Welcome to a new post series from AbuBakar. He’ll be taking you though the key takeaways from the previous Gameweek

Greetings! With Gameweek 26 spread over two weeks of football, I have decided to split this Gameweeks review into two halves. In this half, I talk about the teams that have already played.

1) Ever since Carlo Ancelotti has taken over, Calvert Lewin is top for shots inside the box, big chances, shots on target and xG for all Premier League players. His owners richly deserved the 11 point haul against Crystal Palace, considering that his numbers have been suggesting that a big score was a long time coming. He has been averaging over one big chance per game and over three shots inside the box per game ever since the Italian has taken over – the fact that he also has a better shots inside the box per game ratio than Agüero/Salah over the same period is actually frightening and just further emphasizes the value he is representing.

Shots on target last 8 Gameweeks

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2) The fact that Palace have picked up only nine points from a possible 33 from GW 16 onwards coincides with a complete collapse in their attacking and defensive numbers – particularly away from home. Palace have the worst xGC and are the only team to concede over ≈10 shots inside the box per game away from home over the same period. They have only conceded eight goals over these six games however, which has camouflaged their underlying numbers. Further, Palace over the same run are the only team to average less than one big chance created per game for goal threat hence the takeaway from this for FPL managers is that Palace in this slump is a good team to target for clean sheets and goals – especially when they play away from home.

Last six away matches sorted by shots in the box

3) A spell of seven points over the past four Gameweeks caps off what has been a very frustrating run for Matt Ryan’s owners. However, the raw data suggests that they have been unlucky, as backed up by the statistical model xG which ranks Brighton top for underperformance over the past 4 GW’s – the Seagulls have conceded eight goals in comparison to a xGc of ≈4.1 over the same period. Granted the fixtures were favourable, but the improvement in numbers has been apparent: Brighton have conceded ≈6.5 shots inside the box per game and ≈1.5 big chances per game over the past four Gameweeks as compared to ≈8.78 shots inside the box per game and ≈2.18 big chances per game over the rest of the season.

4) A points per game average of over ≈5 for Abdoulaye Doucoure ever since Nigel Pearson has taken over the helm isn’t quite reflective of his actual goal threat and assist potential. Doucoure averages a shade over a shot inside the box, ≈0.2 big chances per game and ≈0.2 big chances created per game over the same run yet has accumulated points at a fast rate ala Yaya Toure. 13 midfielders have accumulated more shots inside the box and 16 have recorded more big chances over the same run. Famous last words, but I don’t think the rate at which Doucoure has been scoring points is sustainable.

Could Perez be a better option?

If you’re looking to follow more of my content, you can follow me @bigmanbakar on Twitter/Instagram. Computations and analysis my own. Lastly, I’d like to thank everyone for taking the time out to read patiently, good luck for the remainder of Gameweek 26 – may your arrows be green!


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