Fantasy Premier League transfer tips and differentials series from @FPLTIPZ where he scours the FPL market for low-owned players with the potential to pick up big points to help shoot you up the rankings. Each week he uses our OPTA stats tool to pick out three players for the coming five Gameweeks for consideration for your FPL transfer who are currently under 10% owned from a variety of price points and teams.
Double Gameweek 25 FPL Differentials
The Defender Differential – Matt Targett – £4.9m, 9.8% owned
Aston Villa have been one of the standout performers so far this season with many of the assets becoming highly owned such as Grealish (38.6%), Martinez (35.9%) and Watkins (23.0%). Martinez specifically has seen such an increase in ownership due to Aston Villa ranking second for clean sheets this season only behind current Premier League leaders Manchester City. With this other Aston Villa defenders have gone under the radar despite being strong performers. Matt Targett has good attacking threat on top of the clean sheet points and as a result, has the fourth-highest points per start in the last 15 Gameweeks with 5.23 behind only Stones, Dawson and Dunk as per the Hub’s OPTA stats tool. The reason for this is the assist and bonus point potential that Targett adds on top of the clean sheets. Targett makes 0.62 key passes per game and returns a bonus point every three matches and so on top of the strong clean sheet potential that all Aston Villa defenders have to make Matt Targett potentially the best differential amongst the Aston Villa defence.
Using the Hub’s Fixture Ticker Aston Villa rank fifth for the best upcoming fixtures from a defensive point of view. These fixtures include Leicester and Wolves at home and Newcastle and Leeds away followed by a blank Gameweek in Gameweek 29. There is also the possibility of Aston Villa and Targett having additional fixtures added in these upcoming Gameweeks but this is yet to be confirmed. Aston Villa have the second most clean sheets with 12 from just 22 matches including clean sheets against Arsenal, Leicester, Wolves and Southampton indicating that even in the more difficult fixtures against Leeds and Leicester there is potential for clean sheets for a differential defender like Targett at a very affordable price of £4.9m.
The Midfielder Differential – Harvey Barnes – £6.8m, 7.7% owned
Across the last nine matches, only Manchester City and West Ham have picked up more points than Leicester who are now sat third in the Premier League table. It is the midfield combination of Harvey Barnes and James Maddison, who have 50% and 54% goal involvement respectively, that have primarily driven this form. Using the OPTA stats tool Harvey Barnes is the fourth-highest scoring FPL midfielder across the last 10 Gameweeks behind only Gundogan, Foden and Maddison. The reason for this is the goal threat that Barnes has had in recent weeks; in just eight starts Barnes has had 14 shots inside the box and four big chances which ranks second amongst these midfielders only behind Gundogan. As well as this Barnes does have some assist potential with 14 key passes and three assists in the last eight matches giving Barnes 5.88 points per match across this period. The recent form shows that Barnes has the potential for both assists and goals as well as being able to get returns no matter the opposition.
Although Barnes has the possibility of getting returns against any opposition, the strong upcoming fixtures could allow the English midfielder to maximise his returns in the upcoming Gameweeks. These fixtures include Aston Villa and Brighton away with Arsenal and Sheffield United at home. There is also the possibility of an extra fixture being added into Gameweek 26 on top of the Arsenal fixture giving Barnes and Leicester a Double Gameweek, however, it does also mean that Leicester will likely have a Blank Gameweek in Gameweek 29 due to FA cup duties. So far this season Leicester have averaged 1.75 goals per match which is the fourth highest in the league and have only failed to score in five of their 24 games this season again showing that there is a strong possibility for Leicester and Barnes specifically to get some differential returns over the upcoming Gameweeks.
The Forward Differential – Danny Ings – £8.4m, 10.3% owned
On recent form, Southampton have not been at the level they were at in the first half of the season both from an attacking and defensive point of view. Across the last nine Gameweeks, no team has picked up fewer points than Southampton with just five points and a negative goal difference of -15 across these nine matches. However, even with this dip in form, Ings still remains one of the best performings forwards when available for selection. Ings has returned 4.17 points per start but a more impressive 5.1 expected points per start which ranks sixth amongst forwards across these Gameweeks behind highly owned forwards such as Bamford of Leeds and Watkins of Aston Villa. The main reason for this is how Ings is providing chances for other Southampton teammates on top of the existing goal threat with the English forward averaging 1.14 key passes per game, ranked fifth amongst forwards. Across the first ten Gameweeks of the season, Southampton averaged 1.7 points per game and Ings returned 6.71 points per start again showing that if Hassenhutl can change the form around Ings has the potential to offer even more returns than in recent Gameweeks.
On top of the strong form and how important Danny Ings is to the Southampton attack, the upcoming fixtures could allow a return to the form seen earlier in the season. Using the Hub’s Fixture Ticker Southampton currently have the best run of fixtures over the next four Gameweeks. These fixtures include a Double Gameweek of Chelsea and Leeds in Gameweek 25 followed by Everton and Sheffield United away and Brighton at home before a Blank Gameweek in Gameweek 29. There is also the possibility that additional fixtures can be added in upcoming Gameweeks but this is yet to be confirmed. With Danny Ings being so important to the Southampton attack with a goal involvement of 44%, the highest out of any Southampton player, if Southampton are to find their goalscoring form, their talisman is highly likely to be involved.
Thanks for reading – Feel free to message me any questions – Twitter – @FPLTIPZ