The price changes in the official FPL game help make it that little bit more captivating, especially for the ‘hardcore’ and seasoned managers. It adds an extra layer to the game which can be taken advantage of if you know how it works and are willing to keep an eye on it. With the nature of the fluctuating player values which are based on managers transfer activity, it’s possible for canny managers to use this to their advantage over their rivals. But how exactly can you use the price changes to your benefit and where to do you start? Read on and you will find out.
The price changes have been subject to much debate around the fantasy scenes since the game was launched. Some don’t like them and some think it’s the best thing about this game. Whatever your opinion is, the fact is its part of the game so best try to utilise it to your advantage as best you can. Over the years many websites, tools and forums have surfaced which predict these price changes for you. What we have realised is there is definitely a consistent code or formula behind them. It can get quite complicated if you do it manually but luckily for us we have some really good resources now which does all the hard stuff for you.
This guide will talk you through everything you need to know about FPL price changes and how best to use them to your advantage.
What are price changes in FPL? – The Basics
As I briefly mentioned earlier player’s values increase or decrease depending ultimately on fantasy managers transfer activity. Now of course fantasy manager are likely to buy players who are on form and banging in goals and sell those who are not scoring any points or injured for example. But it’s important to note that factors such as form, suspensions or injuries actually, technically have no bearing on whether a player goes up or down in value. However, obviously fantasy managers are going to make their buying and selling decisions on these factors so if Jimenez scores a hatrick in Gameweek 1 for example you can bet he will rise in price very fast.
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How do the price change values work?
The price change system Is really simple. I will explain this in layman’s terms:
Let’s say you buy Kevin De Bruyne for £10m and his price increases to say £10.6m, you actually haven’t made a £0.6m, but a £0.3m profit. So if you sell De Bruyne you will sell him at £10.3m and not £10.6m. Why? Because you only make 0.1 *real* profit (selling price) for every 0.2 increase. In other words 50%. Thus when you sell a player for a profit you only make half of that. Therefore if in this instance you decide to keep the Belgian and his price rises again to £10.7m, then your selling price (real profit) is still £10.3m. If it rises to £10.8m then you can sell at £10.4m.
The same logic applies when the players price falls, until you get to the price in which you bought the player (£10m in this example), then every 0.1 fall equals to a real 0.1 fall.
Another important factor to know is the ‘locking’ of players prices. Players are marked as unavailable due to red card or injury for example. Once the red flag is removed then that players price is locked for one week.
One thing to note is a player cannot rise in price by more than 0.3 in a single GW.
How do I know if a player will rise/fall in price?
Back in the days this had to be done manually by going to the FPL website and checking how many transfers in, or out a player had and you pretty much had to make a rough guess. Now we have many great resources like fantasyfootballfix.com and fplstatistics.com which does all the number crunching and shows you in a very easy format which players are due to rise and fall in price. It is worth noting that because FPL aren’t transparent with their algorithm these sites aren’t 100% accurate but are very close and give you at least a very good idea – enough for you to take advantage. There is no pre-determined number of transfers that decide whether a player rises or not, and it varies from player to player. It usually takes a few weeks at the start of each season for the price change sites to figure out the formula, as FPL towers do make tweaks to their algorithm every season. Therefore it’s always best to play it safe if you are thinking of bringing a player in, especially early on in the season.
When do the FPL price changes happen?
Last season the price changes occurred at 1.15am (GMT). They vary season to season but it’s usually between 1am – 3am (GMT) and it’s the same time throughout the whole season. Price changes happen once a day only.
Best time to make your transfers?
There are different strategies when it comes to making your transfers. In theory, it’s best to wait until Friday when all press conferences are done and dusted so that you have as much information as possible and can react to any injury news or rotation talk etc. However on the flip side waiting until this moment means you will miss out on all the price rises during the week and will have to buy your desired asset at a higher price or if you are selling, sell at a lower price.
That’s why some managers like to make transfers as early as possible in the hope of making a profit on their players and building a high team value, thus being able to afford higher value players in the long run. The key is finding the right balance and in my opinion, its best to wait as long as you can until the player you want to buy is about to rise in price or the player you want to sell is about to fall. It’s a happy medium and allows you to keep a healthy team value and also can get player information to some extent. Worth noting that when there are no midweek games, you can generally make the transfers earlier as the chances of players getting injured in training is much less.
Price changes and Wildcard
When you use the wildcard in FPL you are able to make unlimited changes to your team without incurring any points hit. Therefore it’s a prime tool to use to give your team value a quick boost. On a wildcard you can buy players who are rising in price twice in the same week and then sell them for a 0.1 profit. You can also sell any players who are falling in price in your team and save money or if you still want that player, sell them and once they fall buy them back for 0.1 cheaper.
Always be careful you don’t sell a player you have a lot of value tied up in unless you are 100% sure you don’t want them as buying them back will cost you more. For example, if you bought Salah at £12m and he has risen to £13m, buy transferring him out and bringing him back in you will lose £0.5m. Of course, if you decide to sell him then that’s a £0.5m profit.
Anyone who is likely to rise more than once in the gameweek should be in your wildcard team. Remember they don’t have to be in your final team and once you have made the profit off them you can move them on. Also good to know that if you decide to wildcard don’t dilly dally on the decision. Best to decide in advance to take advantage of a fixture swing or if your team really needs it and activate as soon as the gameweek starts. This was you won’t miss any price changes.
For a guide on the wildcard click here.
Okay to finish up lets summarise the key points regarding price changes:
- Price changes happen daily at the same time. (we will know exactly what time after the first day of price changes)
- The maximum a player can rise in a single Gameweek is £0.3m
- Best websites to use to monitor price changes are fplstatistics.co.uk and fantasyfootballfix.com
- If you sell a player for a profit you only receive half of it.
- The earlier you transfer a rising player the more profit you make but it comes at a risk.
- Wildcard is a great weapon to use to take advantage of the price changes.
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