<p><em>In this preview/review series, the brilliant <a href="https://twitter.com/BigManBakar">AbuBakar</a> shares his data-driven observations to help make decisions for the upcoming Gameweeks.</em></p>
<p>Hi everyone! It’s great to be back and I hope you all have been keeping well. Shared below is a comprehensive guide of all things you need to know before setting up your squad for GW30+:</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h2>Man City</h2>
<p>1) For players to have accrued over 1400+ mins in the league this season, no player has registered big chances at a faster clip than <strong>Sergio Agüero</strong>, and by a substantial distance. Hence it comes across as no surprise that Agüero sits comfortably top for xGi (number of mins a player is expected to take to be involved in either a FPL goal/assist). Furthermore, Agüero has a goal involvement rate of ≈50% this season which is extremely impressive given the outrageous amount of goals Man City score. He is my Double Gameweek captain for now; given his numbers and explosiveness, I can’t look past him.</p>
<p>2) No midfielder has recorded more big chances than <strong>Raheem Sterling</strong> this season. His poor conversion % coupled with the fact that only one of the eight big chances that he created for his teammates was converted makes him the most underperforming player in the league for goal involvement this season. Only Aguero has a better xGi than him in the league this season. Sterling’s conversion rate this season sits at ≈15% whereas his average league conversion rate under Pep is around ≈20% which further explains the regression.</p>
<p>3) Since <strong>Aymeric Laporte</strong> has joined, City have kept a clean sheet in ≈47% of the times in the league games he has played (vs 35% without him). This season, City have conceded 4 shots in the box and ≈1.2 big chances per game when he has played (vs ≈5.7 and ≈1.6 without him); his impact is evident.</p>
<p>4) Barring the exception of De Bruyne, no player has created big chances at a faster clip than <strong>Riyad Mahrez</strong> in the league this season. At just £8.5m, Mahrez is <span style="font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, 'Segoe UI', Roboto, Oxygen-Sans, Ubuntu, Cantarell, 'Helvetica Neue', sans-serif;">a bargain but the risk is obvious &#8211; Pep roulette. Having scoured through the City fan forums, I struggled to find a team without Sterling; almost all fans expect him to start. A vast majority of them expect Aguero to start too, with around 70% holding the same opinion about Mahrez. Mahrez could be a massive differential if he comes off given his price and the overall balance he brings to the team. However, personally I will go for the safer Agüero/De Bruyne/Sterling combo as I think City will score quite a few goals vs ARS/BUR and I’d hate to miss out on the fun!</span></p>
<h2>Aston Villa</h2>
<p>5) <strong>John McGinn</strong>&#8216;s influence this season has been evident. Villa are averaging ≈2 big chances and ≈1.4 goals per game in the games he has played (vs ≈1.2 and ≈1 in his absence). His return and Villa&#8217;s motivation to avoid relegation may mean that previous numbers count for little. I am not suggesting to invest in him as his minutes on his return from injury will be far from certain, but expect Villa to do better in attack when he’s on the park.</p>
<p>6) I’m a sucker for Double Gameweeks so despite the terrible Villa statistics I mentioned I was wondering if any of Villa’s defensive players may be worth considering. I think the goalkeeper should be good for saves, but according to murmurs in the local press <strong>Reina</strong> might be at slight risk from <strong>Nyland</strong>. The only defender I would remotely consider is <strong>Matt Targett</strong>, who I was pleasantly surprised to find had the best minutes per big chance created ratio of all defenders after Alexander-Arnold.</p>
<h2>Sheffield United</h2>
<p>7) “Would you have <strong>John Fleck</strong> over a Sheffield United defender?” is a very commonly asked question.</p>
<p>No. Fleck, despite only being £5m, is 41st for shots in the box and 23rd for big chances for midfielders. In isolation I would prefer a Sheffield United defender versus two blunt attacks for a clean sheet than Fleck for the same price any day. Which leads me on to the next question, “why triple up on a defence?”</p>
<p>Villa are fourth from bottom for big chances over the season and lie worst for big chances and xG over the past 10 GW&#8217;s. Further, Newcastle have the fewest shots in the box and also the worst xG over the season.</p>
<p>8) Now who do I think are the best Sheffield United defenders to get? I did some statistical research and below were my findings:</p>
<p>(best to worst statistically)</p>
<p>Goal threat: <strong>Egan, Stevens, OConnell, Baldock, Basham</strong></p>
<p>Creativity: <strong>Stevens, OConnell, Baldock, Basham, Egan</strong></p>
<p>Bonus: Basham, <strong>OConnell, Stevens, Egan, Baldock</strong></p>
<p>Take your pick. I excluded Lundstram as his pros/cons are well known. A brace recently, an expectation among the Blades fans that he&#8217;ll start, a possible contract extension and  the fact that he remains the only &#8220;defender&#8221; in the top five for both big chances and big chances created making him the most explosive defender this Gameweek means that <strong>John Lundstram</strong> is in my team unless I hear any news pre-deadline regarding his availability.</p>
<h2>Arsenal</h2>
<p>9) Is <strong>Pierre Emerick Aubameyang</strong> worth £11.1m even with a double? In the away games Arteta has managed so far, Aubameyang is not even in the top 10 forwards for shots in the box nor xG. Man City and even Brighton are ranked first and third for least big chances conceded at home over the past ten GW&#8217;s. Having said that, the sample size under Arteta is small and Aubameyang has often defied the xG model in the past so I’m having a hard time deciding whether or not to include him in my squad.</p>
<h2>Single Gameweek Options</h2>
<p>10) No team in the history of the league (since OPTA records were kept) has conceded as many shots in the box over the first 29 Gameweeks as Villa. <strong>Tammy Abraham </strong>and<strong> Christian Pulisic</strong> are the ones most likely to benefit having the best expected goal involvements and big chances per min of Chelsea players. <strong>Mount</strong> at £6.2m could be worth interesting but Pulisic has accumulated as many big chances as Mount in half as much minutes.</p>
<p>11) Over the entire season, <strong>Raul Jimenèz</strong> is top in forwards for shots inside the box, big chances created and xGi. Jimenèz’s assist potential is often underrated but having gone through the numbers, I can safely say that relative to other forwards, Jimenèz’s chance creation numbers are elite. In Gameweek 30+ he faces West Ham who are ranked 2nd for big chances and shots in the box conceded since Moyes has taken over. Primed for points!</p>
<h2>Strategies</h2>
<p>12) Lastly, I’d like to say that there are so many <strong>strategies</strong> at play that the decision on what chip to proceed with is entirely dependent on your own preference as its very team specific. I see why Bench Boost is popular, as it gives you the chance to go all out in a Double Gameweek with a handpicked 15. The Free Hit, meanwhile gives you flexibility on when to play the wildcard &#8211; particularly if your existing team is good to go for the upcoming Gameweeks. For those with the Triple Captain chip left, I’d suggest you to roll the dice and dream big with the Man City options we have at our disposal this week.</p>
<p>Computations and analysis my own. If you are looking to follow more of my work:</p>
<p>Twitter: twitter.com/bigmanbakar</p>
<p>Instagram: instagram.com/bigmanbakar</p>
<p>Thank you for taking the time out to read patiently, all the best for Gameweek 30+!</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
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The Preview – FPL Gameweek 30+

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