The Kaleidoscope is an article series by contributor Eric Freeman that looks closer at the many perspectives and statistical patterns that often go overlooked when making FPL decisions. If you have a question or topic that you would like addressed, post a comment below or <a href="https://twitter.com/EricDFreeman">contact Eric on Twitter</a>.
One of the more controversial topics in Fantasy Premier League (FPL) is when and how to play your first Wildcard. This season FPL managers must play their first Wildcard no later than Gameweek 16. Those who play their Wildcards early often get criticised for their lack of patience, which is not always unfair. However, there is another breed of FPL manager out there who sees a unique opportunity in playing their Wildcard early.
There are many reasons to play your Wildcard, but most can be put into one of two categories: Reactive or Proactive. A reactive Wildcard follows Murphy&#8217;s Law (&#8220;Anything that can go wrong, will go wrong&#8221;), waiting to activate until the inevitable disaster. Injuries, poor form, the emergence of a new essential player—scenarios like these often require a complete restructuring of your team. The advantage to the reactive Wildcard is that it can save you from suffering through problems that would take weeks to fix with free transfers and hits.
A proactive Wildcard tries to create a positive outcome by looking for opportunities to put you ahead of the curve. FPL managers may be willing to restructure their teams to take advantage of situations like fixture swings, price rises, or blank and double-Gameweeks. When played well, a proactive Wildcard is a bit like using star power on the video game Mario Kart, giving you a boost of energy that helps you fly past your competition.
To help guide you in your own Wildcard decisions we interviewed a panel of Fantasy Football Hub contributors who activated their Wildcards in Gameweek 3, including <a href="https://twitter.com/ChrisTanFPL">Chris Tan</a>, <a href="https://twitter.com/FPL_Swe">FPL Swede</a>, <a href="https://twitter.com/FPL_Tim">FPL Tim</a>, and myself. Each pressed the button for a variety of reasons, both reactive and proactive. Let&#8217;s hear more about their strategies and transfer targets&#8230;
<h3>1. Why are you playing your first wildcard so early in the season?</h3>
CHRIS: I wanted to be flexible this season. I made a few mistakes and it would have taken multiple hits to correct them. The players I owned were dropping in price and the players I wanted were rising. I also earmarked the fixture turn at Gameweek 3 if I felt like I needed to play my Wildcard early, especially in light of the reasonable team value increases I could expect from such a decision.
SWEDE: Mostly because I did not have a single player from Wolves, Manchester City, or Everton. I also did not like the direction my team was going with injuries and poor form.
TIM: Whilst I talk a lot about planning in FPL, the fact is you always have to be willing to adapt depending on the situation. Sticking rigidly to a plan that is clearly no longer the best option is simply stubbornness, and it is important to be able to acknowledge this and change trajectory as necessary. My word of the season is proactive, and I am trying to be as proactive as possible. With an injury, Manchester City options available for selection, Wolves’ fixtures, and some significant early price swings, I made the decision to hit the button on Sunday.
ERIC: I went into this season with the plan to activate my Wildcard in Gameweek 3 believing I could create a unique team for the first two Gameweeks that could give me a huge differential over the &#8220;template teams.&#8221; I would then be able to activate my wildcard for the fixture swings in Gameweek 3 to set up a team for the long haul. I also wanted to take advantage of early price rises to boost my team value, which is something I have been hurt by not doing in previous seasons.
<h3>2. What is something you learned through the first two Gameweeks that will inform your decisions for your wildcard team?</h3>
CHRIS: I learned which players and teams are on form, which sides to target for attacking returns, and which players offer value for their price.
SWEDE: Everton have transformed their attack this season.
TIM: There are so many viable options this season, and it’s difficult to decide where the sacrifices have to be made. As a result, there is no obvious structure that stands out, so the trade-offs must be justified. I also learned that FPL is as volatile as ever and sometimes a player will score four goals when you don’t own him!
ERIC: Had I not planned to use my wildcard early, I probably would have invested in one or two expensive defenders. However, the lack of clean sheets and the insane scorelines so far have given me the impression that it will take some time before we can start targeting fixtures for clean sheets.
<h3>3. What habits and practices are you doing throughout your wildcard week as you work toward your final team?</h3>
CHRIS: I watch the highlights of every game and review the player and team <a href="https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/opta/" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c="1" title="FPL Stats by OPTA - Player and Team Stats">stats</a> to cross-reference with my analysis. I am going to look at the <a href="https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/fixture-ticker/">fixture ticker</a> and <a href="https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/predictions/">point prediction tool</a> for the next five Gameweeks. I am also going to review captaincy options for those weeks. I always listen to many podcasts during the week, including <a href="https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/the-fpl-podcast-from-fantasy-football-hub/">the Hub&#8217;s,</a> to check my thoughts. Then I will bring it all together and hope that my subconscious pulls off a miracle.
SWEDE: I check the <a href="https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/opta/">Opta stats</a> on Fantasy Football Hub constantly. I know that is a cheeky plug for this site, but it&#8217;s true!
TIM: I monitor price rises like a hawk! You cannot realistically expect to build team value in just one week, but it is easy to get caught out by silly errors. For example, if you want to keep a player who will drop in price the week you play your wildcard, you can sell him now and buy him back later in the week for less. Also remember that you only get £0.1m in selling value for every £0.2m rise. If you wait too long to activate your wildcard you might miss out on a double-price rise for a player.
ERIC: I activated my wildcard the moment the Gameweek 2 deadline passed and started monitoring price changes. Increasing my team value is one of the main goals for my wildcard, so each day I transfer in players who are projected to rise in price, hoping to gain £0.2m in value on some players by the end of the week.
<h3>4. Teams have only played one or two games so far. How important is player form to you when you only have a small amount of information to base your decisions on?</h3>
CHRIS: Although it&#8217;s only one to two games I watched the the majority of games or highlights and analysed the <a href="https://cms.fantasyfootballhub.co.uk/opta/" data-internallinksmanager029f6b8e52c="1" title="FPL Stats by OPTA - Player and Team Stats">stats</a> so that I can go into this with as informed of a position as possible. My decisions will be driven by fixtures, where the difficulty is based on team form, strength, and trying to identify the best options to attack those.
SWEDE: Of course it matters but I also take the games since the restart from last season into account when it comes to most teams that have not made many changes.
TIM: Despite the unknowns we still have a good idea about the approximate level of each team and have a lot of proven players from past seasons available. Therefore, I don’t think the argument “we don’t have enough data” is a compelling counter to those deciding to Wildcard at all. Arguably, we never have enough data. But we do have our own feel for the game, understanding of prices, fixtures, team structure, captaincy, and so on. This is plenty to go on and attempt to get ahead of the curve, if that is our aim. Again, proactive is the word – try to anticipate the big scores, rather than forever waiting and just chasing points!
ERIC: To be honest, I do not have as much information as I would have liked. The first two Gameweeks were more unpredictable than I expected. I am taking both good and poor form with a grain of salt, trusting my instincts and data from previous seasons about players who can be counted on to perform well over the long-term.
<h3>5. With so many team lineups still uncertain, how many regular starters do you think you will need on your bench?</h3>
CHRIS: I always try to ensure that all my bench players are starters apart from my substitute goalkeeper. It is a sensible approach when you take into account rotation, injuries, and COVID-19.
SWEDE: One. You have transfers in case something else happens, but with the schedule being back to normal for teams I don’t think there will be near as much rotation this season.
TIM: This will depend on your general risk appetite and willingness to choose those suspect players. For example, if you choose Phil Foden (£6.5m), I think it is reasonable to think you will need nailed players on your bench. This is another reason I love nailed on £4.5m defenders who do not drain the budget and can always nick a few points if needed.
ERIC: Depending on your formation, I think it is possible to have two budget-tier bench players who will get regular playing time. Right now I am planning on having a £4.0m defender and a £4.5m midfielder on my bench who will start most matches for their teams.
<h3>6. Who are the first three players you want on your wildcard team?</h3>
CHRIS: [1] Emiliano Martinez (£4.5m). Selecting Sam Johnstone (£4.5m) was a mistake. West Bromwich Albion are whipping boys and I do not have a spare transfer to rectify the situation. [2] James Rodríguez (£7.5m) or Dominic Calvert-Lewin (£7.2m). Everton have started the season well, they have decent fixtures, and these two offer tremendous value that I would have to pay at least £0.3m more for if I waited. [3] Raheem Sterling (£11.5m) or Kevin De Bruyne (£11.6m). Manchester City have started well, they are the best attacking side in the league, and provide great captaincy options.
SWEDE: Kevin De Bruyne because his is one of the best players in the league and showed that against Wolves in his first game of the season. James Rodríguez because of how much quality he has. Raúl Jiménez (£8.5m) because of his form and fixtures.
TIM: First, Kevin De Bruyne (no explanation needed!). Second, Raúl Jiménez. He is dubbed “the postman” because he always delivers. I think everyone has an eye on Wolves’ fixtures. Third, Emiliano Martinez. I will be glad to be rid of Alex McCarthy (£4.5m)!
ERIC: Kevin De Bruyne, Raúl Jiménez, and Bruno Fernandes (£10.5m). I know Manchester United looked terrible in their opener against Crystal Palace, but Bruno&#8217;s performance last season and the team&#8217;s fixtures cannot be ignored.
<h3>7. Who is one differential player (i.e. less than 10% ownership) you want on your wildcard team?</h3>
CHRIS: Phil Foden. He is amazing value if he can play regularly in this Manchester City side.
SWEDE: There are a few but Raheem Sterling, Gabriel Jesus (£9.5m), Phil Foden, Daniel Podence (£5.5m) and Tariq Lamptey (£4.5m) stand out.
TIM: Chris Wood (£6.5m). At the time of writing, he is only owned by 2.1% of FPL managers. While Aleksandar Mitrović (£6.0m) offers similar firepower at a slightly cheaper price, Burnley have a decent run of games and Wood’s xG was impressively high last season. We know he is a proven goalscorer and I believe he is the team’s penalty taker.
ERIC: Harvey Barnes (£7.0m) was in my team for the first two Gameweeks and I was very impressed with what I saw from him. I do not love his Gameweek 3 match against Manchester City, but after that he has a decent run of fixtures. I may hold on to him.
<h3>8. What popular players are you avoiding?</h3>
CHRIS: Mohamed Salah (£12.1m). He does not tend to rack up big hauls versus top six sides or in away matches, therefore I would not captain him in any of his immediate fixtures until Gameweek 6 or 7. It is possible I will switch a Manchester City player for him at that point. This is highly risky and could cost team value. I have already been burnt by not owning Salah in Gameweek 1, but I am currently happy with the risk. I am very flexible and adaptable though.
SWEDE: Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (£12.0m) because of the fixtures, Bruno Fernandes because of how deep he played in his first game, Jamie Vardy (£10.1) because he is not interesting to me, and Trent Alexander-Arnold (£7.5m) because I actually think Andrew Robertson (£7.0m) could provide better value.
TIM: I cannot say for definite just yet, but probably Timo Werner (£9.5m). I fully understand that he has exactly the kind of fixture to get his first goals of the season, but I think it is reasonable to go without him given the concessions that need to be made to get him in your team. I may change my mind on this, but it would probably mean going without Heung-Min Son (£9.0m). I am also avoiding all Manchester United players for now. I think they are at awkward prices and similar (and cheaper) options are available who can comfortably match them in the short term.
ERIC: I was not impressed at all with what I saw from Alexander-Arnold over the first two Gameweeks and I might choose to go with Robertson instead.

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