Fantasy Premier League transfer trends and tips each Gameweek from Nima Kafai (overall rank 1,102 in the 19/20 season). Nima reviews the FPL transfer trends each Gameweek and uses the Hub’s OPTA, Prediction, Comparison and Fixture tools to help you identify the best FPL transfers and top tips for Gameweek 6.
Check out our Ultimate Guide to FPL Gameweek 6 for all the key information, stats and tips you need going into the weekend’s action.
Thank you for all the feedback on last week’s debut article in the series. Going forwards, I shall still highlight the top six transfers in and out but the more detailed analysis will be focusing only on the top three or four. There will also be a transfer rating to conclude how good a buy each player is in my opinion. Without further ado, onto Gameweek 6.
Gameweek 6 – Top transfers in
These are the six most transferred IN players in the lead up to Gameweek 6:
Heung-Min Son (£9.3m) – Tottenham Hotspur
Fixture: Burnley (a)
After five Gameweeks, Spurs are currently third in the Premier League for xG (11.38xG) with only Liverpool and Everton above them. Spurs have managed to score 15 goals in their previous four fixtures (seven goals and two assists for Son in this period).
Son is the second-highest FPL points scorer in the 20/21 FPL season with 58 points. Only last week, he cost £9.0m with his ownership as low as 26.3%. However, the injury to Kevin De Bruyne (£11.5m) seems to have led to a big surge in ownership with the South Korean international already costing £9.3m with further price rises seemingly inevitable this week.
Spurs rank third on the Fixture Ticker for their next three fixtures vs Burnley (a), Brighton (H) and West Bromich Albion (a). With both the goal-scoring form and incredible upcoming fixtures, if you do not already have a Spurs attacker in your team then this should be a priority transfer.
Son’s conversion rates may appear unsustainable for the season with seven goals from 12 shots according to our OPTA stats tool. He has consistently outperformed his xG with clinical finishing over the past four Premier League seasons. I would recommend having some exit plans in place for Gameweek 9 onwards though as the fixtures turn very nasty.
Transfer rating: having at least one Spurs attacker in your team is a priority transfer, especially if you have not sold the likes of De Bruyne yet.
Harry Kane (£10.7m) –Tottenham Hotspur
Fixture: Burnley (a)
Kane has shown that he is back to his best this season. He delivered yet again in Gameweek 5 with two goals and an assist from a total of 6 shots with his third double-figure points return in just five fixtures. This puts Kane firmly into first place as the top-scoring player in FPL with 60 points.
With a total of five goals and seven assists, his ownership is rising very fast (23.5% in last week’s article). Interestingly, Kane has now matched his highest ever assists tally in a Premier League season after just five fixtures! Over the next three fixtures, he is a strong captaincy option.
According to our OPTA stats tool, he has had 25 Shots, 16 Shots in the Box and 13 Shots on Target over these first five Gameweeks and is taking only 17.8 minutes per chance. Kane’s big appeal for me is that he is also topping chance creation statistics and not just the underlying goal scoring statistics. Kane ranks first for passes into the final third this season (31) amongst forwards in FPL. For comparison, Danny Ings (£8.5m) is the next highest in second place with only 13 passes.
Kane is still relatively low ownership in comparison to his teammate Son. Both are rising in very fast in effective ownership but there were only 15% of FPL managers who had both players in their teams going into Gameweek 5. Our Predicted Points tool has Kane as second only to Salah between Gameweek 6 and 9.
Transfer rating: priority transfer into your teams, I would rank Kane above Son in terms of urgency and predicted points return over the next four fixtures.
Dominic Calvert Lewin (£7.6m) – Everton
Fixture: Southampton (a)
Calvert-Lewin has not only scored in every single fixture this season but has also created the highest number of Big Chances (8) in the last four Gameweeks according to our OPTA stats tool. He is currently on a total of 43 points (behind only premium-priced options in Kane, Son and Salah). The new England international is also still first for xG (4.44).
Everton is a team that has been completely revitalised under Carlo Ancellotti. So far this season they are second for xG with 11.4xG and only Liverpool (12.74xG) are above them. Calvert-Lewin’s rich goal-scoring vein of form does not look to be drying up. He has scored a hat trick vs West Ham in the Carabao Cup as well as scoring on his first start for England.
Ancelotti has made comparisons to Inzaghi who he managed at AC Milan; one of the best finishers in football. Calvert-Lewin’s fantastic start to the season looks to continue as he has not only significantly improved his one-touch finishing but is also getting into all the right goal-scoring positions.
Even if you do not own him yet, more points are coming and he is arguably the stand-out value option even at £7.7m. The England international ranks first for xG (4.44), despite no penalties in his repertoire. He also has impressive underlying stats with 20 Shots (4th), 17 Shots in the Box (2nd), 12 Shots on Target (2nd) and 8 Big Chances (1st). Having started the season at £7m he has rapidly risen to £7.7m in price and shows no signs of slowing down.
Transfer rating: An absolute must-have at a fantastic price point that you will want to keep in your team over the medium to long-term.
Jack Grealish (£7.2m) – Aston Villa
Fixture: Leeds (H)
Aston Villa have caught many FPL managers by surprise this season. They are coming off the back of four consecutive wins and are the only Premier League side to not have dropped any points.
Grealish, as we outlined last week, is the talisman player for Villa! He has taken nine shots and created 14 chances in their four fixtures. Something to note is that he has only taken 2 Shots on Target in the last two games. On occasion, it looks like he is trying to pass and assist rather than attempt to score himself.
Although four games is a small sample size, we can already see the impact of a much stronger squad around Grealish in comparison to last season. He is averaging 9.5 penalty area touches per game (2nd) in comparison to only 3.8 penalty area touches per game last season. He is also averaging 3.5 key passes per game (2nd).
In the short term, the back to back home matches against Leeds and Southampton for Aston Villa is fantastic. Longer-term, they only face one top-six side between now and Gameweek 15. Villa are first on the Fixture Ticker for ‘Attack’ between Gameweek 6 and Gameweek 11 (Ticker at the end of the article).
Transfer rating: Looks great with fantastic form and brilliant fixtures through until Gameweek 15. However, Ross Barkley (£5.9m MID), John McGinn (£5.5m MID) and Ollie Watkins (£6.0m FWD) are cheaper alternatives if you cannot fund Grealish but still want to be part of the Aston Villa party.
Emi Martinez (£4.8m) – Aston Villa
Fixture: Leeds (H)
Villa are first on the Fixture Ticker for ‘Defence’ between Gameweek 6 and Gameweek 11 (Ticker at the end of the article).
Transfer rating: if you are on Wildcard or have no other fires to put out then it is a worthy upgrade on your existing keeper. He is the best Goalkeeper option in my opinion.
James Rodríguez (£7.8m) – Everton
Fixture: Southampton (a)
Rodriguez continues ticking along after grabbing another assist vs Liverpool last weekend. He has managed to return three goals and three assists so far. Playing very much as the talisman at Everton, he has created 10 chances in the last four fixtures according to our OPTA stats tool. Last time Richarlison (£7.9m) was out, Rodriguez played much higher up the pitch too which bodes well for him whilst Richarlison is suspended for the next three fixtures.
Transfer rating: if you do not already own him he is an exciting creative pick who I expect to continue racking up assists and the odd goals here and there (he could also have penalty duties while Richarlison is suspended). I believe he should be in addition to Calvert-Lewin in your team as opposed to instead of.
Gameweek 6 – Top transfers out
These are the six most transferred OUT players in the lead up to Gameweek 6:
Virgil van Dijk (£6.5m) – Liverpool
Fixture: Sheffield United (H)
Van Dijk is facing a lengthy spell on the sidelines in what is a massive blow for the Premier League champions in their 2020/21 season title defence. He is awaiting knee surgery for his ACL and will be facing a minimum of six to eight months on the sidelines during rehab. His absence really dampens Liverpool’s defence as a whole and so it may soon be time to reinvest funds out of Trent or Robertson.
Transfer rating: Due to the £6.5m price, it is an immediate sell in my opinion. This could be either for another semi-premium defender or for a cheaper defender to raise funds to strengthen the rest of your squad. Currently, these defenders are either in my team or on my watchlist: Robertson, Chilwell, Digne, Castagne, Konsa/Mings, Masuaku, Dallas/Ayling and Saiss/Kilman.
Kevin De Bruyne (£11.5m) – Manchester City
Fixture: West Ham (a)
Since last week’s article was written, De Bruyne has gone from over 40.6% ownership down to 18.8% ownership! In this time we’ve heard from Pep Guardiola in several interviews that De Bruyne is expected back in the “next weeks.”
Manchester City had a shaky start to the season, including a surprise 5-2 defeat at the hands of Leicester City at the Etihad. De Bruyne was unfortunate to not return points for holders and the many FPL managers who captained him in Gameweeks 3 and 4, as he had fantastic underlying numbers.
Despite having only played three fixtures, he was first for chances created (14) this season before missing Gameweek 5 vs Arsenal due to the injury in question. He was also taking on goal attempts at a good rate with 11 Shots, five Shots in the Box and four Shots on Target in the three fixtures he did play.
Transfer rating: priority transfer out for another premium player such as Sterling (£11.5m), Bruno (£10.5m), Salah (£12.3m), Mane (£11.9m) or Son (£9.3m). Alternatively, if you are happy with the premiums that you own, De Bruyne can be used to raise funds for the likes of Kane or Aguero in your front three.
Jamie Vardy (£10m) – Leicester City
Fixture: Arsenal (a)
Vardy has managed an impressive five goals in the four fixtures he played this season. It must be said that four of those five goals were from the penalty spot. He has not necessarily looked very lively in terms of underlying attacking statistics, for example in a recent fixture he had fewer touches in the opposition box than James Justin (£4.8m) a defender on his team.
Vardy has shown his Premier League goal scoring calibre over many seasons since the Leicester title win of 2015/16 season. He also won the Golden Boot just last season with 23 goals. However, the upcoming four fixtures for Leicester are not the most enticing with Arsenal (a), Leeds (a), Wolves (H) and Liverpool (a).
Leicester have looked very out of form and injuries to the likes of Wilfred Ndidi (£4.9m) in the midfield plus the lack of minutes for James Maddison (£7m) has left a lot to be desired with back to back losses vs West Ham and Aston Villa in recent weeks.
He missed the match in Gameweek 5 due to his ongoing injury and will face a late fitness test this weekend vs Arsenal in Gameweek 6. With the upcoming fixtures, lack of fluidity at Leicester in recent weeks and the value emerging in Kane (£10.7m) it is a good transfer out in my opinion and shown by our Player Comparison tool.
Transfer rating: I believe Vardy will do well this season and score lots of goals, but my recommendation is to move him out for Kane. The attacking stats comparison above shows the sheer magnitude in the difference between their underlying numbers so far this season. At above a £10.0m price point I would want to be able to captain a player and I do not see any reason to captain Vardy in the upcoming run.
Alexander-Arnold (£7.5m) – Liverpool
Fixture: Sheffield United (H)
I can see the appeal in moving on from Alexander-Arnold considering that he is the most expensive defender in FPL and has not returned consistently in comparison to his very high price tag. Lots of cheaper options have emerged who are looking fantastic value in the cheaper brackets of defenders. Even his teammate Andy Robertson (£7.1m) is looking better value and more likely to get attacking returns than Trent according to our Player Comparison tool.
Sheffield United are currently 19th in the table and have only scored two goals in their last four games. The Blades have not been performing anywhere near the levels from last season with some defensive injuries and having lost Dean Henderson back to Manchester United.
As we saw earlier, without Van Dijk, Liverpool is going to struggle to get clean sheets but at least over the next one or two fixtures, it feels best to hold the transfer out. I would not recommend getting rid of Trent ahead of his next two fixtures (Sheffield United and West Ham; both at Anfield). This places Liverpool third in the Fixture Ticker for ‘Defence’ over the next two Gameweeks.
Transfer rating: My recommendation is to hold for at least the home match vs Sheffield and or West Ham in Gameweeks 6 and 7 respectively. If I was on a wildcard, I would look to change Trent to Roberston to save the £0.4m. With both Alisson and Van Dijk out injured, I can see the appeal of saving funds and moving on from Liverpool defence altogether in favour of cheaper defenders and funds to strengthen the rest of your squad.
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (£11.8m) – Arsenal
Fixture: Leicester (H)
Aubameyang is a talisman player for Arsenal having scored 22 goals in consecutive seasons. Sadly, even the Gooner in me recognises that Aubameyang is simply not providing value at £11.8m on the wing taking an average of 1.2 shots a game. Tom Worville from the Athletic sent out a pretty damming tweet which paints the full picture: “Aubameyang is currently averaging 1.2 shots (46th in the league) and 0.07 xG (63rd) per 90 minutes after five games“
Transfer rating: if you are still holding onto Aubameyang, it is time to move on as not only are his underlying attacking numbers abysmal but Arsenal as a whole is ranked close to bottom for chance creation in the entire Premier League. You can make your money work a lot harder for you by moving to any of the abundance of midfielders with better form and fixtures on their side.
Richarlison de Andrade (£7.9m) – Everton
Fixture: Southampton (a)
Earning himself a red card in the Merseyside Derby, Richarlison is now banned until after the next international break which ends on Sat 21st November. Before the suspension, he was showing some fantastic attacking numbers and had penalty duties in his locker. It will be interesting to see if Alex Iwobi (£5.9m) can fill the void that Richarlison leaves over the next three fixtures for the revitalised and reborn Everton team.
We may be in a scenario where Richarlison is back from suspension and costs less to buy than Calvert-Lewin. He could be a tasty differential later in the season considering his penalty duties too.
Transfer rating: he is a priority transfer out with his suspension until 21st November. The long list of players that I either currently own or have firmly on my watchlist as replacements are: Kane, Kun Aguero (£10.4m), Calvert Lewin, Watkins, Neil Maupay (£6.6m) and Michael Antonio (£6.3m).
Fixture Ticker schedule for best transfers in of attacking players
Here is a view of the upcoming six Gameweeks where teams are ordered based on the leakiness of the defences they face. You can access this on the Hub’s Fixture Ticker to play around and adjust filters if you want to get inspiration for which teams to be targeting in the medium term with your transfers.
Fixture Ticker schedule for best transfers in of defensive players
Here is a view of the upcoming six Gameweeks where teams are ordered based on the potency of the attacks they face:
Good luck with Gameweek 6!
If you are looking to follow more of my content, follow me on Twitter. Thank you so much for your support!
Don’t forget to check out our Ultimate Guide to FPL Gameweek 6 for all the key information, stats and tips you need going into the weekend’s action.