What is The Algorithm?
The Algorithm is a statistical spreadsheet tool developed by our resident statistician Carl Weeks. It uses various spread betting odds and expected bonus to determine the expected points for each player. Carl has created this statistical beast so that it can be used in both FPL and Sky games.
What can it do?
The spreadsheet has a 'user dashboard' where you can toggle how many weeks into the future you want to see expected points and it will give you the top picks. It can predict:
- Who you should select as captain: By selecting the current week only, The Algorithm will give you its captaincy prediction.
- Display top picks of X amount of weeks. Choose the number of weeks and it will select the top players over that period.
- Filter by price, value and fixtures. Searching for a 6m midfielder that has the best upcoming fixtures and highest predicted points total? Or the best value forwards over the next four weeks? No problem, Carl's spreadsheet has you covered.
- Plan ahead. See the impact of your transfers on predicted points total for both FPL and Sky.
- Sky captaincy planning. See if you have captaincy days covered and when you'll need to draft players in. Automatically updates your budget and expected points totals. Handy.
Bloody hell this is good Carl. Thanks for sharing mate
Really glad you like it. It will be updated before at various times before the season starts (for transfers and to include Telegraph). During the season I try and update on a weekly basis for player stats and spread firm expect match goals (replace my estimates).
In user dashboard, trying to exclude all teams except the 3 promoted teams but no-one then shows in the top 20 predicted players for each position.
There are two things you need to do here. Firstly, C16 needs to be set to No, then set the teams you want to Yes. You’ still won’t get any of the promoted clubs and just players with zero points. This is because no promoted teams have players meeting the minimum number of matches. If you set C11 to zero then it would make these players eligible.
The problem with new teams and players is that they have no past perform to base predictions. These are just based on averages for the position and hence will have mainly the same prediction. Of course as the season progresses we’ll start to get data on these players to base projections.
Thanks for this Carl – going to be very useful bit of kit for FPL and Sky over the season. Top work 👍
Hi Andy, welcome to the site.
I’m going to leave @darkish to answer this one
lovely work mate. in regards to xG data, have you developed this as well?
This is absolutely brilliant stuff Carl. Very clever and useful!
No I didn’t develop the xG myself. Originally, I started using shots from https://www.whoscored.comthen I stumbled across https://understat.com/ which is brilliant. Has a break-down by match and player
cheers Carl, I’ve used understat as well
Cool! Very handy Carl! 😋
Looks a terrific bit of kit there Carl 👍Agree with Salah and Aguero being key up to the Overhaul, and with Valencia as the captain pick for weeks 1 & 4 (although neither fixture is that great!)First time I’ve logged onto Sky this summer. This is what I came up with in 15 minutes 🤔
Fortunately there’s plenty of time to adapt things over the next few weeks…
Very nice team and done so quickly as well. You may wish to change your keeper as I doubt he’ll be number 1 this season. Palace have a friendly tomorrow and Ro hinted he’ll start with his strongest available starting 11 which may give some insight.
Let’s hope it’s Speroni then – the extra funds would allow a midfield upgrade along the lines of Stanislas to Sigurdsson/Walcott (Everton have an excellent ticker for the first four games) or Ralls to Antonio (West Ham have a pair of plum home fixtures.)
Let it defo won’t be Speroni. Bit surprised that Hennessey started the friendly match tonight, so may be first choice but I was under the impression it’d be Guaita. You’ll be pleased to hear PVA has scored two already tonight and it’s only half time :)