This is a brand new members series by @FPLBraveheart - a keen poker player who effectively applies the principles of variance and probability to play FPL. With several top rank finishes to his name, Braveheart does to devastating effect. One of the main concepts he uses is xFPL - I'll leave him to explain what it is, why it's important and which picks it predicts will do well this Gameweek.
There has been a lot of discussion in the FPL Community recently about what value, if any, should be given to expected goals, assists and clean sheets. There will be some who are not interested in what might have been; their focus is on cold hard points. However, I think that there is value in looking at each player's expected scores to see whether they are over or underperforming against probability. No single statistic should ever be taken in a vacuum but I think xFPL is useful for identifying players just before they start a purple patch. For example, I have been using this metric for two years and it has had a number of successes: in 2016/17 it helped me bring in Josh King just before his excellent run at the end of that season, likewise in 2017/18 it helped me identify Xherdan Shaqiri as a player just about to explode.
What is xFPL?
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