The best value players in FPL are arguably the most important Fantasy Premier League assets in the game.

FPL Matthew, arguably the best FPL manager in the world, defines what we mean by "FPL value" and then identifies the best value players in FPL for the 2021/22 season.

There's loads of FPL analysis and tips on Fantasy Football Hub:

 

The Best Value Players in FPL | Defining Value

For this article, I'm using a largely data driven model, with subjectivity included only where needed.

As a result, these findings will not be altered by any outside influences such as the social media bubble or emerging 'templates'. I'm interested to see if the players coming up as best value match that of popular opinion or whether any surprising names emerge.

Below are the factors that I'm using to identify the best value FPL players 'on paper' going into the new 2021/22 Fantasy Premier League season.

  • Opening fixtures. For this I am using the first six fixtures for each team, but discounted to reflect the effect of changes over time. Gameweek 1 is weighted at 100%, Gameweek 2 at 90%, and so on. This takes into account the quality of the team itself as well as their opponents. I'm using the Fantasy Football Hub Fixture Ticker for this.
  • 'Nailed-on-ness'. How likely is the player to start every game? This is based on starts last season, together with my own knowledge and research.
  • Player quality. The main source of subjectivity. This is my own opinion of each player's overall quality (not their team's).
  • Team attacking stats. For all players apart from goalkeepers, with more weighting given to midfielders and forwards (second half of 2020/21).
  • Team defensive stats. For goalkeepers and defenders only (second half of 2020/21).
  • Goal Involvement. Expected Goal Involvement (goals and assists) for the player (whole of 2020/21 season).
  • Expected FPL Points - expected goals, assists, clean sheets, etc applied to the FPL points system for the player (second half of 2020/21).
  • Average FPL Points per appearance - whole of 2020/21 season.
  • Price. Both absolute price, and amount over 'base price' (i.e. £4.0m for goalkeeper and defenders, £4.5m for others).

A couple of notes to bear in mind:

  1. I have included only players who were in the Premier League last season, as it's difficult to know how to equate performances in other leagues.
  2. The Value Index figures mean nothing in their own right but are a relative measure. The higher the number, the better value.

OPTA Stats for Fantasy Football

The Best Value FPL Players 2021/22

I put all of this data into my algorithm and sorted by value for each position. Here are the results:

The Best Value FPL Goalkeepers 2021/22

I am only going to highlight one here, as he is streets ahead of the rest in terms of best FPL value. No surprises here; it's Brighton's Robert Sánchez (£4.5m) with a value index of 22.9.

Having ousted Mathew Ryan from the Seagull's number one shirt, he went on to keep 10 clean sheets in 27 appearances last season. Brighton's defence are well organised and boasted amongst the very best defensive stats in the second half of last season.

To add to this, Brighton also have a relatively favourable opening set of fixtures.

The Best Value FPL Defenders 2021/22

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