Double Gameweek 24 FPL tips. @RichP_FPL uses FPL points to unearth the key players for consideration for the impending double Gameweek!
Today we will look specifically at the four teams with a double Gameweek 24 from a ‘Using FPL Points as a Metric’ point of view. We will look at the data provided for these specific fixtures, taking the information from the Points Per Game (PPG) sheet and Hub OPTA data and using it to try and help us identify targets to bring in. You will see tables for Fantasy Points both For and Against – Green is good and red is bad in both tables. Green indicates a team is either scoring lots of FPL Points at this position or is conceding lots of FPL Points to this position. We will start off with Burnley’s fixtures:
In terms of Fantasy Points For (FPF), Burnley, or Nick Pope (£5.5m) in particular, are ranked first for most FPL Points scored by goalkeepers when they play away averaging 5.7 PPG on the road. They are ranked 10th at home, averaging 3.5 PPG. He comes up against Crystal Palace (Away) and Fulham (Home). Palace are only giving up 2.7 PPG to opposition goalkeepers when they play at home, and a Fulham side who are giving up the fourth most FPL Points to opposition on the road, at 4.8 PPG. If Palace are again without talisman Wilfried Zaha (£7.1m), Burnley could well keep a clean sheet here, and also against Fulham. Only West Brom (9) have had less shots on target than Palace (11) in the last four games, and Fulham haven’t been much better (13). It is worth noting however, that only Southampton have conceded more shots on target (27) than Burnley (26) over the last four, and the 9-0 defeat to Manchester United plays a big part in this. I still think Pope is a solid shout though.
Burnley’s defence have been pretty average in terms of the metric, ranked 11th both home and away for FPF. Palace are 14th for FPL Points conceded to opposition defensive units at home (averaging 12.1 PPG), with Fulham averaging 17.6 PPG when they play away. We’ve looked at attacking numbers of both these opponents above, so here I’ll highlight likelihood of attacking returns from Burnley defenders. Palace over the last four weeks have conceded the most chances from headers (18), with Fulham second on 11. In terms of chances conceded from Set Pieces, Palace are joint third on 16, and Fulham are fifth on 15. Towering defenders like Ben Mee (£5.0m) and James Tarkowski (£5.3m) could benefit here if Burnley are in a position to create these sorts of chances. Palace are also top for chances conceded down their left flank and third for chances conceded down their right flank, so both Burnley full backs get also get joy. Fulham are ranked fifth for chances conceded down their left flank, so there may be more chance of returns from Matthew Lowton (£4.5m) who operates on Burnley’s right-hand side.
In respect to Burnley’s midfield and attack, there isn’t much to shout about. Chris Wood (£6.2m) has missed the last two games with a hamstring injury and could be set to miss out again. It is worth noting that Palace are second for most FPL Points conceded to opposition forwards when they play at home (8.6 PPG) and Fulham are fourth for FPL Points conceded to opposition forwards when they play away (6.9 PPG). If you manage to select the correct Burnley forward, it could be a lovely differential.
Everton are playing at home in both their games, and their goalkeepers average 2.7 PPG when they play at home. Whilst Fulham give up 4.8 PPG to goalkeepers when they play away, I wouldn’t expect anyone to bring in an Everton keeper for this gameweek, as their second fixture is against Manchester City. Fulham have conceded 14 chances down their right flank in the last four and Man City have conceded a league low of four chances on that side over the same time period. I think Everton assets could be signed with the Fulham fixture in mind, and you consider the game against City as an extra one or two points. Lucas Digne (£6.1m) could be a good option, but if you’re looking at defenders to bring in this week, you’re probably looking at Burnley and Man City defenders, if you don’t have them already. Digne aside, James Rodriguez (£7.7m) and Dominic Calvert-Lewin (£7.7m) are probably the only worthwhile Everton players worth considering for this double. Everton forwards average 7.7 PPG when they play at home and with Calvert-Lewin starting to come into a bit of form, he could do well, as Fulham are fourth for FPL Points conceded to opposition forwards when they play away (6.9 PPG). With the number of options available in midfield, and him being a doubt for Everton’s FA Cup tie, you’d be forgiven for avoiding Rodriguez.
Alphonse Areola (£4.5m) could be a nice budget friendly option for a double Gameweek keeper if you can’t stretch to Nick Pope. He’s fifth overall for saves this season with 77 from 104 shots on target faced. Burnley have only managed 12 shots on target over the last four weeks, with Everton only managing 14. Defensively, Fulham haven’t been too bad recently, with two clean sheets in their last four games. As above with the defenders, you’re likely after Burnley or Man City defenders if you don’t have them already. An under the radar alternative could be Antonee Robinson (£4.4m). Over the last four gameweeks, Burnley have conceded the second most chances down their right flank (18) and Everton have conceded 17 chances. Whilst Fulham haven’t used Robinson’s side that frequently (the majority of Fulham’s chance creation is centrally), they could decide to target this weakness of both opponents. The obvious caveat here is that Fulham are averaging 9.1 PPG on the road as a defensive unit.
In terms of Fulham attackers, I’ve dug into the stats a bit to look at potential options. Over the last four weeks, Ademola Lookman (£5.0m) is joint first with Ruben Loftus-Cheek (£5.9m) and Ivan Cavaleiro (£5.3m) on nine. Lookman has also created three big chances, and as he’s the cheapest I feel like he’s the best option in terms of Fulham attackers. I wouldn’t be looking at anyone else. Everton at home give up an average of 20.8 PPG to opposition midfield units, which is the third most in the league, so Lookman could be a shrewd differential.
I think Manchester City assets have been talked about to death and I can understand why. They’re by far the best team in the league and in terms of our metric, it’s pretty clear they are valuable assets; first for FPL Points scored in defence and midfield both home and away. Whilst some of that midfield total can be attributed to them playing without a player classified as a Forward for most of the season, they are still incredibly impressive. If you are looking at a goalkeeper move this week and can stretch to him, Ederson (£6.1m) isn’t a bad shout at all. Whilst he’ll rarely get save points or bonus, he’s as nailed as they come, and when you consider the risks of rotation some of the City defenders come with, you don’t have to worry about him. Neither of this week’s opponents offer much in terms of FPL Points conceded to Goalkeepers, ranked 18th and 15th specifically in these fixtures, but City have conceded the least shots, least shots on target and least shots in the box over the last four gameweeks. Only West Brom (21) have taken less shots than Spurs (31, 14 on target) over the last four, and Everton aren’t much higher on 35 (14 on target). If we take a quick look at defenders, Ruben Dias (£6.1m) appears to be the most nailed defender, and Joao Cancelo (£6m) can often be found roaming in midfield. In terms of attacking threat he is the best bet, but can be prone to random rotation. Again, the metric pits City against two teams that are not conceding loads of FPL Points to defenders, but City are so strong it would be no surprise to see them keep two clean sheets.
Looking at their attack now, Ilkay Gundogan (£6m) tops all shots metrics for City midfielders and forwards since Gameweek 18. In that timeframe he’s also created three big chances. He is incredible value at his price point and coming up against an Everton side that are giving up 20.8 PPG to opposition midfield units when they play at home, he’s a legitimate captaincy option. Second to Gundogan in these metrics is Raheem Sterling (£11.6m), who could be an explosive differential option. Four goals and an assist in his last five games mean he is in form and is only 12.5% owned at time of writing. After an explosive display against Liverpool, Phil Foden (£6.1m) could also be worth a punt if he doesn’t play in the midweek FA Cup game. However we can never be sure with Pep Roulette, so he is a risk. The same could be said for Gabriel Jesus (£9.2m) who is also in and out of the team.
Well there we have it. I hope you’ve found this interesting and would love to hear your thoughts on it! Drop me a follow @RichP_FPL.