This is an FPL series by resident Hub statistician Carl Weeks. Carl uses his Algorithm forecasting tool that predicts FPL point based on spread betting odds to select his Fantasy Premier League team and make his transfers.

 

FPL Algorithm Team for Gameweek 23

There is unlikely to be an article next week as there are midweek games starting on the Tuesday and ending on the Thursday. My initial thinking was to load up on some West Ham players ahead of their Double Gameweek, though this will needs to be thought through. Fabianski was injured last week, Antonio who I currently have is red-flagged and one possibility Snodgrass was benched. It isn’t essential to have these players, so will ignore for the time being and consider when the Double Gameweek arrives.

I have two transfers for the coming week. The first is to remove Antonio and bring in D.Silva who is predicted to be a top scorer for his price. Looking at the cheap defenders I notice Holgate at £4.4m so will bring him if his price looks rising (otherwise gain another week of information). My initial thoughts were for him to replace Montoya. However, I note that Soyuncu no longer appears in the top 20 from the algorithm, so he will make way.  Not only does this free up some cash, but Leicester are still in the FA and Carabao cups so will likely have blanks on the horizon. The Carabao Cup final is only six Gameweeks away and if the final is Man City v Leicester (I have five players currently) it also means blanks for Arsenal and Norwich. This change will ease the process; it is also likely that D.Silva's time in the team will be a short one.

In terms of chip strategy, a feel that a lot of people are considering using the triple captain chip in the Double Gameweek. I’m undecided at this stage, though am inclined to leave it for the future and hope for a better set of fixtures. However, I have had a recent good run of fortune and luck which has meant I’m still in the FPL cup. If I survive the next two rounds, I’ll let my opponent’s team influence on whether to use the chip or not.

Finally, in preparation for the upcoming Telegraph Podcast I produced a couple of charts showing the expected team goals scored and conceded in the short-term. Note that the figures for Liverpool and West Ham are distorted due to them playing an extra game (so for the four week period they play five games and I have divided the total of this period by four).

FPL Algorithm

Expected goals per game

The main team that jumps out at me is Man City who have a reasonable set of matches over the next four, but difficult over the next ten, so I will have an opportunity to rid myself of their players soon. This fits perfectly with the blank Gameweeks. So, assuming they do make the Carabao Cup final, I’m more than happy to be City-less from this Gameweek. The tougher fixtures also straddle later FA cup rounds.

FPL Algorithm

Expected goals against per game

The above shows that Everton have a good run of games coming up compared to seasonal average. With them also knocked-out of the FA cup this makes their defence look attractive in the short-term. Brighton's fixtures also look good, so this makes me more comfortable in my transfers for this week and helping my planning for the upcoming blanks.

In the algorithm spreadsheet the expected number of goals a team scores and concede in a Gameweek can be easily seen in page “Xp gl summary”

My team for this week is:

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