Welcome to a new post series from AbuBakar. He’ll be taking you though the key takeaways from the previous Gameweek

Greetings all! Having a tough time deciding what transfers to make? The Review is back as I discuss FPL events, past and future, with a particular eye on the double Gameweek:

1) So onto the double straightaway. I guess De Bruyne and Aubameyang being likely to play both are the go to men for either team heading into the double Gameweek. De Bruyne picks himself while Aubameyang is the trickier one. His actual output compared to his expected output over a reasonable sample size of ten GW’s suggests slight overperformance, but his numbers off late under Arteta have been improving. Even though the quantity of his shots inside the box are fairly average, he has had at least one big chance in each of the previous four games he has started. Given that West Ham are on the wrong side of most of the defensive statistics that seem to matter, I would suspect Aubameyang is likely to notch there. I think he’s likely to do well without hauling big, so if you have a triple captain I’d save it for the weeks to come.

2) A very popular question this week has been along the lines of “What is the correct chip strategy, in what order do I use my chips etc?”. The answer to that is that there is no one correct method this year as to how you use your chips. It is all very team-specific, so choose the approach which makes the most sense given your own team. This is what distinguishes this season from other seasons where in general the norm has been to follow a consensus reached by the FPL community as to how to approach the chips.

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3) Danny Ings has recorded just one big chance over the past six games, a period in which 16 other forwards have accumulated more shots inside the box than him as well. Regression, when you compare Ings’ data post-GW23 to his data pre-GW 23, is apparent – the Southampton forward was recording a shot inside the box every ≈30 mins pre GW 23 (vs ≈47 mins post GW 23) and a big chance every ≈90 mins pre GW 23 (vs ≈379 mins post GW 23).

4) No midfielder in the league has recorded as many shots inside the box and big chances as Watford’s Ismaïla Sarr in the games he has started under Nigel Pearson. He has the pedigree to be FPL gold whenever he starts. At that price, I think he is easily the best midfielder to own.

5) Matt Doherty has recorded more big chances than the likes of Martial, Son and Richarlison this season. Only Sterling, Salah and Mane have accumulated more chances from midfielders. With the exception of Lundstram, no defender has had even half as many big chances as Doherty.

6) Six goals in his previous three appearances for Diogo Jota. No surprise he’s also top for big chances in the league over the past two Gameweeks as well. A favourable fixture run including a guaranteed fixture in GW 31, less than 10% top 10k ownership and being a lethal streaky player based on precedent represents the perfect combination of form and fixtures going into the back-end of the season. I’m so high on Wolves this week that I actually think that tripling up on Doherty, Jota and Jimenez for the remainder of the season is a tantalizing prospect.

Use the fixture ticker yourself 

7) Leicester‘s attacking numbers have fallen precariously over the past three games. As compared to a season average of ≈8.92 shots inside the box and ≈2.72 big chances per game, they are now averaging ≈7.33 shots inside the box and ≈0.33 big chances per game over this period. A big reason for that has been the loss in Tielemans’ form who being one of Leicester’s premier chance creators, has been creating a chance every ≈180 mins of late as compared to every ≈64 mins previously. Owners of Leicester’s attacking assets would be ill-advised to sell, given that Villa are comfortably top for shots inside the box and big chances conceded away from home.

8) I feel like I just seem to be copy pasting this into my articles every week but at the cost of repeating myself, Dominic Calvert Lewin was top for shots inside the box of all players in the league yet again this Gameweek. As illustrated by the pictorial representation, he is almost on par with Agüero for combined expected goals and assists over the past five GW’s. During the same period, he is joint top for big chances with Firmino and Alli as well. Both Firmino and Alli have only scored once in that period however, which suggests that more goals should be coming their way sooner rather than later if they keep up with their numbers.

If you’re looking to follow more of my work, you can follow me @bigmanbakar on Twitter and on Instagram. Computations and analysis my own. Kindly do share your feedback and thank you for supporting my content!

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