<p><em>In this FPL review series, the brilliant <a href="https://twitter.com/BigManBakar">AbuBakar</a> shares his data-driven observations to help us make decisions for the upcoming Gameweeks.</em></p>
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<p>Hi everyone, welcome to the latest edition of The Review. Presented below is my analysis of the Premier League action in Gamweek 1 with a look ahead to Gameweek 2:</p>
<p>1) I begin with the <strong>captaincy</strong> this week. For me, the debate is realistically between two players this week – Pierre Emerick Aubameyang and Anthony Martial. Aubameyang is the safer option, who not only has the advantage in terms of being heavily favoured by the odds this week, and also has the added benefit of being a midfielder so he gets the additional point per goal and clean sheet. Arsenal looked really impressive against Fulham and will now be up against a West Ham attack that had the highest xGc of all non-promoted teams this week. Further, Aubameyang is on penalties and no player recorded more big chances per game at home post restart than him.</p>
<p>I really like Anthony Martial as a differential as well. I prefer him over Bruno this week, because of his home record (more on that later) and with less than 15% ownership he is a player very few will own. United were creating on average three big chances per game at home post restart, and will now be up against a Palace defence that were third from bottom for big chances conceded during the same spell. I can see United winning comfortably in this one.</p>
<p>2) <strong>Mohamed Salah – hold or sell?</strong> Eight shots inside the box, four chances created and 21 penalty area touches is as good as it gets from a midfielder. In this form, I wouldn’t recommend selling him because I still think there’s every chance he matches someone like a Bruno Fernandes in the next couple of Gameweeks. Selling Salah to upgrade elsewhere is a risk in itself because with no accumulated free transfers that means taking a hit to sell Salah, which has a high chance of backfiring.</p>
<p>I would be more tempted to sell Salah however, if I was on a wildcard because that would have meant that I could have upgraded elsewhere easily. And I think that might be a smart strategy, because this is where the concept of VORP (value over replacement player) comes into play and if you are unlikely to captain Salah in the next four (che ARS avl eve) that ploy might be fruitful. His numbers home and away last season are given below:</p>
<p><strong>Salah at home v Salah away:</strong></p>
<p>Mins per shot in the box: <strong>26 v 27</strong></p>
<p>Mins per big chance: <strong>83 v 119</strong></p>
<p>Mins per big chance created: <strong>197 v 217</strong></p>
<p>As you can see Salah tends to get far better chances at home. Disclaimer: The away data I quoted is slightly skewed and inflated by Salah’s two big hauls away from home when Mane wasn’t in the team (We know Salah is a bigger threat when Mane isn’t around)</p>
<p>This is why I don’t think there is a right or a wrong answer to this question here. In my opinion, whether or not to sell Salah is dependent on your team. On a wildcard, I’d sell. Otherwise, I wouldn’t.</p>
<p>3) <strong>When is the best time to wildcard?</strong> I think the best time to wildcard is when the opportunity presents itself to gain ground on other FPL managers by jumping on a combination of explosive players who are low owned with good fixtures, or when your team is so out of shape that wildcard becomes your get out of jail card. I prefer the former approach, which is one of the reasons in my mind I had penciled in a wildcard for Gameweek 3 because it maximises upside.</p>
<p>Funnily enough, I was discussing this at length with a close friend of mine last night where we had an interesting conversation on when was the best time to wildcard this season, and as to why Gameweek 3 was a better option than Gameweek 2 itself. So together we made a rough draft for Gameweek 2, and it turned out to be so good that it had me thinking that this might be the week to jump on board. Man United/Everton/Wolves assets are proven and look so explosive for the next four to six weeks that you are left asking yourself as to what you are waiting for. Almost half the team I own right now is different to the one I came up with, so it got me thinking. Make a draft, compare it with your own team and your friends’ teams, and ask yourself the same question. Too many differentials there with upside for me to pass up.</p>
<p>Is it worth waiting to see whether United will gel again post restart, or whether Everton’s performance is a one-off? The likes of Rashford/Martial/Bruno Fernandes and Rodriguez/Richarlison/Calvert Lewin all have supreme fixtures and minimal ownership (most with less than 15%) at the moment. I think it’s more wishful thinking than anything else expecting United attackers to start blanking all of a sudden (watch me eat my words later!) and I know under Ancelotti, when Everton really clicked they were third only to City and Liverpool for xG for a prolonged period between Gameweek 20 and 28 last season. I think I agree with my friend when he says that the best time to catch a haul is now, before these players become highly owned because this is when the bulk of the damage can be done. Podence as a budget enabler has already convinced me, so as of now I’m leaning more towards pulling the trigger than waiting for Gameweek 3. Lets see if I can stop my knees!</p>
<p>4) This opinion might be controversial as Bruno Fernandes is this flavour of the Gameweek on social media this week but I think Martial and Rashford might have more potential than him against Palace. I say that because Bruno tends to do better away in general. Here is how all three of them compare at home:</p>
<p>Post restart at home:</p>
<p><strong>Martial vs Rashford vs Bruno</strong></p>
<p>Shots in the box: <strong>9 v 6 v 1</strong></p>
<p>Big chances: <strong>4 v 4 v 2</strong></p>
<p>Big chances created: <strong>3 v 3 v 1</strong></p>
<p>FPL points per game: <strong>13.25 v 5.75 v 6</strong></p>
<p>Bruno, meanwhile is a far more lethal asset away:</p>
<p><strong>Martial vs Rashford vs Bruno</strong></p>
<p>Shots in the box: <strong>6 v 8 v 9</strong></p>
<p>Big chances: <strong>2 v 3 v 6</strong></p>
<p>Big chances created: <strong>0 v 2 v 1</strong></p>
<p>FPL points per game: <strong>5 v 4 v 11</strong></p>
<p>5) <strong>What are the defences worth investing in?</strong> I think for those on wildcard investing in a United, Wolves or an Everton defender might be the way to go as fixtures for these three are extremely favourable. I think Saïss, Shaw and Coleman are the ones who offer best value here. Marcal was unusually defensive for a wing back, recording just seven touches in the final third vs Sheffield United so I would prefer Saïss for his goal threat.</p>
<p>Lindelöf has negligible goal threat while Everton are being linked with Tomori so I’m not exactly certain on how secure Keane’s place is. Kenny will come in at some point for Coleman but for now, Coleman should be safe. Digne is the most explosive of these options but I have my doubts on whether he is worth the £1.0m premium. His creativity numbers under Ancelotti are nothing to write home about. Wolves and Man United conceded the fewest big chances post restart, while Everton should tighten up with the solidity of Doucoure and Allan in front of the defence.</p>
<p>6) <strong>Dele Alli – hold or sell?</strong> As I write this, news is coming in that Alli has been left out of the Spurs squad for the Europa League game. It’s been said that Alli has been told by Jose Mourinho to stay behind at the club’s Enfield headquarters. This is extremely bizarre, considering that Alli played just 45 minutes so there was little need to rest him so it definitely means there is something wrong behind the scenes. I would advise owners to sell.<br />
For those planning to wildcard in Gameweek 3, my pick for a one week punt would be Willian. Willian was Arsenal’s most advanced player vs Fulham on the average position maps and had the best expected goal involvement of all players in the league after Vardy and Salah this week. He will now be up against a West Ham side that looked all over the place versus Newcastle.</p>
<p>Those looking for a long term asset should look at James Rodríguez whose five chances created by James Rodriguez was the highest among all players to have played this Gameweek. I think it’s likely that he could be on penalties too, given that Sigurdsson isn’t first choice anymore and no one else in the Everton first team has a prolific record and history of taking them.</p>
<p>7) In this section I’d like to talk about players who were popular picks but failed to haul in the first Gameweek. First up are the Saints strikers, <strong>Che Adams and Danny Ings.</strong> Both had one big chance a piece but were unfortunate to be denied by Guaita. I would hold onto them, as the Spurs defence isn’t as watertight away than at home, so I’d expect Saints to score and if they do there’s every chance the Saints duo are involved.</p>
<p><strong>Kyle Walker Peters</strong> narrowly escaped a red card but what was encouraging to see for his owners was that he had the most touches in the opposition half of all defenders in the Gameweek which bodes well in terms of potential attacking returns for those who have shown faith.</p>
<p>I now move on to <strong>Timo Werner and Kai Havertz.</strong> I expected big things from them, but the returns weren’t great. Werner looked great on the eye test, stretching that Brighton defence and making runs in behind. His total of five shots inside the box was more than any other forward this week, which was encouraging to see. Havertz though was a different story. No shots and penalty area touches, combined with the fact that nearly ∼60% of his touches came in his own half spells worry for owners. I think he’ll be a better asset with the likes of Ziyech and Pulisic in the team, when he is playing more as a #10 which comes more naturally to him.</p>
<p>8) Arsenal conceded just one shot inside the box against Fulham, having an exceptionally low xGc too. West Ham created no big chances against a Newcastle defence that were 3rd worst for big chances conceded away last season which suggests that another <strong>Arsenal clean sheet</strong> might be on the cards. Keeping in mind that Leeds kept the bulk of their clean sheets at Elland Road (their record of 13 home clean sheets was four better than what any other Championship club managed at home), another tough test awaits Fulham and <strong>Aleksandar Mitrović</strong> given that Fulham were 17th for away goals scored in the Championship last season.</p>
<p>9) The Spurs-Everton game was a fascinating watch. <strong>Dominic Calvert Lewin</strong> scored but interestingly <strong>Richarlison</strong> outnumbered him for shots inside the box (5 v 2), penalty area touches (9 v 2) and big chances (2 v 0). I was surprised to notice that, considering that Richarlison’s numbers weren’t a patch on Calvert Lewin’s since Ancelotti joined last season. I wonder whether the signing of James Rodríguez has something to do with this, because all five chances that the Colombian created were for Richarlison.</p>
<p><strong>Ben Davies</strong> recorded 27 touches in the final third, which was higher than <strong>Matt Doherty</strong>&#8216;s (20) and significantly higher than the average number of touches per game in the final third he registered under Mourinho last season (13). I’m not saying he’s a better option that Doherty but this makes me wonder if he has been a given greater license to attack this season. Doherty himself had a great chance to score from but was denied by Pickford. I think he will represent value at some point this season, even when priced at £6.0m. <strong>Son Heung Min and Harry Kane</strong> created a big chance each, but other than that had little impact.</p>
<p>10) <strong>Liverpool defence and Sadio Mané – sell or hold?</strong> I wouldn’t write off the Liverpool defence after just one game. If it weren’t for Van Dijk’s nonchalance and some clinical finishing from Leeds, the outcome could have been different. On paper, three goals conceded at home to a newly promoted side looks horrible but when you consider that Leeds scored from each of their three shots in the box, that tells me that Liverpool were unfortunate to concede that many. Besides, with Robertson and Trent, there’s always a chance of an attacking return anyway. It was worth noting that Robertson again took five corners, which adds to his value as an explosive asset.</p>
<p>I would personally sell Sadio Mané as I think better opportunities present themselves particularly when I look at United assets, their potential and their ownership. However, saving a transfer and holding onto Mané isn’t the worst idea either. He still had three shots in the box and created the most chances of all Liverpool players despite the fact that he wasn’t involved in any of the four goals that Liverpool scored.</p>
<p>Computations and analysis my own. If you are looking to follow more of my content, follow me at:</p>
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<p>Thank you for taking the time out to read and good luck for Gameweek 2!</p>
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The Review | FPL Gameweek 1

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