Will any of the promoted teams have what it takes to stay up this season?
Oli Poole | Tue 16 Jul 2024
Leicester, Ipswich and Southampton are the three new teams who will compete in the Premier League this season after promotion from the Championship.
But which of them – if any – have what it takes to stay in the division? We take a look at the stats to help Fantasy Premier League (FPL) fans and other fantasy managers assess if their players are worth investing in this season.
For this article, we’ve analysed data from the five previous Championship seasons, plus the stats from each of the promoted teams in 2023/24.
How many Championship teams survived their first Premier League season?
Seven out of 15 promoted teams have stayed up since the 2019/20 Premier League season.
Coming up via the playoffs is not a disadvantage, with three out of five clubs staying up after winning the ‘richest game in football’.
At least one team per season has avoided relegation in this time, apart from the last Premier League campaign when Luton, Burnley and Sheffield United ended up in the bottom three.
This trio was, unsurprisingly, ranked worst for total FPL points.
Do Championship stats give us a clue about who will stay up?
We looked at a range of Championship stats as part of our analysis – goals scored, conceded, expected goals (xG) and expected goals conceded (xGC). The goal tallies of each top scorer were also taken into account.
The numbers varied significantly for clubs who survived relegation in their next season. This shows other factors, such as recruitment, will have a big say in deciding their fate.
But there were some trends, with successful sides averaging better xG and goals scored in their promotion year. They also conceded fewer goals than teams who went straight back down again.
The advantage of having a top striker
Having a quality goalscorer helps, with the talismen of successful sides averaging 26 goals.
None of this season’s promoted teams can match this, with Southampton’s Adam Armstrong managing 21 before the playoffs and Leicester’s Jamie Vardy 18.
Jamie Vardy. Picture by Getty Images
Conor Chaplin and Nathan Broadhead each scored 13 for Ipswich, which may be a concern for manager Kieran McKenna.
Ipswich shared the goals around though, scoring 92 on their way to promotion. It was the most goals of the promoted teams and the third best total since 2018/19.
No promoted team in the time period we analysed stayed in the Premier League having had a Championship top scorer who netted fewer than 16 goals.
But as Norwich found out twice, this isn’t the be all and end all. Teemu Pukki scored 29 and 26 goals in the Championship but the Canaries were relegated the following seasons.
Aleksandar Mitrovic scored 26 goals for Fulham in the 2019/20 Championship but managed just three in the Premier League as Fulham finished 18th.
It was a different story two years later. He came into the Premier League on the back of a record 43 goal haul and scored 14 times. The Cottagers finished 10th.
Aleksandar Mitrovic, left. Picture by Getty Images.
Leicester stand the best chance?
Overall, Leicester come closest to ticking every statistical box in comparison to successful Championship graduates. Only their top scorer ranked below average.
Ipswich trailed for average xG, xGC, top scorer goals and goals conceded, although their xg and xGC sit within the ranges of successful promoted clubs.
Southampton’s main problems were their xGC and goals conceded.
The playoff winners let in 63 goals, the 11th worst total in the league. It was 14 more than their xGC of 49, a level which does encouragingly fall within the range of successful sides, so all is not lost.
The ‘ideal’ promoted team
Three clubs managed a top 10 Premier League finish immediately after getting promoted.
Fulham finished 10th in 2022/23, Leeds ninth in 2020/21 and Sheffield United ninth in 2019/20. They all finished in the top 10 for total FPL points.
They had an average Championship xG of 85.4, xGC of 41.1, 87 goals scored and 39.6 conceded – but Fulham’s stellar 106 goal season helped to inflate these figures.
None of this year’s promoted clubs can match the expected data, although Leicester came very close for both xG and xGC.
Leicester and Ipswich bettered the goals scored average and Southampton matched it, potentially a good foundation for a successful Premier League effort.
The best-performing Championship teams in recent years and their promotion stats, compared to this year’s promoted teams
Why have promoted sides failed to stay in the Premier League?
There are several themes that help to explain why promoted teams have been relegated in recent seasons.
Player purchases
Getting the right recruitment strategy has been crucial, something that is easier said than done.
Lack of recruitment, late buys and poor choices have contributed to the downfall of many clubs.
When Norwich were relegated in 2021/22, nine of their starting 11 had lined up in their final Championship game. Manager at the time Daniel Farke said they had overachieved in their previous two seasons and staying up was a ‘third miracle beyond our reach’.
Fulham fans blamed late recruitment and a shortage of attacking options, among other issues, for their relegation in 2020/21.
A new signing in Matheus Pereira was West Brom’s star in the same year, however they were lacking up front and a defensive midfielder did not arrive in the summer.
Burnley reportedly spent more than £100m under Vincent Kompany but most signings lacked Premier League experience.
And Sheffield United’s 2023/24 season did not get off to the best start when star man Iliman Ndiaye departed. The Blades were unable to sign a replacement of his quality – although the number of goals conceded was ultimately a major problem too.
Iliman Ndiaye. Picture by Getty Images
Manager troubles
Marco Silva was credited for transforming Fulham’s fortunes following their relegation.
Scott Parker had been criticised for his defensive tactics but there were no such complaints with Silva, who has kept them comfortably in the league for the last two seasons.
Contrast that with Watford, who had three managers in 2021/22, and it’s easy to see how getting the right person at the helm goes a long way.
The Hornets spent £22m in January, and brought in Roy Hodgson with just a week of the window left, a recipe for disaster having previously replaced experienced players with inexperienced ones.
Turning to the season ahead, Leicester already face a challenge having seen Enzo Maresca, who transformed their tactics to bring them back up, move to Chelsea.
Ipswich looked set to lose McKenna too, only for the Northern Irishman to sign a new long-term contract. This stability should help them.
Kieran McKenna. Picture by Getty Images
Losing loanees
Burnley won the Championship with significant help from loan stars, including Taylor Harwood-Bellis, Nathan Tella and Ian Maatsen. None of these players returned for the Clarets’ Premier League season.
This year’s promoted clubs have already fared better.
Omari Hutchinson was an important player for Ipswich last season and they have secured him on a permanent deal.
Likewise, Harwood-Bellis, who spent last season on loan at Southampton, has been signed by Saints after they triggered a purchase clause in his contract.
They are also reportedly closing in on resigning Flynn Downes but whether they can keep hold of David Brooks is unclear.
Leicester don’t have any major loanees to retain but financial fair play could be an issue, with a potential points deduction looming.
Taylor Harwood-Bellis. Picture by Getty Images
Will any of the promoted teams stay up in 2024/25?
While the stats highlight some trends, it is too early to say whether the promoted clubs will stay up.
The summer will play a major part in giving each club the best possible chance of staying up.
Clubs that have come up before them have demonstrated survival – and in some cases top 10 finishes – is possible if everything comes together.
All three clubs have reasons to be optimistic, however they each have their own challenges that they will have to overcome in the months ahead.
From a fantasy perspective, budget options will likely emerge ahead of the new season but caution is advised, with strikers in particular unlikely to match their previous returns.
Southampton have the best fixtures of the promoted clubs – they rank third best for their opening six games.
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