford the players I want. If your TV is low, don’t panic, there are lots of value players this season).</em></p>
<div id="attachment_28691" style="width: 2570px" class="wp-caption alignnone"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" aria-describedby="caption-attachment-28691" class="wp-image-28691 size-full" src="https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/West-Brom-1-scaled.jpg" alt="fpl gameweek 7 tips" width="2560" height="1811" srcset="https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/West-Brom-1-scaled.jpg 2560w, https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/West-Brom-1-300x212.jpg 300w, https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/West-Brom-1-1024x725.jpg 1024w, https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/West-Brom-1-768x543.jpg 768w, https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/West-Brom-1-1536x1087.jpg 1536w, https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/West-Brom-1-2048x1449.jpg 2048w, https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/West-Brom-1-610x432.jpg 610w, https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/West-Brom-1-400x284.jpg 400w, https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/West-Brom-1-1080x764.jpg 1080w" sizes="(max-width: 2560px) 100vw, 2560px" /><p id="caption-attachment-28691" class="wp-caption-text">West Brom have been a team to target so far this season</p></div>
<h4><strong>Find a situation to bank that free transfer</strong></h4>
<p>The beginning of the season is always incredibly volatile, and I’ve seen so many transfers that have cost points where doing nothing would have been preferable. Sometimes doing nothing is best. A lot of teams are looking very solid on paper ahead of Gameweek 7, and assuming no injuries (get well soon <strong>James Rodriguez (£8.0m</strong>), saving a free transfer would be good for many.</p>
<p>Remember that two free transfers is an incredibly strong position to be in. At a time when we’re chasing our tails trying to bring in the next hot prospect, having this luxury while having an extra week’s information should make our lives easier and our transfers worth more potential points.</p>
<h4><strong>Challenge your pre-conceptions</strong></h4>
<p>Challenging pre-conceptions remains difficult. Case in point, me and <strong>Wilfried Zaha (£7.3m)</strong>. I’ve been highly critical of him as an FPL option in times gone by, and for good reason. But, it’s important to acknowledge stubbornness and the fact that things change. Penalties, for one thing, with <strong>Luka Milivojevic (£5.7m)</strong> playing fewer minutes (has Milivojevic lost them completely?), and Roy Hodgson opting to play Zaha as a forward once again, where he seems far more dangerous. Crystal Palace have a kind run of fixtures ahead, always prove stubborn opposition, and Zaha sports a kind price tag. Maybe he’ll return to my team once again.</p>
<p>The point is, the quicker you can get pre-conceptions out of your head from past seasons that don’t apply to this one (big at the back, anyone?), the better your week to week performance will be.</p>
<h2><strong>Going Forward</strong></h2>
<p>I would argue that volatility decreases as the season goes on, as we adapt to the situations that the current season presents. As time goes on and we have more data to work with, we can be more confident in determining whether a player hauling was a one-off or not. Team value also becomes less of an issue as the volatility in the market decreases and we have a better idea of who the long-term “set-and-forget” type players are. Therefore, we can be savvier than the average manager who plays at face value, and always look to be one step ahead rather than following the crowd.</p>
<p>I’m fortunate to say that my start has been what I consider solid, given the far worse outcomes I could have had with one or two different decisions. However, I can relate to a dreadful start after last season, and know what it feels like when wading through mud. If you’re struggling, take a deep breath, step away from the game for a couple of days, and come back with a clear head!</p>
<p>Hopefully this article offers some solace for those struggling and thank you for reading!</p>
<p>Check out our <a href="https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/fpl-tips-gw7-the-ultimate-guide-2020-21/">Ultimate Guide to FPL Gameweek 7</a> for all the key information, stats and tips you need going into the weekend’s action.</p>
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