In this weekly series of posts, I am going to manage an FPL team using the Hub’s RMT tool. The idea is to help Hub members understand and use it better, as well as road test it in order to improve it over time.

 

Last Week’s Results (GW2)

Like many, an unconvincing GW2 for the RMT Tool’s Team. It scored 41pts, on par with the Gameweek average, and suffered an overall rank drop from 839K to around the 1M mark.

 

A Busy Week!

After a generally quiet GW1-2 the transfer market has roared into life with many managers making two or three transfers and a good number going further and activating early wildcards. As the RMT Tool’s core data is driven by the elite manager’s picks this much activity and fluctuation in the transfer market is going to cause some problems (i.e. inaccuracy). Additionally, FPL no longer reveals any transfer information about rival teams, so tracking actual transfers is no longer possible.

In response, we have bolstered the tool with a machine-learning algorithm to, in effect, predict the elite template. As the machine “learns” we’ll factor in upcoming fixtures, recent form, predicted points as well as general transfer trends. This is something that should help the tool generally be more dynamic and stay ahead or at least on top of the curve.

 

GW3 Transfer Options

The RMT Team did not make a transfer last week so two free transfers to play with – and it and looks like using both or even more may be needed to “keep up” with the elite template.

The RMT Tool gave our team the following analysis:

 

It’s important to point out that the above analysis was run on Sunday night. Given a transfer strength of +20% for the Triple Transfer option we went with that, meaning a -4 point hit. In comes De Bruyne, Pukki and Ceballos, in place of Fraser, Wilson and Perez. De Bruyne and Pukki are very much the main attractions here, particularly De Bruyne. Both are rated well by the algorithm. Ceballos has a low rating but his price was right so he’s really an enabler for the other two.

One thing I always do is identify players that get mentioned repeatedly by the tool and look at the “bigger picture” of the Single, Double and Triple transfer suggestions. If a player is in the Single Transfer suggestion but not in the Double or Triple it’s often an indication that he might not be the best long term option. In this week’s case, we can see Pukki and De Bruyne feature prominently so they are the key men.

 

How do we justify taking a hit?

From using the tool over the last couple of seasons I’ve “eyeballed” a +5% transfer as generally being worth it. So based on that a +20% RMT gain is worth our 2 transfers plus the hit (I hope!). I’ll certainly aim to use this rationale for consistency moving forward.

It’s also important to note Pukki and KDB were set for price rises, and Fraser a price drop. So that was another factor, admittedly a human one. Due to price changes, we would be priced out of making the above moves now, and instead, the tool suggests signing Josh King instead of Pukki.

 

Team for GW3

Here’s the team for GW3, captaincy based on polls. Good luck and catch you next week!

 

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