No Hits:

With five free transfers this round, I don’t think anyone should be taking a hit.

If you can field a starting eleven with all players practically certain to start then that should be good enough.

I see no problem with taking one or two hits (maximum) to bring in high ceiling players in order to chase rank. However, the avenues for points are far more restricted at this stage in Euro 2020 Fantasy.

The assumption my theories will be based on:

1. England vs Italy final
2. The Italy vs Spain game will be far closer than most are anticipating

I ran a poll which revealed 88.4% of people believe Italy are going to win. It’s not representative of everyone’s opinion but it conveys Italy as the heavy favourites, with the bookies in agreement of that result.

Italy vs Spain:

The Spanish have real quality going forward with the likes of Ferran Torres.

Luis Enrique is also a very good coach. Whilst it’s arguable he achieved what he did at Barcelona solely due to the talent at his disposal, many managers have inherited great squads and failed. He not only passed that test but did so with flying colours, producing one of the best Barcelona sides of all time.

The job he has done with the national team is a completely different one. Enrique was tasked with a rebuild, rather than to win trophies instantly.

This Spanish side are not the calibre of a Semi Final team, yet they have come this far. I’m not saying they are a bad side but there have been better teams at this tournament, at least on paper.

Pau Torres isn’t of the quality required to play at this level. He has made Aymeric Laporte look far worse than he is due to his positional sense, and isn’t physical enough, especially in one on one duels.

I expect there will be some counter arguments to my perspective given he won the Europe League with Villareal. Yet the Spaniard was lucky against Switzerland to get away with his glaring error.

Enrique is likely to tweak the system to accommodate for this. He’ll probably deploy a 4-3-3 off the ball with a deep lying number six and two number eights covering the pockets. This will be coupled with zonal marking which is more effective against highly technical midfields.

However, I don’t think Italy are as good as people think they are and with Leonardo Spinazzola out, even more so.

Belgium should have beaten Italy from a tactical perspective. Martinez set them up perfectly (for the first 70 minutes) to counter the Italian 4-3-3.

Going 3-4-1-2 off the ball, Martinez ensured the wide forwards didn’t press but rather cut passing lanes to minimalise the time and space the Italian midfield had to operate. If Youri Tielemans and Thorgan Hazard didn’t perform so poorly, they probably would have won.

Lorenzo Insigne and Federico Chiesa are by far the main threat to Spain’s defence.

I don’t think Ciro Immobile offers much positionally and he has a lack of pace and movement. With Enrique only really having to accommodate for the wide areas, it limits Italy’s danger significantly. 

Whilst the Italian defence has been solid and Gianluigi Donnarumma has been exceptional, a reshuffle this late in the tournament can always disrupt a settled unit and allow room for some mistakes.

Spain can score and win this game but I think Italy will edge it. Chiesa and Insigne will operate as inside forwards, and when they drift enough to create an inside overload, exposure of the centrebacks could lead to Spain’s demise. 

As such, hedging your bets and owning plays from both sides is the best way to go. I wouldn’t recommend Spanish defenders though!