In this weekly series of posts I am going to manage a FPL team using the Hub’s RMT tool. The idea is to help Hub members understand and use it better, as well as road test it in order to improve it over time.
How It Works
First an overview of how it works. We take a sample of extremely high ranking FPL managers, typically these will have finished inside the Top 10K in at least 5 of the last 6 or 7 seasons. The real cream of the crop. We then analyse their squads and give every player a rating based on how many of the top-ranking managers own them. If a player is in everyone’s team he’s got to be a good pick, right?
But we also factor in “opportunity”. It’s easy to fit a £4.5M midfielder (e.g. Dendoncker) into your team but not so easy to fit in a £12M player. So a player’s opportunity cost is also a big factor. If everyone is prepared to spend a whopping £12M on a certain player it’s a serious investment and that counts a lot to their RMT rating.
The Optimised Team
Once we have the player ratings we use optimisation to find the best combination with the highest overall rating. This gives us a team based on players owned by top FPL managers. Here’s a screenshot of the current optimised team:
The stars by each player in the above graphic give you an indication of the player’s rating within their respective positions and price bracket. The small up/down arrows show global transfer trend.
Importantly, if a player is only one star it likely means they’re on the periphery of the optimised team, and the next best options aren’t really far off from making the cut. For example, in the team above, Fraser only just edges ahead of Moura and Josh King (plus a formation switch). Conversely, three star players are locked in and feature in over 80% of the top ranked manager’s squads. You can actually see this team and more player ratings at any time on the Hub’s Watchlist.
GW1 RMT Team
There was no data available prior to the GW1 deadline as people’s current teams are rightfully hidden so we had to make an educated guess when creating the starting team. It turns out we did a pretty good job, thanks mainly to Hub Team Reveals!
Below is the team we entered:
The only difference to the optimised team is Bournemouth’s Rico instead of Lundstram. It scored a respectable 82 points and sits at a rank of 839K after GW1.
Below are the results from the RMT tool for our team ahead of GW2. As it’s already very close to the optimised team discussed above there are no recommended transfers with an RMT score of 99%. The tool recognises that shifting one £4.0M defender to a slightly better owned one (Rico to Lundstram) is not going to add a great lot of worth to the overall team so that transfer doesn’t get suggested, although Lundstram is offered up as an alternative.
So, the RMT team is currently holding it’s first transfer! Admittedly not a particularly revealing or interesting first move. However, I can tell you from experience of using the RMT tool over the past couple of seasons that the “template” does move very quickly once something happens to disrupt it. It’s also worth noting the tool does track latest transfer trends so I’ll be updating this post should anything change before the deadline..
Finally, the RMT tool doesn’t select the captain, starting players or bench order. I’ll be selecting the captain based on polls (Salah for GW2) and hopefully, starters/bench picks should be straightforward.
Your Feedback is Important
It’s fair to say there is a lot going on under the hood and it’s not without its flaws. In backtesting, however, a RMT driven team achieved a very comfortable top 10k rank, But backtesting is not the real thing and in practice, it can make some odd transfer suggestions that are hard to understand without some behind-the-scenes insight or greater context. So, that’s where this series of posts will help along with your feedback. Go ahead and use the tool yourself and throw us some comments or questions if you have any. We’re planning a big update in the coming months and your feedback will help us flush out the flaws and refine the edges.
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